Skip to main content
Log in

Unfavourable risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus are already apparent more than a decade before onset in a population-based study of older persons: from the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility—Reykjavik Study (AGES-Reykjavik)

  • Diabetes Mellitus
  • Published:
European Journal of Epidemiology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We evaluated midlife risk factors of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in late life in a population-based study of older persons. A cohort of 2,251 persons, aged 65–96, participated in AGES-Reykjavik in 2002–2004; all attended the Reykjavik Study 26 years earlier, at the mean age of 50. Based on glucometabolic status in 2002–2004 the participants are divided into a normoglycemic control group (n = 1,695), an impaired fasting glucose (IFG) group (n = 313) and T2DM group (n = 243). Change in risk parameters from midlife is evaluated retrospectively in these three groups. Since examined earlier 14.3% of men and 8.2% of women developed T2DM. A family history of diabetes was reported in 39.5% of T2DM compared to 19.3% in both IFG and normoglycemics. The T2DM and IFG groups currently have higher levels of fasting triglycerides, greater body mass index (BMI) and higher systolic blood pressure than normoglycemics and this difference was already apparent in midlife. In late life, two or more metabolic syndrome criteria are present in 60% of the T2DM groups compared to 25% in normoglycemic groups. T2DM with impaired cardiovascular health is more marked in women than men when compared with normoglycemics. Family history and higher levels of BMI, triglycerides and systolic blood pressure in midlife are associated with the development of T2DM in late life, suggesting risk can be evaluated long before onset. A continued rise in risk factors throughout life allows for more aggressive measures in preventing or delaying development of T2DM and its effect on cardiovascular health.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1

Similar content being viewed by others

Abbreviations

AGES-Reykjavik:

Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility—Reykjavik Study

BMI:

Body mass index

CE:

Coronary events

CHD:

Coronary heart disease

CRP:

C-reactive protein

CVD:

Cardiovascular disease

ECG:

Electrocardiograph

HbA1c :

Haemoglobin A1c

HOMAIR :

Homeostasis model assessment: insulin resistance

ICD-10:

International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision

IFG:

Impaired fasting glucose

MI:

Myocardial infarction

MS:

Metabolic syndrome

NCEP:

National Cholesterol Education Program

NHANES:

National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

RS:

Reykjavik Study

SD:

Standard deviation

T2DM:

Type 2 diabetes mellitus

TG:

Triglycerides

WHO:

World Health Organization

References

  1. Zimmet P, Alberti KG, Shaw J. Global and societal implications of the diabetes epidemic. Nature. 2001;414:782–7. doi:10.1038/414782a.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. McCarthy MI. Progress in defining the molecular basis of type 2 diabetes mellitus through susceptibility-gene identification. Hum Mol Genet. 2004;13(Spec No 1):R33–41.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Tuomilehto J, Lindstrom J, Eriksson JG, Valle TT, Hamalainen H, Ilanne-Parikka P, et al. Prevention of type 2 diabetes mellitus by changes in lifestyle among subjects with impaired glucose tolerance. N Engl J Med. 2001;344:1343–50. doi:10.1056/NEJM200105033441801.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Knowler WC, Barrett-Connor E, Fowler SE, Hamman RF, Lachin JM, Walker EA, et al. Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin. N Engl J Med. 2002;346:393–403. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa012512.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Eddy DM, Schlessinger L. Archimedes: a trial-validated model of diabetes. Diabetes Care. 2003;26:3093–101. doi:10.2337/diacare.26.11.3093.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  6. Lindstrom J, Tuomilehto J. The diabetes risk score: a practical tool to predict type 2 diabetes risk. Diabetes Care. 2003;26:725–31. doi:10.2337/diacare.26.3.725.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  7. Meigs JB, Williams K, Sullivan LM, Hunt KJ, Haffner SM, Stern MP, et al. Using metabolic syndrome traits for efficient detection of impaired glucose tolerance. Diabetes Care. 2004;27:1417–26. doi:10.2337/diacare.27.6.1417.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  8. Wilson PW, D’Agostino RB, Levy D, Belanger AM, Silbershatz H, Kannel WB. Prediction of coronary heart disease using risk factor categories. Circulation. 1998;97:1837–47.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Alexander CM, Landsman PB, Teutsch SM, Haffner SM. NCEP-defined metabolic syndrome, diabetes, and prevalence of coronary heart disease among NHANES III participants age 50 years and older. Diabetes. 2003;52:1210–4. doi:10.2337/diabetes.52.5.1210.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. Dehghan A, van Hoek M, Sijbrands EJ, Stijnen T, Hofman A, Witteman JC. Risk of type 2 diabetes attributable to C-reactive protein and other risk factors. Diabetes Care. 2007;30:2695–9. doi:10.2337/dc07-0348.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. Eckel RH, Grundy SM, Zimmet PZ. The metabolic syndrome. Lancet. 2005;365:1415–28. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(05)66378-7.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Harris TB, Launer LJ, Eiriksdottir G, Kjartansson O, Jonsson PV, Sigurdsson G, et al. Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study: multidisciplinary applied phenomics. Am J Epidemiol. 2007;165:1076–87. doi:10.1093/aje/kwk115.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  13. Jonsdottir LS, Sigfusson N, Gudnason V, Sigvaldason H, Thorgeirsson G. Do lipids, blood pressure, diabetes, and smoking confer equal risk of myocardial infarction in women as in men? The Reykjavik Study. J Cardiovasc Risk. 2002;9:67–76. doi:10.1097/00043798-200204000-00001.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  14. World Health Organization. Expert Committee Definition, diagnosis and classification of diabetes mellitus and its complications. Report of a WHO consultation, part 1: diagnosis and classification of diabetes mellitus. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1999.

  15. Matthews DR, Hosker JP, Rudenski AS, Naylor BA, Treacher DF, Turner RC. Homeostasis model assessment: insulin resistance and beta-cell function from fasting plasma glucose and insulin concentrations in man. Diabetologia. 1985;28:412–9. doi:10.1007/BF00280883.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  16. Rose GA, Blackburn H. Cardiovascular survey methods. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1968.

    Google Scholar 

  17. Alberti KG, Zimmet P, Shaw J. Metabolic syndrome—a new world-wide definition. A Consensus Statement from the International Diabetes Federation. Diabet Med. 2006;23:469–80. doi:10.1111/j.1464-5491.2006.01858.x.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. Rifai N, Warnick GR, Dominiczak M, editors. Handbook of lipoprotein testing. 1st ed. Washington DC: AACC Press; 1997.

    Google Scholar 

  19. Harris MI, Flegal KM, Cowie CC, Eberhardt MS, Goldstein DE, Little RR, et al. Prevalence of diabetes, impaired fasting glucose, and impaired glucose tolerance in US adults. The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988–1994. Diabetes Care. 1998;21:518–24. doi:10.2337/diacare.21.4.518.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. Selvin E, Coresh J, Brancati FL. The burden and treatment of diabetes in elderly individuals in the US Diabetes Care. 2006;29:2415–9. doi:10.2337/dc06-1058.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  21. Bjornsdottir S, Rossberger J, Gudbjornsdottir HS, Hreidarsson AB. Treatment pattern and results in an outpatient population with type 2 diabetes in Iceland. Laeknabladid. 2004;90:623–7.

    Google Scholar 

  22. DECODE SG. Age- and sex-specific prevalences of diabetes and impaired glucose regulation in 13 European cohorts. Diabetes Care. 2003;26:61–9. doi:10.2337/diacare.26.1.61.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Forouhi NG, Merrick D, Goyder E, Ferguson BA, Abbas J, Lachowycz K, et al. Diabetes prevalence in England, 2001—estimates from an epidemiological model. Diabet Med. 2006;23:189–97. doi:10.1111/j.1464-5491.2005.01787.x.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  24. Bergsveinsson J, Aspelund T, Gudnason V, Benediktsson R. Prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Iceland 1967–2002. Laeknabladid. 2007;93:397–402.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  25. Berger B, Stenstrom G, Sundkvist G. Incidence, prevalence, and mortality of diabetes in a large population. A report from the Skaraborg Diabetes Registry. Diabetes Care. 1999;22:773–8. doi:10.2337/diacare.22.5.773.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Eiriksdottir G, Smith AV, Aspelund T, Hafsteinsdottir SH, Olafsdottir E, Launer LJ, et al. The interaction of adiposity with the CRP gene affects CRP levels: age, gene/environment susceptibility-Reykjavik study. Int J Obes Lond. 2009;33:267–72. doi:10.1038/ijo.2008.274.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  27. Natarajan S, Liao Y, Sinha D, Cao G, McGee DL, Lipsitz SR. Sex differences in the effect of diabetes duration on coronary heart disease mortality. Arch Intern Med. 2005;165:430–5. doi:10.1001/archinte.165.4.430.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  28. Huxley R, Barzi F, Woodward M. Excess risk of fatal coronary heart disease associated with diabetes in men and women: meta-analysis of 37 prospective cohort studies. BMJ. 2006;332:73–8. doi:10.1136/bmj.38678.389583.7C.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The study is supported by National Institutes of Health contract NO1-AG-1-2100, the National Institute on Aging Intramural Research Program, the Icelandic Government and the Icelandic Heart Association.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Elin Olafsdottir.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Olafsdottir, E., Aspelund, T., Sigurdsson, G. et al. Unfavourable risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus are already apparent more than a decade before onset in a population-based study of older persons: from the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility—Reykjavik Study (AGES-Reykjavik). Eur J Epidemiol 24, 307–314 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-009-9343-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-009-9343-x

Keywords

Navigation