Abstract
Some scholars argue that trade liberalization results in the ‘outsourcing’ of pollution to pollution havens, and this may explain the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in industrialized countries. Others claim that trade liberalization effectively lessens pollution by allowing a more efficient use of resources and the diffusion of clean technologies. In part because these theories generate similar predictions for industrialized countries, empirical studies have not provided conclusive evidence for either argument. To identify the role of trade, I draw on the insights of the diffusion literature and estimate a spatial regression model where trade operates as the mechanism through which pollution shifts from country to country. Using the case of per-capita carbon dioxide \((\hbox {CO}_2)\) emissions, I find that once spatial correlation is accounted for, the EKC disappears. The effect is even stronger when looking at trade from developing countries only, providing support for the pollution haven hypothesis. I also show that the \(\hbox {CO}_2\) trajectory of developing countries goes above the one previously followed by industrialized countries. This suggests that developing countries carry on an additional carbon burden above the one that would be obtained in the absence of trade. These findings contribute to the literature on the non-economic effects of trade and the constraints of domestic policies when the costs of trade are low.
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Notes
Data from Hoekman and Kostecki (2001) and the WTO [(Trade growth to ease in 2011 but despite 2010 record surge, crisis hangover persists, http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres11_e/pr628_e.htm#table3 (accessed on August 10, 2012)].
Trade is also a direct source of pollution through the transportation of goods (Krautzberger and Wetzel 2012), an aspect which this paper does not consider.
“Barroso trade threat on climate” BBC News January 22, 2008 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7201835.stm (accessed on August 10, 2011).
“Nafta, Meet the Environment” New York Times July 12, 1993.
I thank an anonymous reviewer for this suggestion.
A more detailed presentation of this test is offered in Section A3 in the Appendix.
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Acknowledgments
For comments and suggestions, I wish to thank Neal Beck, Thomas Bernauer, Sarah Castleman, Kemi Fuentes-George, S.P. Harish, Jude Hays, Jennifer Hill, James Hollyer, Franziska Keller, Chris Marcoux, Jonathan Nagler, Shanker Satyanath, Hannah Simpson, Johannes Urpelainen, as well as seminar participants at the 2011 IPES conference, the 2012 MPSA conference, the University of Pittsburgh, and at ETHZ/University of Zürich. I am also grateful for comments from two anonymous reviewers. All errors are my own.
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Aklin, M. Re-exploring the Trade and Environment Nexus Through the Diffusion of Pollution. Environ Resource Econ 64, 663–682 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-015-9893-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-015-9893-1