Abstract
Globally, agriculture is recognized as a highly vulnerable sector to climate change and risks from climatic aberrations pose an imminent danger to the food security and sustainability of livelihoods. To bring robustness in climate adaptation planning, evaluation of resilience across homogenous regions is essential for developing and scaling suitable location-need-context specific interventions and policies that build the resilience of the agricultural system. In this paper, we present an analysis and discussion of multi-scalar and multi-indicator assessment, by profiling resilience across agro-climatic zones of India, based on the development of a Climate-Resilient Agriculture Index embracing environmental, technological, socio-economic, and institutional and infrastructural dimension. A total of 26 indicators, spread across these four dimensions, were employed to purport inter- and intra-agro-climatic zone differentials in the level of resilience. Among the zones, it was found that West Coast Plains & Ghats and Tans-Gangetic Plains had the highest degree of resilience to manage climate risks. Most of the districts lying within Eastern Himalayan Region, Middle Gangetic Plains, Eastern Plateau & Hills, and Western Dry Region had a lower degree of resilience. The study places greater emphasis on deciphering region-specific drivers and barriers to resilience at a further disaggregated scale for improving rural well-beings. It is construed that devising action plans emphasizing awareness, preservation of natural resources, diversification, building physical infrastructure, strengthening of grass-root institutions, and mainstreaming climate adaptation in the developmental policy is crucial for climate-resilient pathways.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Data will be available on request.
Change history
12 April 2021
A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03067-3
Notes
In our estimation, the minimum and maximum values of an indicator are not pre-selected rather they are data driven values.
References
Adger WN (2000) Social and ecological resilience: are they related? Prog Hum Geogr 24(3):347–364
Agrawal S, Lemos MC (2015) Adaptive development. Nat Clim Chang 5:185–187
Banerjee RR (2014) Farmers’ perception of climate change, impact and adaptation strategies: a case study of four villages in the semi-arid regions of India. Nat Hazards 75(3):2829–2845
Barua A et al (2014) Climate change and poverty: building resilience of rural mountain communities in South Sikkim, Eastern Himalaya, India. Reg Environ Chang 14(1):267–280
Becker W et al (2017) Weights and importance in composite indicators: closing the gap. Ecol Indic 80:12–22
Birthal PS et al (2015) Is Indian agriculture becoming resilient to droughts? Evidence from rice production systems. Food Policy 56:1–12
Birthal PS, Hazrana J (2019) Crop diversification and resilience of agriculture to climatic shocks: evidence from India. Agric Syst 173:345–354
Booysen F (2002) An overview and evaluation of composite indices of development. Soc Indic Res 59:115–151
Brooks N, Adger WN (2004) Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity. In: Lim B (ed) Adaptation policy frameworks for climate change: developing strategies, policies and measures. United Nations Development Programme, New York, pp 165–181
Ebert U, Welsch H (2004) Meaningful environmental indices: a social choice approach. J Environ Econ Manag 47(2):270–283
Engle NL et al (2013) Towards a resilience indicator framework for making climate-change adaptation decisions. Mitig Adapt Strat Gl Chang 19(8):1295–1312
ESRI (2019) ArcGIS desktop: release 10.7.1. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands
FAO (2017) The future of food and agriculture–trends and challenges. Rome
Folke C (2006) Resilience: the emergence of a perspective for social ecological systems analyses. Glob Environ Chang 16(3):253–267
Freudenberg M (2003) Composite indicators of country performance: a critical assessment. OECD, Paris
Gan X et al (2017) When to use what: methods for weighting and aggregating sustainability indicators. Ecol Indic 81:491–502
GOI (1989) Agro-climatic regional planning: an overview. Planning Commission, Government of India, New Delhi
Greco S et al (2019) On the methodological framework of composite indices: a review of the issues of weighting, aggregation, and robustness. Soc Indic Res 141(1):61–94
Greyling T, Tregenna F (2017) Construction and analysis of a composite quality of life index for a region of South Africa. Soc Indic Res 131(3):887–930
Gygli S et al (2019) The KOF globalisation index–revisited. Rev Int Organ 14(3):543–574
Hahn MB, Riederer AM, Foster SO (2009) The livelihood vulnerability index: a pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change—a case study in Mozambique. Glob Environ Chang 19(1):74–88
IPCC (2012) Glossary of terms. In: Field CB et al (eds) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 555–564
Jain SK, Kumar V (2012) Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Curr Sci 102(1):37–49
Jodha NS, Singh NP, Bantilan MCS (2012) Enhancing farmers’ adaptation to climate change in arid and semi-arid agriculture of India: evidences from indigenous practices: developing international public goods from development-oriented projects. Working Paper Series no. 32. International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, Hyderabad
Kelley JG, Simmons BA (2015) Politics by number: indicators as social pressure in international relations. Am J Polit Sci 59(1):55–70
Kothawale DR, Rajeevan M (2017) Monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall time series for all-India, homogeneous regions and meteorological subdivisions: 1871–2016. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
Kothawale DR, Munot AA, Kumar KK (2010) Surface air temperature variability over India during 1901–2007, and its association with ENSO. Clim Res 42(2):89–104
Krishnan R, Sanjay J (2017) Climate change over India: an interim report. ESSO-Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, Pune
Kumar S et al (2016) Application of indicators for identifying climate change vulnerable areas in semi-arid regions of India. Ecol Indic 70:507–517
Mandal C et al (2014) Revisiting agro-ecological sub-regions of India – a case study of two major food production zones. Curr Sci 107(9):1519–1536
Mishra A et al (2013) Spatial variability of climate change impacts on yield of rice and wheat in the Indian Ganga Basin. Sci Total Environ 468:132–138
Mondal A, Khare D, Kundu S (2015) Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and temperature trend of India. Theor Appl Climatol 122:143–158
Motha RP, Murthy VRK (2007) Agrometeorological services to cope with risks and uncertainties. In: Sivakumar VK, Motha RP (eds) Managing weather and climate risks in agriculture. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, pp 435–462
Nardo M et al (2005) Handbook on constructing composite indicators. OECD Publishing, Paris
Nicoletti G, Scarpetta S, Boylaud O (2000) Summary indicators of product and market regulation with an extension to employment protection legislation. OECD, Economics department working papers No. 226. OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/215182844604
OECD (2008) Handbook on constructing composite indicators: methodology and user guide. OECD Publishing, Paris
Palanisami K et al (2011) Spread and economics of micro-irrigation in India: evidence from nine states. Econ Polit Wkly 65:81–86
Panda A (2016) Exploring climate change perceptions, rainfall trends and perceived barriers to adaptation in a drought affected region in India. Nat Hazards 84(2):777–796
Pandey R et al (2018) Climate change adaptation in the western-Himalayas: household level perspectives on impacts and barriers. Ecol Indic 84:27–37
Patra NK, Babu SC (2017) Mapping Indian agricultural emissions: lessons for food system transformation and policy support for climate-smart agriculture. IFPRI discussion paper 01660. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), New Delhi
Pollesch NL, Dale VH (2016) Normalization in sustainability assessment: methods and implications. Ecol Econ 130:195–208
Rao BB et al (2014) Rising minimum temperature trends over India in recent decades: implications for agricultural production. Glob Planet Chang 117:1–8
Rao CR et al (2016) A district level assessment of vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change. Curr Sci 25:1939–1946
Rao CS et al (2017) Farm ponds for climate-resilient rainfed agriculture. Curr Sci 112(3):471–477
Rao CS et al (2019) Agro-ecosystem based sustainability indicators for climate resilient agriculture in India: a conceptual framework. Ecol Indic 105:621–633
Reddy J (2002) Dryland agriculture, BS publication 4–4-309. Giriraj lane Sultan Bazar Hyderabad, India
Roxy MK et al (2015) Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient. Nat Commun 6(7423):1–10
Saltelli A (2007) Composite indicators between analysis and advocacy. Soc Indic Res 81(1):65–77
Singh P (2007) Agro-climatic zonal planning including agriculture development in North-eastern India (vol I-Main report, XI five-year plan (2007–2012)). Planning Commission, Government of India, New Delhi
Singh RK et al (2012) An overview of sustainability assessment methodologies. Ecol Indic 15(1):281–299
Singh P et al (2014b) Potential benefits of drought and heat tolerance in groundnut for adaptation to climate change in India and West Africa. Mitig Adapt Strat Gl Chang 19:509–529
Singh P et al (2014c) Quantifying potential benefits of drought and heat tolerance in rainy season sorghum for adapting to climate change. Agric For Meteorol 185:37–48
Singh RK, Singh DN (1993) An agro-climatic approach to agricultural development in India. In: de Vries P et al (eds) Systems approaches for agricultural development. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 111–125
Singh NP, Bantilan C, Byjesh K (2014a) Vulnerability and policy relevance to drought in the semi-arid tropics of Asia - a retrospective analysis. Weather Clim Extre 3:54–61
Singh C, Rahman A, Srinivas A, Bazaz A (2018a) Risks and responses in rural India: implications for local climate change adaptation action. Clim Risk Manag 21:52–68
Singh NP, Anand B, Khan MA (2018b) Micro-level perception to climate change and adaptation issues: a prelude to mainstreaming climate adaptation into developmental landscape in India. Nat Hazards 92(3):1287–1304
Singh NP, Anand B, Singh S, Khan MA (2019) Mainstreaming climate adaptation in Indian rural developmental agenda: a micro-macro convergence. Clim Risk Manag 24:30–41
Smit B, Pilifosova O (2001) Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity. In: McCarthy JJ et al (eds) Climate change 2001: impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC Working Group II. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 877–912
Smit B, Wandel J (2006) Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Glob Environ Chang 16(3):282–292
Srivastava AK, Kothawale DR, Rajeevan MN (2016) Variability and long-term changes in surface air temperatures over the Indian subcontinent. In: Rajeevan MN, Nayak S (eds) Observed climate variability and change over the Indian region. Springer, Singapore, pp 17–35
UNDP (1990) Human development report 1990. Oxford University Press, New York
Acknowledgements
The work presented in this article was undertaken as a part of the mega-network program of the National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA), Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) New Delhi, India.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
This is to certify that the reported work in the paper entitled ‘Synergies and Trade-offs for Climate Resilient Agriculture in India: An Agro-Climatic Zone Assessment’ submitted for publication is an original one and has not been submitted for publication elsewhere. I/we further certify that proper citations to the previously reported work have been given and no data/tables/figure have been quoted verbatim from other publications without given due acknowledgment and without the permission of the author(s).
Code availability
Not applicable
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
The original online version of this article was revised: technical numbers like (1) and (2) were represented as references in the original publication. This has been corrected.
Appendix
Appendix
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Singh, N.P., Anand, B., Singh, S. et al. Synergies and trade-offs for climate-resilient agriculture in India: an agro-climatic zone assessment. Climatic Change 164, 11 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-02969-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-02969-6