Abstract
Earthquakes affect the entire world and have catastrophic consequences. On May 12, 2008, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 on the Richter scale occurred in the Wenchuan area of Sichuan province in China. This event, together with subsequent aftershocks, caused many avalanches, landslides, debris flows, collapses, and quake lakes and induced numerous unstable slopes. This work proposes a methodology that uses a data mining approach and geographic information systems to predict these mass movements based on their association with the main and aftershock epicenters, geologic faults, riverbeds, and topography. A dataset comprising 3,883 mass movements is analyzed, and some models to predict the location of these mass movements are developed. These predictive models could be used by the Chinese authorities as an important tool for identifying risk areas and rescuing survivors during similar events in the future.
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Acknowledgments
I would like to thank Tsinghua University for the financial and logistical support it provided for this study. I also would like to thank the institutions that provided the data used in the study: the Geomechanical Institute (Chinese Ministry of Land and Resources); the China Earthquake Geospatial Research Portal; the University of Colorado Department of Geography; and the Tsinghua University State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering.
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de Souza, F.T. A data-based model to locate mass movements triggered by seismic events in Sichuan, China. Environ Monit Assess 186, 575–587 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-013-3400-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-013-3400-3