Abstract
Global sea levels have risen at a rate of 1.7 mm/year over the last century and are projected to rise an additional 0.2 to 2.0 m by 2100 with some regions experiencing higher rise in relative sea level due to localized processes. As sea levels rise, low-lying, narrow barrier islands are threatened by episodic flooding and wave impact and are particularly vulnerable during storm events. These types of islands are ubiquitous along the U.S. East and South coasts and other coasts worldwide. In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of several adaptation strategies, including combinations of nature-based and hard structures, on developed barrier islands to hurricane forcing under future sea levels. Interpreting the results of a morphological numerical model, beach nourishment from the toe of the dune to the depth of closure (i.e., active beach only) provides only a slight increase in protection for the island from hurricane forcing as sea levels rise. Raising elevations of the existing dune or existing buried seawall effectively reduces overall volumetric erosion but, under extreme sea level rise, does not protect against bay-side flooding and severe back-barrier erosion. Raising the elevation of the entire island, particularly the back-barrier region, offered the greatest protection from severe erosion on the developed barrier island under future sea level states and hurricane forcing. Using these results, an adaptation pathway based on level of sea level rise is created to illustrate the effectiveness of an adaptive approach in managing the accelerating risk posed by sea level rise.
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Acknowledgements
This material is based upon work supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, via award number NA14OAR4170093 to Virginia Sea Grant; the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program via grant number DGE-1148903; and National Science Foundation via grant number EAR-1312813. A.R. Van Dongeren was supported by the European Community’s 7th Framework Programme through the RISC-KIT project, contract no. 603458 and Deltares Research Program on “Hydro- and Morphodynamics during Extreme Events.” The authors acknowledge Advanced Research Computing at Virginia Tech for providing computational resources and technical support that have contributed to the results reported within this paper, http://www.arc.vt.edu.
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Smallegan, S.M., Irish, J.L. & van Dongeren, A.R. Developed barrier island adaptation strategies to hurricane forcing under rising sea levels. Climatic Change 143, 173–184 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1988-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1988-y