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Ecological niche models for sand fly species and predicted distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in Bahia state, Brazil

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Abstract

Visceral leishmaniasis is a public health problem in Brazil. This disease is endemic in most of Bahia state, with increasing reports of cases in new areas. Ecological niche models (ENM) can be used as a tool for predicting potential distribution for disease, vectors, and to identify risk factors associated with their distribution. In this study, ecological niche models (ENMs) were developed for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases and 12 sand fly species captured in Bahia state. Sand fly data was collected monthly by CDC light traps from July 2009 to December 2012. MODIS satellite imagery was used to calculate NDVI, NDMI, and NDWI vegetation indices, MODIS day and night land surface temperature (LST), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and 19 Bioclim variables were used to develop the ENM using the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Mean diurnal range was the variable that most contributed to all the models for sand flies, followed by precipitation in wettest month. For Lutzomyia longipalpis (L. longipalpis), annual precipitation, precipitation in wettest quarter, precipitation in wettest month, and NDVI were the most contributing variables. For the VL model, the variables that contributed most were precipitation in wettest month, annual precipitation, LST day, and temperature seasonality. L. longipalpis was the species with the widest potential distribution in the state. The identification of risk areas and factors associated with this distribution is fundamental to prioritize resource allocation and to improve the efficacy of the state’s program for surveillance and control of VL.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank LACEN personnel of the Bahia Ministry of Health for providing the sand fly occurrence data used in this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Pathobiological Sciences, Louisiana State University, Skip Bertman Dr, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA

    Moara de Santana Martins Rodgers & John B. Malone

  2. Department of Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Brazil

    Maria Emilia Bavia, Marta Mariana Nascimento Silva & Deborah Daniela Madureira Trabuco Carneiro

  3. Department of Entomology Surveillance, Laboratorio Central de Saúde Pública da Bahia (LACEN/BA), Salvador, Brazil

    Eduardo Oyama Lins Fonseca & Bruno Oliveira Cova

  4. School of Health, Universidade Salvador (UNIFACS), Salvador, Brazil

    Deborah Daniela Madureira Trabuco Carneiro & Luciana Lobato Cardim

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  1. Moara de Santana Martins Rodgers
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de Santana Martins Rodgers, M., Bavia, M.E., Fonseca, E.O.L. et al. Ecological niche models for sand fly species and predicted distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in Bahia state, Brazil. Environ Monit Assess 191 (Suppl 2), 331 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-019-7431-2

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