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Scenario prediction of emerging coastal city using CA modeling under different environmental conditions: a case study of Lingang New City, China

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Abstract

The world’s coastal regions are experiencing rapid urbanization coupled with increased risk of ecological damage and storm surge related to global climate and sea level rising. This urban development issue is particularly important in China, where many emerging coastal cities are being developed. Lingang New City, southeast of Shanghai, is an excellent example of a coastal city that is increasingly vulnerable to environmental change. Sustainable urban development requires planning that classifies and allocates coastal lands using objective procedures that incorporate changing environmental conditions. In this paper, we applied cellular automata (CA) modeling based on self-adaptive genetic algorithm (SAGA) to predict future scenarios and explore sustainable urban development options for Lingang. The CA model was calibrated using the 2005 initial status, 2015 final status, and a set of spatial variables. We implemented specific ecological and environmental conditions as spatial constraints for the model and predicted four 2030 scenarios: (a) an urban planning-oriented Plan Scenario; (b) an ecosystem protection-oriented Eco Scenario; (c) a storm surge-affected Storm Scenario; and (d) a scenario incorporating both ecosystem protection and the effects of storm surge, called the Ecostorm Scenario. The Plan Scenario has been taken as the baseline, with the Lingang urban area increasing from 45.8 km2 in 2015 to 66.8 km2 in 2030, accounting for 23.9 % of the entire study area. The simulated urban land size of the Plan Scenario in 2030 was taken as the target to accommodate the projected population increase in this city, which was then applied in the remaining three development scenarios. We used CA modeling to reallocate the urban cells to other unconstrained areas in response to changing spatial constraints. Our predictions should be helpful not only in assessing and adjusting the urban planning schemes for Lingang but also for evaluating urban planning in coastal cities elsewhere.

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Acknowledgments

This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project 41406146), the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai Municipality (Project 13ZR1419300), and Shanghai Universities First-class Disciplines Project-Fisheries (A).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai, 201306, China

    Yongjiu Feng

  2. The Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources (Ministry of Education), Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai, 201306, China

    Yongjiu Feng

  3. School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, 4072, Australia

    Yan Liu

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Feng, Y., Liu, Y. Scenario prediction of emerging coastal city using CA modeling under different environmental conditions: a case study of Lingang New City, China. Environ Monit Assess 188, 540 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-016-5558-y

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