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Physical and Economic Consequences of Sea-Level Rise: A Coupled GIS and CGE Analysis Under Uncertainties

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Abstract

This paper develops a modelling framework that links GEMINI-E3, a multi-regional, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model with a cost-benefit analysis approach at local level using geographical information system tools to assess the physical and economic consequences of sea-level rise (SLR) in the twenty first century. A set of future scenarios is developed spanning the uncertainties related to global warming, the parameters of semi-empirical SLR estimates, and coastal developments (cropland, urban areas and population). The importance of incorporating uncertainties regarding coastal development is highlighted. The simulation results suggest that the potential development of future coastal areas is a greater source of uncertainty than the parameters of SLR itself in terms of the economic consequences of SLR. At global level, the economic impact of SLR could be significant when loss of productive land along with loss of capital and forced displacement of populations are considered. Furthermore, highly urbanised and densely populated coastal areas of South East Asia, Australia and New Zealand are likely to suffer significantly if no protective measures are taken. Hence, it is suggested that coastal areas needs to be protected to ameliorate the overall welfare cost across various regions.

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Notes

  1. Coastal segments are independent from each other and vary in length, hence the larger the length of coastal segment, the greater the cost of protection.

  2. All information about the model can be found at http://gemini-e3.epfl.ch, including its complete description.

  3. Note that the BAU concentration profile is computed by the climate module of GEMINI-E3 whose carbon cycle model differs from the one used for RCPs. Thus, even if BAU and RCP emissions are close, the BAU concentration profile differs from the RCP6.

  4. For more details refer to http://eros.usgs.gov/#/Find_Data/Products_and_Data_Available/gtopo30.

  5. For more details refer to http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome.

  6. Like other general equilibrium models, GEMINI-E3 assesses the welfare cost of scenarios through the measurement of the households surplus. We give the welfare change in absolute value (i.e. US $) but also in relative term by dividing it by the household consumption. To compare our results with those of other published studies that use other economic indicators, it should be noted that in these scenarios the welfare change divided by household consumption is close to the percentage change of household consumption, the relative prices being not significantly affected by the sea-level rise.

  7. Refer to http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.html.

  8. Note that in this report the coastal areas were defined as areas between 50 m below mean sea level and 50 m above the high tide level or extending landward to a distance of 100 km from shore, including coral reefs, intertidal zones, estuaries, coastal aquaculture, and seagrass communities. While this definition will not be appropriate for all regions, it suffices to calculate an uncertainty range for global average elasticities used in this study.

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Acknowledgments

The research leading to these results has received funding from the EU Seventh Framework Programme (ERMITAGE FP7/2007-2013) under Grant Agreement no265170. The third author is also funded by the Qatar National Research Fund under Grant Agreement no6-1035-5-126. We would like to thank Stefan Rahmstorf and Richard S. J. Tol for their suggestions. We would also like to thank Florent Baume for his assistance in GIS analysis. Three anonymous reviewers are also gratefully thanked for their valuable comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics, Biblioteksgränd 6, 90187, Umeå, Sweden

    Santosh R. Joshi

  2. Department of Economics, Umeå School of Business and Economics, Umeå University, Biblioteksgränd 6, 90187, Umeå, Sweden

    Santosh R. Joshi

  3. Laboratory of Environmental and Urban Economics (LEURE), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), EPFL ENAC INTER REME, BP 2140, Station 16, 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland

    Marc Vielle & Frédéric Babonneau

  4. ORDECSYS SARL, Place de l’Étrier, 4, 1224, Chêne-Bougeries, Switzerland

    Frédéric Babonneau

  5. Environment, Earth and Ecosystems, Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UK

    Neil R. Edwards & Philip B. Holden

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  1. Santosh R. Joshi
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  2. Marc Vielle
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Correspondence to Santosh R. Joshi.

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Joshi, S.R., Vielle, M., Babonneau, F. et al. Physical and Economic Consequences of Sea-Level Rise: A Coupled GIS and CGE Analysis Under Uncertainties. Environ Resource Econ 65, 813–839 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-015-9927-8

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