Abstract
During austral summers (DJF) 1934/35, 2017/18 and 2018/19, the New Zealand (NZ) region (approximately 4 million km2) experienced the most intense coupled ocean-atmosphere heatwaves on record. Average air temperature anomalies over land were + 1.7 to 2.1 °C while sea surface temperatures (SST) were 1.2 to 1.9 °C above average. All three heatwaves exhibited maximum SST anomalies west of the South Island of NZ. Atmospheric circulation anomalies showed a pattern of blocking centred over the Tasman Sea extending south-east of NZ, accompanied by strongly positive Southern Annular Mode conditions, and reduced trough activity over NZ. Rapid melt of seasonal snow occurred in all three cases. For the two most recent events, combined ice loss in the Southern Alps was estimated at 8.9 km3 (22% of the 2017 volume). Sauvignon blanc and Pinot noir wine grapes had above average berry number and bunch mass in 2018 but were below average in 2019. Summerfruit harvest (cherries and apricots) was 14 and 2 days ahead of normal in 2017/18 and 2018/19 respectively. Spring wheat simulations suggested earlier flowering and lower grain yields compared to average, and below-average yield and tuber quality in potatoes crops occurred. Major species disruption occurred in marine ecosystems. Hindcasts indicate that the heatwaves were either atmospherically driven or arose from combinations of atmospheric surface warming and oceanic heat advection.
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Acknowledgements
The contribution of Dr Elizabeth (Betty) Batham is recognized in establishing the longterm PML temperature record. Thanks to Dr Doug Mackie for providing the daily PML SST record used here. We also thank our many colleagues and volunteers who have maintained and contributed to the New Zealand marine and climate data sets utilised in this study. Updates of the Tasman Glacier end of summer snow line data to 1976 were provided by the late Dr Trevor Chinn. Other files from Trev were used to update the proglacial lake and downwasting of volume for the 12 large glaciers. Pascal Sirguey provided satellite imagery from the Sentinel passes for the Brewster Glacier. Jian Liu and Rob Zyskowski retrieved and prepared daily weather data to run the APSIM model. The Argo data were collected and made freely available by the International Argo Program and the national programs that contribute to it (http://www.argo.ucsd.edu , http://argo.jcommops.org ). The Argo Program is part of the Global Ocean Observing System.The sub-surface temperature and SST data was collected as part of the MBIE funded Coastal Acidification: Rate, Impacts and Management (CARIM) project, provided by Kim Currie. This project obtained support through the Deep South National Science Challenge. MST was funded by the Brian Mason Trust (Impact of an unprecedented marine heatwave). PMS was funded by MBIE contract CAWX1801.
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Our good friend and colleague Dr Brett Mullan died during the final editing of this manuscript. He has made significant contributions and authored seminal papers in meteorology. These include the analysis of Southern Hemisphere climate and circulation variability over interannual (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) to interdecadal (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) timescales. The development of relationships with climate variability has been a basis for seasonal climate prediction for New Zealand commencing in the 1990s. Brett carried out pivotal research into climate change and modelling, emphasising on Southern Hemisphere and New Zealand regional effects. He has been a pioneer in producing climate change scenarios for New Zealand. He will be missed.
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Salinger, M.J., Diamond, H.J., Behrens, E. et al. Unparalleled coupled ocean-atmosphere summer heatwaves in the New Zealand region: drivers, mechanisms and impacts. Climatic Change 162, 485–506 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02730-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02730-5