Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Determinants of turnover intentions among Chinese off farm migrants

  • Published:
Economic Change and Restructuring Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of turnover intentions of off farm migrant workers, using data collected from China’s Jiangsu Province. Turnover intention is posited to be a function of demographic/human capital characteristics, job characteristics and job satisfaction. We find that higher levels of education have a positive effect on reported turnover intentions, while higher income and job satisfaction have a negative effect on turnover intentions. To the extent turnover intentions represent a good proxy for actual turnover, the results can be viewed as providing reliable predictors of job mobility among off farm migrant workers at a time when there is a growing shortage of such workers in China’s coastal provinces.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. For a contrary perspective see Henneberger and Sousa-Poza (2007, p. 102) who, using a representative sample of Swiss employees, calculated a Spearman correlation coefficient of just 0.23 between turnover intentions and actual turnover.

  2. Mingong Huang (“Migrant shortage”) Guangzhou Ribao (Guangzhou Daily), 6 August 2004 <http://www.cfen.cn> last accessed 16 December 2004.

  3. Perspectives on price gaming between enterprises and employees. China Financial and Economic News 13 September 2004 <http://www.cfen.cn> last accessed 16 December 2004.

  4. Guangdong jin que mingong baiwan, zhuanjia paoxi ‘mingong jin’ shi da yuanyin (“Shortage of one million migrant workers in Guangdong: experts analyze ten major reasons of ‘a tighter supply of migrant workers.”) Nanfang Ribao (Southern Daily) 4 August 2004 <http://finance.tom.com> last accessed 16 December 2004.

  5. Tao Zhiyong, Deputy Division Chief, Department of Social Security, All-China Federation of Trade Unions, National Social Insurance Administration Workshop, Beijing, August 2006.

  6. “Laboring Over Workers’ Rights.” Beijing Review 46, no. 52 (2003): 52–54.

  7. In preliminary regressions not reported dummy variables denoting the four workshops (treating the assembling workshop as the reference) were included as potential predictors of turnover intention. However, the workshop dummies were not a significant predictor of turnover intention. We dropped the workshop dummies from the final reported results because they were correlated with income.

  8. Chinese Provinces Boost Minimum Wages. September 5, 2006. Available on line at http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/subscriber/newsdetail/7829.html (last accessed September 5, 2006).

  9. Pi Dehai, Deputy Director General of the Social Insurance Administration Centre, National Social Insurance Administration Workshop, Beijing, August 2006.

  10. How Rising Wages are Changing the Game in China. Business Week March 27, 2006. Available online at http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_13/b3977049.htm (accessed November 3, 2006).

References

  • Allen F, Qian J, Qian M (2005) Law, finance, and economic growth in China. J Financ Econ 77:57–116. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.06.010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barboza D (2006) Labor shortage in China may lead to trade shift. New York Times, 3 April

  • Bechtel M (2004) China’s unions take on the challenge of change (part 2): migrant workers and building the future. Guardian 29(September):14

    Google Scholar 

  • Becker G (1975) Human capital: a theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education. University of Chicago Press, Chicago

    Google Scholar 

  • Belzil C (1996) Relative efficiencies and comparative advantages in job search. J Labor Econ 14:154–173. doi:10.1086/209807

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bender K, Donohue S, Heywood J (2005) Job satisfaction and gender segregation. Oxf Econ Pap 57:479–496. doi:10.1093/oep/gpi015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benson P, Pond S (1987) An investigation of the process of employee withdrawal. J Bus Psychol 1:218–229. doi:10.1007/BF01020810

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bo H, Cheng H (2004) Wages racing to the bottom: a migrant worker’s nightmare. South Labor News 29(July):8

    Google Scholar 

  • Cai F (2007) Zhongguo jingji mianlin de zhuanzhe jiqi dui fazhan de tiaozhan [A turning point facing the Chinese economy and its challenge to development and reform], Zhongguo shehui kexue [Social Sciences in China], 3

  • Campbell C (1997) The determinants of dismissals, quits and layoffs: a multinomial logit approach. South Econ J 63:1066–1073. doi:10.2307/1061241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cascio W (1991) Costing human resources: the financial impact of behavior in organizations. PWS Kent, Boston

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen XP, Chun H, Sego D (1998) The role of occupational citizenship behavior in turnover conceptualization and preliminary tests of key hypotheses. J Appl Psychol 83:922–931. doi:10.1037/0021-9010.83.6.922

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiu C-K, Lin C-P, Yuan HT, Hsiao C-Y (2005) Modeling turnover intentions and their antecedents using the locus of control as a moderator: a case of customer service employees. Hum Resour Dev Q 16:481–499. doi:10.1002/hrdq.1152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiu RK, Francesco AM (2003) Dispositional traits and turnover intention: examining the mediating role of job satisfaction and affective commitment. Int J Manpow 24:284–298. doi:10.1108/01437720310479741

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Choi J, Chen C (2007) The relationships of distributive justice and compensation system fairness to employee attitudes in international joint ventures. J Organ Behav 28:687–703. doi:10.1002/job.438

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chun Y, Wing TA, Tang CS (2001) Burnout and duration of service among Chinese voluntary workers. Asian J Soc Psychol 4:103–111. doi:10.1111/j.1467-839X.2001.00079.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark AE, Frijters P, Shields MA (2008) Relative income, happiness and utility: an explanation for the Easterlin paradox and other puzzles. J Econ Lit 46:95–144. doi:10.1257/jel.46.1.95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coff RW (1997) Human assets and management dilemmas: coping with hazards on the road to resource-based theory. Acad Manag Rev 22:374–402. doi:10.2307/259327

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coyne I, Ong T (2007) Organizational citizenship behaviour and turnover intention: a cross-cultural study. Int J Hum Resour Manag 18:1085–1097

    Google Scholar 

  • D’Addio C, Eriksson T, Frijters P (2007) An analysis of the determinants of job satisfaction when individuals baseline satisfactions may differ. Appl Econ 39:2413–2423. doi:10.1080/00036840600707357

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dalessio A, Silverman W, Schuck J (1986) Paths to turnover: a re-analysis and review of existing data on the Mobley, Horner and Holingsworth’s turnover model. Hum Relat 39:245–264. doi:10.1177/001872678603900305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding CG, Lin CP (2006) Comparing the effects of determinants of turnover intentions between Taiwanese and U.S. hospital employees. Hum Resour Dev Q 17:403–421. doi:10.1002/hrdq.1183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dodd-McHue D, Wright GB (1996) Men, women and attitudinal commitment: the effects of work experiences and socialization. Hum Relat 49:1065–1091. doi:10.1177/001872679604900803

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dougherty C (2006) “China starts to ship higher costs abroad”, International Herald Tribune, August 24, p 1

  • Easterlin R (1974) Does economic growth improve the human lot? Some empirical evidence. In: David R, Reder R (eds) Nations and households in economic growth: essays in honor of Moses Abramovitz. Academic Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Fang Y (2001) Turnover propensity and its causes among Singapore nurses: an empirical study. Int J Hum Resour Manag 12:859–871

    Google Scholar 

  • Farber H (1994) The analysis of inter-firm worker mobility. J Labor Econ 12:554–593. doi:10.1086/298362

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feng WXZ, Ruan D (2002) Rural migrants in Shanghai: living under the shadow of socialism. Int Migr Rev 36:520–545

    Google Scholar 

  • Fuller T (2005) China feels a labor pinch. International Herald Tribune, 20 April

  • Garnaut R, Song L (eds) (2006) The turning point in China’s economic development. Asia Pacific Press, The Australian National University, Canberra

    Google Scholar 

  • Griffeth RW, Hom PW (1988) A comparison of different conceptualizations of perceived alternatives in turnover research. J Organ Behav 9:103–111. doi:10.1002/job.4030090202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hammermesh D (2001) The changing distribution of job satisfaction. J Hum Resour 36:1–30. doi:10.2307/3069668

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hendrix WH, Robbins T, Summers TP (1999) Effects of procedural and distributive justice on factors predictive of turnover. J Soc Behav Pers 13:611–632

    Google Scholar 

  • Henneberger F, Sousa-Poza A (with assistance from J. Fischer) (2007) Job stability and job rotation in Switzerland: an empirical analysis of the motives and reasons for regulation. Paul Haupt Publishing House, Berne

  • Holmlund B (1984) Studies of labor turnover and migration in the Swedish labor market. Industrial Institute for Economic and Social Research, Stockholm

    Google Scholar 

  • Honda-Howard M, Homma M (2001) Job satisfaction of Japanese career women and its influence on turnover intention. Asian J Soc Psychol 4:23–38. doi:10.1111/1467-839X.00073

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hou D (2007) Laodongli shengyude mingong huang [Migrant shortage under surplus labor], Diyi caijing ribao, 5 June (http://finance.sina.com.cn/review/20070605/02113660192.shtml)

  • International Labor Organization (ILO) (2007) Internal labor migration in China: features and responses. International Labor Organization, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Kacmar KM, Andrews MC, van Roy DL, Steilbergand RC, Cerrone S (2006) Sure everyone one can be replaced… but at what cost? Turnover as a predictor of unit level performance. Acad Manag J 49:133–142

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelly D (2008) Reincorporating the Mingong: dilemmas of citizen status. In: Nielsen I, Smyth R (eds) Migration and social protection in China. World Scientific, Singapore

    Google Scholar 

  • Kidd M (1991) An econometric analysis of inter-firm labor mobility. Can J Econ 24:517–535. doi:10.2307/135577

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kidd M (1994) Some Canadian evidence on the quit/layoff distinction. Can J Econ 27:709–733. doi:10.2307/135792

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim T-Y, Leung K (2007) Forming and reacting to overall fairness: a cross-cultural comparison. Organ Behav Hum Decis Process 104:83–95. doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2007.01.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knight J, Gunatilaka R (2007) Great expectations? The subjective well-being of rural-urban migrants in China. Department of Economics, University of Oxford Working Paper, No. 322

  • Lee HW, Liu CH (2007) An examination of factors affecting repatriates’ turnover intentions. Int J Manpow 28:122–134. doi:10.1108/01437720710747956

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lewis WA (1954) Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour. Manch Sch 22:139–191. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9957.1954.tb00021.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang, Q. (2007) Improved conditions lure migrants back to Guangdong. China Daily, September 11, 4

  • Lind EA (2001) Fairness heuristic theory: justice judgments as pivotal cognitions in organizational relations. In: Greenberg J, Cropanzano R (eds) Advances in overall fairness. Stanford University Press, Stanford, pp 56–88

    Google Scholar 

  • Mathieu J, Zajac D (1990) A review and meta-analysis of the antecedents, correlates and consequences of organizational commitment. Psychol Bull 108:171–194. doi:10.1037/0033-2909.108.2.171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller HE (1981) Withdrawal behaviors among hospital employees. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

  • Ministry of Labor and Social Security (MOLSS) (2004) Investigatory Report on Migrant Labor Shortage. http://www.molss.gov.cn/news/2004/0908a.htm. Last accessed 20 Dec 2004

  • Oshagbemi T (1999) Overall job satisfaction: how good are single versus multiple-item measures? J Manag Psychol 14:388–403. doi:10.1108/02683949910277148

    Google Scholar 

  • Parsons DO (1991) The job search behavior of employed youth. Rev Econ Stat 73:597–604. doi:10.2307/2109398

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pollard G (1996) A comparison of measures of job satisfaction used in studies of social communicators. Gazette 57:111–119. doi:10.1177/001654929605700203

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poon JML (2004) Effects of performance appraisal politics on job satisfaction and turnover intention. Person Rev 33:322–334. doi:10.1108/00483480410528850

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qi YT (2007) Job opportunity, organizational commitment and turnover intention. China–USA Bus Rev 6:62–66

    Google Scholar 

  • Ren X (2008) Migrant workers’ wages to rise 20% in 2008 says report. Glob Insight Dly Anal 14(January)

  • Rosse JG (1988) Relations among lateness, absence and turnover: is there a progression of withdrawal? Hum Relat 41:517–531. doi:10.1177/001872678804100702

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Royalty AB (1998) Job-to-job and job-to-non-employment turnover by gender and education level. J Labor Econ 16:392–443. doi:10.1086/209894

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shao S, Nielsen I, Nyland C, Smyth R, Zhang M, Zhu CJ (2007) Migrants as Homo Economicus: explaining the emerging phenomenon of a shortage of migrant labor in China’s coastal provinces. China Inf 21:7–41. doi:10.1177/0920203X07075079

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shapiro D, Sandell S (1985) Age discrimination in wages and displaced older men. South Econ J 52:90–102. doi:10.2307/1058907

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shaw JD, Duffy MK, Johnson JL, Lockhart DE (2005) Turnover, social capital loss and performance. Acad Manag J 48:594–606

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sousa-Poza A, Henneberger F (2004) Analyzing job mobility and job turnover intentions: an international comparative study. J Econ Issues 38:113–137

    Google Scholar 

  • Stewart S, Bing M, Gruys M, Helford M (2007) Men, women and perceptions of work environments, organizational commitment and turnover intentions. J Bus Public Aff 1:21. On-line journal

    Google Scholar 

  • Stock J, Watson M (2002a) Macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes. J Bus Econ Stat 20:147–163. doi:10.1198/073500102317351921

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stock J, Watson M (2002b) Forecasting using principal components from a large number of predictors. J Am Stat Assoc 97:1167–1179. doi:10.1198/016214502388618960

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Veum JR (1997) Training and job mobility among young workers in the United States. J Popul Econ 10:219–233. doi:10.1007/s001480050039

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang D, Cai F, Gao W (2007) Globalisation and the shortage of rural workers: a macroeconomic perspective. In: Nielsen I, Smyth R, Vicziany M (eds) Globalization and labor mobility in China. Monash University Press, Melbourne

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang FL (2007) Brewing tensions while maintaining stabilities: the dual role of the hukou system in contemporary China. In: Yang DL (ed) Discontented miracle: growth, conflict and institutional adaptation in China. New Scientific, Hackensack, pp 49–87

    Google Scholar 

  • Wanous JP, Reichers AE, Hudy MJ (1997) Overall job satisfaction: how good are single item indicators? J Appl Psychol 82:247–252. doi:10.1037/0021-9010.82.2.247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wen T (2007) Chengxiang eryuan jiegou de changqixing [Long-term nature of the urban-rural duality]. In: Ping H (ed) Xiangtu Zhongguo yu wenhua zijue [Earthbound China and Cultural Awareness]. Sanlian chubanshe, Beijing, pp 135–140

    Google Scholar 

  • Wong C-S, Wong Y-T, Chun H, Law K (2001) The significant role of Chinese employees’ organizational commitment: implications for managing employees in Chinese societies. J World Bus 36:326–340. doi:10.1016/S1090-9516(01)00058-X

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wong L (1994) China’s urban migrants: the public policy challenge. Pac Aff 67:335–350. doi:10.2307/2760415

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wong Y-T, Ngo H-Y, Wong C-S (2002) Affective organizational commitment of workers in Chinese joint ventures. J Manag Psychol 17:580–598. doi:10.1108/02683940210444049

    Google Scholar 

  • World Bank (2007) Quarterly update: September 2007. World Bank, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • Yadori Y, Kato T (2007) Average employee tenure, voluntary turnover ratio and labor productivity: evidence from Japanese firms. Int J Hum Resour Manag 18:1841–1857

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank an anonymous referee for helpful suggestions on an earlier version of this article. The affiliation of the third author is not the firm considered in this article.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, Monash University, 900 Dandenong Road, Caulfield East, VIC, 3145, Australia

    Russell Smyth

  2. Department of Management, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia

    Qingguo Zhai

  3. School of Business and Economics, Liaoning Shihua University, Fushun, Peoples’ Republic of China

    Qingguo Zhai

  4. Training Center—Human Resources Division, Lei Shing Hong Machinery (Kunshun) Co., Ltd, Kunshun, Peoples’ Republic of China

    Xiaoxu Li

Authors
  1. Russell Smyth
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Qingguo Zhai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Xiaoxu Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Russell Smyth.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Smyth, R., Zhai, Q. & Li, X. Determinants of turnover intentions among Chinese off farm migrants. Econ Change Restruct 42, 189–209 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-008-9067-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-008-9067-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation