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Traditional livelihoods under a changing climate: herder perceptions of climate change and its consequences in South Gobi, Mongolia

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Abstract

Climate change is affecting virtually all environments in the world today. The Central Asian mountains, where livestock herding is the main source of livelihood, are among the environments predicted to be most affected. In this paper, we use meteorological records and herder perceptions to improve the understanding of climate change and examine how different climate change scenarios will affect herder livelihoods in the Tost-Tosonbumba Nature Reserve of southern Mongolia. Herders with generation-long herding experience perceived that there had been changes in all eight meteorological variables examined in this study between 1995 and 2015, including winter temperature, summer temperature, summer precipitation, frequency of intense rain, frequency of drizzle rain, wind speed, number of windy days, and snow cover. Herder perceptions and meteorological data showed the same patterns for 3 of the 8 variables at α = 0.05 and for 5 of the 8 variables at α = 0.10. Herders also predicted that all 9 climate change scenarios presented would have negative impacts on their practices and livelihoods. Our work suggests that herder perceptions of climate change can provide important information on changes in the climate and insights on factors that put their livelihoods at risk.

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Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge the Tost herders for their time, kindness, and cooperation in this study.

Funding

This study is supported by the Wildlife Conservation Network “Sydney Byers Scholarship” and Partnership Funding by Foundation Segre managed by Whitley Fund for Nature.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Snow Leopard Conservation Foundation, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

    Tserennadmid Nadia Mijiddorj

  2. Ecology Group, Department of Biology, School of Arts and Sciences, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, 14201, Mongolia

    Tserennadmid Nadia Mijiddorj & Bazartseren Boldgiv

  3. Snow Leopard Trust, 4649 Sunnyside Avenue North, Seattle, WA, USA

    Justine Shanti Alexander, Gustaf Samelius & Charudutt Mishra

Authors
  1. Tserennadmid Nadia Mijiddorj
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  2. Justine Shanti Alexander
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  3. Gustaf Samelius
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  5. Bazartseren Boldgiv
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Correspondence to Tserennadmid Nadia Mijiddorj.

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Mijiddorj, T.N., Alexander, J.S., Samelius, G. et al. Traditional livelihoods under a changing climate: herder perceptions of climate change and its consequences in South Gobi, Mongolia. Climatic Change 162, 1065–1079 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02851-x

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