Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The impact of population on CO2 emissions: evidence from European countries

  • Published:
Environmental and Resource Economics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of population growth on CO2 emissions in European Union countries. Traditionally, researchers have assumed a unitary elasticity of emissions with respect to population growth. In this study population is treated as a predictor in the model, instead of being included as part of the dependent variable (per capita emissions), thus relaxing the above-mentioned assumption of unitary elasticity. We also contribute to the existing literature by taking into account the presence of heterogeneity in the sample and considering a dynamic specification. The sample covers the period 1975–1999 for the current European Union members. Our results show that the impact of population growth on emissions is more than proportional for recent accession countries whereas for old EU members, the elasticity is lower than unity and non significant when the properties of the time series and the dynamics are correctly specified. The different impact of population change on CO2 emissions for the current EU members should therefore be taken into account in future discussions of climate change policies within the EU.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Agras J and Chapman D (1999). A dynamic approach to the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Ecol Econ 28: 267–277

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baiocchi G, di Falco S (2001) Investigating the shape of the EKC: a nonparametric approach. FEEM Working Paper 66.01

  • Bengochea-Morancho A, Higón-Tamarit F and Martínez-Zarzoso I (2001). Economic growth and CO2 emissions in the European Union. Environ Resour Econ 19(2): 165–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Borghesi S and Vercelli A (2003). Sustainable globalisation. Ecol Econ 44: 77–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bruvoll A and Medin H (2003). Factors behind the environmental Kuznets curve : a decomposition of the changes in air pollution. Environ Resour Econ 24(1): 27–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CDIAC (1997) “A compendium of data on global change” Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, U.S.A.

  • Cole MA, Rayner AJ and Bates JM (1997). The environmental Kuznets curve: an empirical analysis. Environ Dev Econ 2(4): 401–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cole MA and Neumayer E (2004). Examining the impact of demographic factors on air pollution. Popul Dev Rev 26(1): 5–21

    Google Scholar 

  • Cramer CJ (2002). Population growth and local air pollution: methods, models and results. In: Lutz, W, Prkawetz, A and Sanderson, WC (eds) Population and environment. A supplement to vol 28, 2002, Population and Development Review, pp 22–52. Population Council, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Cramer CJ (1998). Population growth and air quality in California. Demography 35(1): 45–56

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cramer JC and Cheney RP (2000). Lost in the ozone: population growth and ozone in California. Popul Environ 21(3): 315–337

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daily GC and Ehrlich PR (1992). Population, sustainability and earth’s carrying capacity. Biosciences 42: 761–771

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dietz T and Rosa EA (1997). Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 94: 175–179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dijkgraaf E, Vollebergh HRJ (2001) A note on testing for environmental Kuznets curves with panel data. FEEM Working Paper 63.2001

  • Ehrlich PR and Holdren JP (1971). Impact of population growth. Science 171: 1212–1217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Galeotti M, Lanza A (1999) Richer and Cleaner? A study on carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries. FEEM Working Paper 87.99

  • Galli R (1998). The relationship between energy intensity and income levels: Forecasting log-term energy demand in Asian emerging countries. Energy J 19(4): 85–105

    Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton C and Turton H (2002). Determinants of Emissions Growth in OECD countries. Energy Policy 30: 63–71

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heerink N, Mulatu A and Bulte E (2001). Income inequality ant the environment: aggregation bias in environmental Kuznets curves. Ecol Econ 38: 359–367

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holtz-Eakin D and Selden TM (1995). Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth. J Public Econ 57: 85–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Im KS, Pesaran MH and Shin Y (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. J Econom 115: 53–74

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kraft J and Kraft A (1978). On the relationship between energy and GNP. J Energy Dev 3: 401–403

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee C-C (2005). Energy consumption and GDP in developing countries: a cointegrated panel analysis. Energy Econ 27(3): 415–427

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levin A, Lin CF and Chu SJ (2002). Unit root test in panel data: asymptotic and finite sample properties. J Econom 108(1): 1–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lise W (2005) Decomposition of CO2 emissions over 1980–2003 in Turkey. FEEM Working Paper No. 24.05

  • MacKellar L, Lutz W, Prinz C and Goujon A (1995). Population, households and CO2 emissions. Popul Dev Rev 21(4): 849–865

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marland G (1989) Fossil fuels CO2 emissions: three countries account for 50% in 1986. CDIAC Communications. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, USA

  • Marland G, Boden TA, Andres RJ (1994) Global, regional, and national fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, USA

  • Martínez-Zarzoso I and Bengochea-Morancho A (2004). Testing for environmental Kuznets curves for CO2: evidence from pooled mean group estimates. Econ Lett 82(1): 121–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moomaw WR and Unruh GC (1997). Are environmental Kuznets curves misleading us? The case of CO2 emissions. Environ Dev Econ 2: 451–463

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Panayotou T, Peterson A, Sachs J (2000) Is the Environmental Kuznets Curve driven by structural change? What extended time series may imply for developing countries. CAER II Discussion Paper 80

  • Perman R and Stern DI (2003). Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests that the environmental Kuznets curve does not exists. Aust J Agric Resour Econ 47: 325–347

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roberts JT and Grimes PE (1997). Carbon intensity and economic development 1962–91: a brief exploration of the environmental Kuznets curve. World Dev 25(2): 191–198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roca J, Padilla E, Farré M and Galletto V (2001). Economic growth and atmospheric pollution in Spain: discussing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Ecol Econ 39: 85–99

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmalensee R, Stoker TM and Judson RA (1998). World carbon dioxide emissions:1950–2050. Rev Econ Stat 80(1): 15–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sengupta R (1996). CO2 emission-income relationship: Policy approach for climate control. Pacific Asian J Energy 7: 207–229

    Google Scholar 

  • Shafik N, Bandyopadhyay S (1992) Economic growth and environmental quality: time series an cross- country evidence. Background Paper for the World Development Report 1992, Working Paper No 904, Washington DC, The World Bank

  • Shi A (2003). The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975–1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data. Ecol Econ 44: 29–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stern DI (1998). Progress on the environmental Kuznets curve?. Environ Dev Econ 3: 173–196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stern DI (2002). Explaining changes in global sulphur emissions: An econometric decomposition approach. Ecol Econ 42: 201–220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stern DI (2004). The rise and fall of the environmental Kuznets curve. World Dev 32(8): 1419–1439

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suri V and Chapman D (1998). Economic growth, trade and energy: implications for the environmental Kuznets Curve. Ecol Econ 25: 195–208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tucker M (1995). Carbon dioxide emissions and global GDP. Ecol Econ 15: 215–223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNEP (1999) Climate change information kit. UNEP, Geneva

  • World Bank (1992) World Development Indicators 2001 CD-Rom, Washington DC

  • World Bank (2001) World Development Indicators 2001 CD-Rom, Washington DC

  • York R, Rosa EA and Dietz T (2003). STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: Analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts. Ecol Econ 46(3): 351–365

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • WRI (1997) Annual carbon dioxide inventory report, http://www.wri.org/

  • Yu ESH and Choi J-Y (1985). The causal relationship between energy and GNP in Taiwan. Energy Econ 22: 309–317

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu ESH and Hwang B (1984). The relationship between energy and GNP: An international comparison. J Energy Dev 10: 249–272

    Google Scholar 

  • Zaba B, Clarke JI (1994) Introduction: current directions in population-environment research. In: Zaba B, Clarke JI (eds) Environment and population change. Derouaux Ordina Editions, Liège

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departament d’Economia, Universitat Jaume I, Castelló, 12071, Spain

    Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Rafael Morales-Lage

  2. Departament d’Economa and Instituto de Economía Internacional, Universitat Jaume I, Castelló, 12071, Spain

    Aurelia Bengochea-Morancho

Authors
  1. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Aurelia Bengochea-Morancho
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Rafael Morales-Lage
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Bengochea-Morancho, A. & Morales-Lage, R. The impact of population on CO2 emissions: evidence from European countries. Environ Resource Econ 38, 497–512 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-007-9096-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-007-9096-5

Keywords

JEL Classification

Search

Navigation