Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The consistency of shingles and its significance for health monitoring

  • Infectious Diseases
  • Published:
European Journal of Epidemiology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Accurate estimation of monitored populations is essential for epidemiological study. Many countries do not have systems of patient registration and routine disease surveillance is thereby hindered. We studied the incidence of shingles over time and investigated the hypothesis that the incidence is consistent and could be used as a proxy for estimating the monitored population. Annual incidence rates of shingles reported in the Weekly Returns Service (WRS) since 1970 and in the Dutch Sentinel Network (DSN) over the period 1998–2001 were studied. Gender specific annual rates (1998–2001) were compared after standardising for age. The population in the DSN was estimated by applying the WRS incidence rates to the numbers of DSN incident cases. The incidence of shingles was annually and seasonally consistent. Incidence in males was similar in both networks and in females approximately 18% greater in the WRS: in age groups 15–64 years, incidence was similar in both networks, but in children 0–14 years and in persons 65 years and over, it was higher in the WRS. The total populations in the DSN estimated from average age/gender specific rates in the WRS were within 12% of the observed in each of the 4 years surveyed. The incidence of shingles in the two countries was sufficiently close to estimate the surveyed population aged 15–64 years from knowledge of incident cases in the community. Routine monitoring of shingles in sentinel practice networks is commended as a method of assuring recording quality and as a means of estimating the survey population where the registered population is not known.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • DM Fleming KW Cross (1999) Comparison and harmonisation of denominator data for primary health care research in countries of the European Community M Schlaud (Eds) Biomedical health research IOS Press Amsterdam 119–120

    Google Scholar 

  • RE. Hope-Simpson (1965) ArticleTitleThe nature of HZ: A long term study and a new hypothesis Proc R Soc Med 58 9–12 Occurrence Handle14267505 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaF2M%2Fnt1Smuw%3D%3D

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Fleming DM, Norbury CA, Crombie DL. Annual and seasonal variation in the incidence of common diseases. Br J Gen Pract 1991; 53.

  • JB Wilson (1986) ArticleTitleThirty one years of herpes zoster in a rural practice. Br Med J 293 1349–1351 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaL2s%2FnslertQ%3D%3D

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • JG Donahue PW Choo JE Manson R Platt (1995) ArticleTitleThe incidence of herpes zoster Arch Intern Med 155 1603–1609 Occurrence Handle10.1001/archinte.155.15.1605

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • W Meister A Neiss G Gross et al. (1998) ArticleTitleDemography, symptomatology, and course of disease in ambulatory zoster patients.A physician-based survey in Germany Intervirology 41 272–277 Occurrence Handle10.1159/000024949 Occurrence Handle10325537 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaK1M3mt1GgsQ%3D%3D

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • U di Luzio Paparatti F Arpinelli G. Visona (1999) ArticleTitleHerpes zoster and its complications in Italy: An observational survey J Infect 38 116–120 Occurrence Handle10342652 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaK1M3nt1Srsg%3D%3D

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • C Chidiac J Bruxelle JP Daures et al. (2001) ArticleTitleCharacteristics of patients with herpes zoster on presentation to practitioners in France Clin Infect Dis 33 62–69 Occurrence Handle10.1086/320884 Occurrence Handle11389496 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DC%2BD3Mzhs1egtQ%3D%3D

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • M Brisson WJ Edmunds B Law et al. (2001) ArticleTitleEpidemiology of varicella zoster virus infection in Canada and the United Kingdom Epidemiol Infect 127 305–314 Occurrence Handle11693508 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DC%2BD3MnjvVSlsg%3D%3D Occurrence Handle10.1017/S0950268801005921

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • EM Nagasako RW Johnson DR Griffin DJ Elpern RH Dworkin (2003) ArticleTitleGeographic and racial aspects of herpes zoster. J Med Virol 70 IssueIDSuppl 1 S20–S23 Occurrence Handle12627482

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • TJ Liesegang (1999) ArticleTitleVaricella viral disease Mayo Clin Proc 74 983–998 Occurrence Handle10918864 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DC%2BD3czovVahuw%3D%3D Occurrence Handle10.4065/74.10.983

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • AA Gershon SP Steinberg L. Gelb (1984) ArticleTitleClinical reinfection with varicella-zoster virus J Infect Dis 149 137–142 Occurrence Handle6321605 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaL2c7jslWisg%3D%3D

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • AK Junker E Angus EE Thomas (1991) ArticleTitleRecurrent varicella-zoster virus infections in apparently immunocompetent children Pediatr Infect Dis J 10 569–575 Occurrence Handle1891288 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaK3MzmslGksA%3D%3D Occurrence Handle10.1097/00006454-199108000-00004

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • K Terada S Kawano Y Shimada Y Yagi N Kataoka (1996) ArticleTitleRecurrent chickenpox after natural reinfection Pediatr Infect Dis J 15 179–181 Occurrence Handle8822299 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaK28vhvFGnsw%3D%3D

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • KA Martin AK Junker EE Thomas MI Van Allen JM Friedman (1994) ArticleTitleOccurrence of chickenpox during pregnancy in women seropositive for varicella-zoster virus J Infect Dis 170 991–995 Occurrence Handle7930746 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaK2M%2Fhs1Smtg%3D%3D

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gershon AA, Takashashi W. In: Plotkin SA, Orenstein WA (eds), Vaccines. Philadelphia: WB Saunders Co, 1999; 477.

  • Thiry N, Beutels P, Shkedy Z, Vranckx R, Vandermeulen C, Wielen Damme PV. The seroepidemiology of primary varicella-zoster virus infection in Flanders (Belgium). Eur J Pediatr. 2002; 161: 588–593. Epub 2002 Sep 24.

    Google Scholar 

  • PE Kilgore D Kruszon-Moran JF Seward et al. (2003) ArticleTitleVaricella in Americans from NHANES III: implications for control through routine immunization J Med Virol 70 IssueID(Suppl 1) S111–S118 Occurrence Handle12627498

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • DM. Fleming (1999) ArticleTitleWeekly returns service of the Royal College of General Practitioners Commun Dis Public Health 2 96–100 Occurrence Handle10402742 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaK1MzjtFWmsQ%3D%3D

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Bartelds AIM, Fracheboud J, van der Zee J. The Dutch sentinel practice network; relevance for public health policy. Netherlands Institute of Primary Health Care Utrecht, The Netherlands.

  • Eurostat. Demographic Statistics 1999. Office for Official Publications of The European Community, Luxembourg.

  • Fleming DM, Cross KW, Cobb WA, Chapman RS. Gender difference in the incidence of shingles Epidemiol Infect 2003; 132; 1–5.

  • DM Fleming FG Schellevis I Falcao TV Alonso LP Padilla (2001) ArticleTitleThe incidence of chickenpox in the community. Eur J Epidemiol 17 1023–1027 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1020066806544 Occurrence Handle12380716 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DC%2BD38nit1GmtQ%3D%3D

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Scottish CMR project ‘Practice Team Information’ http://www.show.scot.nhs.uk/isd/cmr/.

  • K Schmader LK George BM Burchett CF Pieper JS Hamilton (1996) ArticleTitleRacial differences in the occurrences of herpes zoster J Infect Dis 174 329–341

    Google Scholar 

  • Simpson S. 1991 population estimates for areas smaller than districts. Population Trends Winter 1997 Office for National Statistics, London.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Birmingham Research Unit of the Royal College of General Practitioners, B17 9DB, Lordswood House, 54, Lordswood Rd, Harborne, Birmingham, UK

    Douglas M. Fleming, Rachel S. Chapman & Kenneth W. Cross

  2. NIVEL, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Aad Bartelds

Authors
  1. Douglas M. Fleming
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Aad Bartelds
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Rachel S. Chapman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Kenneth W. Cross
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Douglas M. Fleming.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Fleming, D.M., Bartelds, A., Chapman, R.S. et al. The consistency of shingles and its significance for health monitoring. Eur J Epidemiol 19, 1113–1118 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-004-2219-1

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-004-2219-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation