Abstract
As climate changes, suitability zones for the cultivation of some crops may shift. In Northeast China (NEC), it is critically important for the agricultural community (e.g. farmers, advisors) to understand the potential shift in suitable cropping zones for spring maize in order to adapt to climate change. The potential climatic suitability can be defined as how actual temperature and solar radiation conditions match the requirements of crop growth under non-limited situations. Here, we used yield potential to reflect the potential climatic suitability, which is determined by the characteristics of crop, solar radiation, temperature, and photoperiod, given the assumption that water, nutrients, pests, and diseases are not limiting the crop growth. We assessed the annual yield potential of spring maize during 1961–2010 in NEC with APSIM-Maize. And then we analyzed the variations in potential climatic suitability zones and the possible effects of these variations on maize production potential. The results show that growing degree-days (GDD) during the growing season for spring maize universally increased in all the locations of this study during the period of 1981–2010 (period II) as compared to the period of 1961–1980 (period I). A total of 66 % of the locations show a decrease in accumulated sunshine duration (ASD) during the growing season during period II as compared to period I. Both coefficient of variation (CV) of GDD and CV of ASD showed an increase during period II as compared to period I. Under the background of climate change, the potential climatic suitability for spring maize was worsened during the most recent five decades: the yield potential declined and the yield stability decreased. In particular, most of the very suitable zone in Jilin and Liaoning during period I turned into suitable or moderately suitable zone during period II. Meanwhile, the total area of marginally suitable zone and no suitable zone increased by 16 % during period II as compared to period I. We detected a close correlation between the decrease in ASD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = 0.56, p < 0.01. We also found a close correlation between the increase in GDD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = −0.25, p < 0.05. Given the same crop varieties and farming management, the total production potential for spring maize in the entire NEC reduced by 4.3 % during period II as compared to period I.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adejuwon J (2005) Assessing the suitability of the EPIC crop model for use in the study of impacts of climate variability and climate change in West Africa. Singap J Trop Geogr 26:44–60
Ahamed TRN, Rao KG, Murthy JSR (2000) GIS-based fuzzy membership model for crop-land suitability analysis. Agric Syst 63:75–95
Almaraz JJ, Mabood F, Zhou X, Gregorich EG, Smith DL (2008) Climate change, weather variability and corn yield at a higher latitude locale: Southwestern Quebec. Clim Chang 88:187–197
Araya A, Keesstra SD, Stroosnijder L (2010) A new agro-climatic classification for crop suitability zoning in northern semi-arid Ethiopia. Agric For Meteorol 150:1057–1064
Ashraf S (2010) Land suitability analysis for wheat using multicriteria evalution and GIS method. Res J Biol Sci 5:601–605
Bandyopadhyay S, Jaiswal RK, Hegde VS, V. Jayaraman (2009) Assessment of land suitability potentials for agriculture using a remote sensing and GIS based approach. Int J Remote Sens 30:879–895.
Benke KK, Pelizaro C (2010) A spatial-statistical approach to the visualisation of uncertainty in land suitability analysis. J Spat Sci 55:257–272
Chen C-C, Mccarl BA, Schimmelpfennig DE (2004) Yield variability as influenced by climate: A statistical investigation. Clim Chang 66:239–261
Chen C, Lei C, Wang C, Zhang W (2011) Changes of spring maize potential productivity under the background of global warming in Northeast China. Sci Geogr Sin 31:1272–1279
Chen C, Qian C, Deng A, Zhang W (2012) Progressive and active adaptations of cropping system to climate change in Northeast China. Eur J Agron 38:94–103
Dobermann A, Ping JL, Adamchuk VI, Simbahan GC, Ferguson RB (2003) Classification of crop yield variability in irrigated production fields. Agron J 95:1105–1120
Evans LT, Fisher RA (1999) Yield potential: its definition, measurement, and significance. Crop Sci 39:1544–1551
Fischer G, Velthuizen Hv, Shah M, Nachtergaele F (2002) Global agro-ecological assessment for agriculture in the 21st century: methodology and results, Rome
Grassini P, Thorburn J, Burr C, Cassman KG (2011) High-yield irrigated maize in the Western U.S. Corn Belt: I. On-farm yield, yield potential, and impact of agronomic practices. Field Crop Res 120:142–150
He Y, Guo J (2012) Study on climatic potential productivity of maize in Northeast China based on actual growing stage. J Southwest Uni (Nat Sci Edition) 34:67–75
He Q, Zhou G (2012) The climatic suitability for maize cultivation in China. Chin Sci Bull 57:395–403
Holzkämper A, Calanca P, Fuhrer J (2013) Identifying climatic limitations to grain maize yield potentials using a suitability evaluation approach. Agric For Meteorol 168:149–159
Isik M, Devadoss S (2006) An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability. Appl Econ 38:835–844
Jia J, Guo J (2009) Studies on climatic resources change for maize over last 46 years in Northeast China. Chinese J Agrometeorology 30:302–307
Lai C, Qian H, Duan H, Song Q, Yu F, Zhang Y, Zhang J (2011) Climate suitability of wheat-rice double cropping system in huaihe watershed. Sci Agric Sin 44:2868–2875
Lane A, Jarvis A (2007) Changes in climate will modify the geography of crop suitability: agricultural biodiversity can help with adaptation. J Semi-Arid Tropical Agricultural Res 4:1–12
Li Z, Yang P, Tang H, Wu W, Chen Z, Qb Z, Zou J, Zhang L (2011) Trend analysis of typical phenophases of major crops under climate change in the three provinces of Northeast China. Sci Agric Sin 44:4180–4189
Liu H, Lin Z, Zhang M (2005) Analysis on the fluctuation of grain output in China and its causesat multi-time scale based on empirical mode decomposition method. J Nat Res 20:745–750
Liu D, Du C, Yu C (2009a) Ecological adaptability evaluation and planting division of maize in Heilongjiang province. J Maize Sci 17:160–163
Liu Z, Yang X, Wang W, Li K, Zhang X (2009b) Characteristics of agricultural climate resources in three provinces of Northeast China under global climate change. Chin J Appl Ecol 20:2199–2206
Liu Z, Yang X, Hubbard KG, Lin X (2012a) Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of Northeast China. Glob Chang Biol 18:3441–3454
Liu Z, Yang X, Wang J, Lv S, Li K, Xun X, Wang E (2012b) Adaptability of APSIM maize model in Northeast China. Acta Agronomica Sinica 38:740–746
Liu Z, Hubbard KG, Lin X, Yang X (2013a) Negative effects of climate warming on maize yield are reversed by the changing of sowing date and cultivar selection in Northeast China. Glob Chang Biol 19:3481–3492
Liu Z, Yang X, Chen F, Wang E (2013b) The effects of past climate change on the northern limits of maize planting in Northeast China. Clim Chang 117:891–902
Lobell DB, Burke MB (2010) On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change. Agric For Meteorol 150:1443–1452
Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333:616–620. doi:10.1126/science.1204531
Luo H, Chen G, Zhu B (2004) Review on suitability of agro-climate. J China Agric Res Reg Plann 25:28–32
Lv S, Yang X, Zhao J, Liu Z, Li K, Mu C, Chen X, Chen F, Mi G (2013) Effects of climate change and variety alternative on potential yield of spring maize in Northeast China. Trans Chin Soc Agric Eng 29:179–190
Ma S, Liu Y, Wang Q (2006) Dynamic in prediction and evaluation method of maize chilling damage. Chin J Appl Ecol 17:1905–1910
McMaster GS, Wilhelm WW (1997) Growing degree-days: one equation, two interpretations. Agric For Meteorol 87:291–300
Pu J, Yao X, Wang W (2011) Influence of climate change on climate suitability of wheat in Gansu. Geogr Res 30:153–160
Qu M (1990) Agro-climatic internship guide. Beijing Agricultural University Press, Beijing
Ren G, Chu Z, Zhou Y, Xu M, Wang Y, Tang G, Zhai P, Shao X, Zhang A, Chen Z, Guo J, Liu H, Zhou J, Zhao Z, Zhang L, Bai H, Liu X, Tang H (2005) Recent progresses in studies of regional temperature changes in China. Climatic Environ Res 10:701–716
Sun F, Yuan J, Lu S (2006) The change and test of climate in Northeast China over the last 100 years. Climatic Environl Res 11:101–108
Trnka M, Olesen JE, Kersebaum KC, SkjelvÅg AO, Eitzinger J, Seguin B, Peltonen-Sainio P, RÖtter R, Iglesias A, Orlandini S, DubrovkÝ M, Hlavinka P, Balek J, Eckersten H, Cloppet E, Calanca P, Gobin A, VuČetiĆ V, Nejedlik P, Kumar S, Lalic B, Mestre A, Rossi F, Kozyra J, Alexandrov V, SemerÁdovÁ D, Žalud Z (2011) Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 17:2298–2318
Venette RC, Cohen SD (2006) Potential climatic suitability for establishment of phytophthora ramorum within the contiguous United States. For Ecol Manag 231:18–26
Wang J, Li Y (1998) Analyse on high and stable yield of corn variety by high stability coefficient method. Maize Sci 6:26–28
Wang C, Huang S, Deng A, Chen C, Zhang W (2010) Correlations between climatic warming trends and corn yield changes in rain-fed farming areas of Northeast China. J Maize Sci 18:64–68
Wen Z, Zhang Y (1994) Study of a method for estimation performence of the high and stable yield of maize hybrids by high-stable yielding coefficient. Acta Agron Sin 20:508–512
Yang Z, Cai Z, Jing X, Zhang S (2007) Maize in Northeast China. China Agriculture Press, Beijing
Yao X, Pu J, Yao R, Jia H, Ma J (2011) Variation of climate suitability of maize in arid area in Gansu under the condition of climate dry-warming. Acta Geograph Sin 66:59–67
Yu S (1991) Adaptability and yield stability of crop varieties. Crops Magazine 1:36–37
Zhang J, Wang C, Yang X, Zhao Y, Liu Z, Wang J, Chen Y (2009) Impact forecast of future climate change on maize water requirement in three provinces of Northeast China. Trans Chin Soc Agric Eng 25:50–55
Zhao J, Yang X, Liu Z (2009) Influence of climate warm ing on serious low temperature and cold damage and cultivation pattern of spring maize in NortheastChina. Acta Ecol Sin 29:6544–6551
Zhao J, Yang X, Liu Z, Lv S, Wang J, Chen F (2014a) The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China X. the possible impacts of climate change on climatic suitability of spring maize in the three provinces of Northeast China. Sci Agric Sin 47:3143–3156
Zhao J, Yang X, Lv S, Liu Z, Wang J (2014b) Variability of available climate resources and disaster risks for different maturity types of spring maize in Northeast China. Reg Environ Chang 14:17–26
Zhong X, Liu L, Song C, Xu X, You S (2012) Temporal-spatial variation of spring maize climatic productivity from 1981 to 2010 in Northeastern China. Resources Sci 34:2164–2169
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 31471408) and the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China (Grant No. 2012BAD20B04).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
ESM 1
(DOCX 543 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhao, J., Yang, X., Liu, Z. et al. Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change. Climatic Change 137, 29–42 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y