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Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Low-Income Countries: Household Level Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia

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Abstract

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture in a typical developing country. The economic implications of climate change are estimated by using both a farm productivity and a Ricardian framework. Data are drawn from about 1,000 farms producing cereal crops in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The thin plate spline method of spatial interpolation was used to predict household specific rainfall and temperature values using meteorological station data collected for 30 years across the regions. We found that climate change adaptation has a significant impact on both farm productivity and farm net revenues. We complement the analysis by providing an estimation of the determinants of adaptation. Extension services (both formal and farmer to farmer), as well as access to credit and information on future climate changes are key drivers of adaptation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. London School of Economics, London, UK

    Salvatore Di Falco

  2. American University, Washington, DC, USA

    Mahmud Yesuf

  3. Gothenburg University, Gothenburg, Sweden

    Gunnar Kohlin

  4. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC, USA

    Claudia Ringler

Authors
  1. Salvatore Di Falco
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  2. Mahmud Yesuf
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  3. Gunnar Kohlin
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  4. Claudia Ringler
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Correspondence to Salvatore Di Falco.

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Di Falco, S., Yesuf, M., Kohlin, G. et al. Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Low-Income Countries: Household Level Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Environ Resource Econ 52, 457–478 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-011-9538-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-011-9538-y

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