Abstract
The brown planthopper Nilaparvata lugens (Stål) is a major rice insect pest in China and other Asian countries. This study assessed a potential northward shift in the overwintering boundaries and changes in the overwintering areas and voltinism of this planthopper species in China in response to global warming. Temperature data generated by 15 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from 2010 to 2099 were employed to analyze the planthopper’s overwintering boundaries and overwintering areas in conjunction with three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Planthopper voltinism from 1961 to 2050 was analyzed in scenario A2 using degree-day models with projections from the regional circulation model (RCM) Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). In both analyses, 1961–1990 served as the baseline period. Both the intermittent and constant overwintering boundaries were projected to shift northward; these shifts were more pronounced during later time periods and in scenarios A2 and A1B. The intermittent overwintering area was modeled to increase by 11, 24 and 44 %, and the constant overwintering area, by 66, 206 and 477 %, during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Planthopper voltinism will increase by <0.5, 0.5–1.0 and 1.0–1.4 generations in northern, central and southern China, respectively, in 2021–2050. Our results suggest that the brown planthopper will overwinter in a much larger region and will produce more generations under future climate warming scenarios. As a result, the planthopper will exert an even greater threat to China’s rice production in the future.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bale JS, Masters GJ, Hodkinson ID et al (2002) Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Glob Chang Biol 8:1–16
Beaumont LJ, Hughes L (2002) Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate change. Glob Chang Biol 8:954–971
Beaumont LJ, Hughes L, Pitman A (2008) Why is the choice of future climate scenarios for species distribution modelling important? Ecol Lett 11:1135–1146
Berzitis EA, Minigan JN, Hallett RH, Newman JA (2014) Climate and host plant availability impact the future distribution of the bean leaf beetle (Cerotoma trifurcata). Glob Chang Biol 20:2778–2792
Buisson L, Thuiller W, Casajus N, Lek S, Grenouillet G (2010) Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution. Glob Chang Biol 16:1145–1157
Cheng JA, Zhu ZR (2006) Analysis on the key factors causing the outbreak of brown planthopper in Yangtze Area, China in 2005. Plant Prot 32(4):1–4
Cheng X, Zhu L, He G (2013) Towards understanding of molecular interactions between rice and the brown planthopper. Mol Plant 6:621–634
Deutsch CA, Tewksbury JJ, Huey RB, Sheldon KS, Ghalambor CK, Haak DC, Martin PR (2008) Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 105:6668–6672
Ding DJ (1979) Temperature and regional distribution of the brown planthopper. Jiangsu Agric Sci 3(40–43):52
Duan JQ, Zhou GS (2011) Potential distribution of rice in China and its climate characteristics. Acta Ecol Sin 31:6659–6668
IPCC (2007) Climate change (2007): synthesis report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Jones RG, Noguer M, Hassell DC, Hudson D, Wilson SS, Jenkins GJ, Mitchell JFB (2004) Generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter
Jönsson A, Appelberg G, Harding S, Bärring L (2009) Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the activity and voltinism of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus. Glob Chang Biol 15:486–499
Long Y, Hu CX, Shi BK, Yang X, Hou ML (2012) Effects of temperature on mate-location in the brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Homoptera: Delphacidae). Environ Entomol 41:1231–1238
Lou YG, Cheng JA (2011) Basic research on the outbreak mechanism and sustainable management of rice planthoppers. Chin J Appl Entomol 42:231–238
Luedeling E, Steinmann KP, Zhang M, Brown PH, Grant J, Girvetz EH (2011) Climate change effects on walnut pests in California. Glob Chang Biol 17:228–238
Mika AM, Weiss RM, Olfert O, Hallett RH, Newman JA (2008) Will climate change be beneficial or detrimental to the invasive swede midge in North America? Contrasting predictions using climate projections from different general circulation models. Glob Chang Biol 14:1721–1733
Mika AM, Newman JA (2010) Climate change scenarios and models yield conflicting predictions about the future risk of an invasive species in North America. Agric For Entomol 12:213–221
Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G et al (2000) Emissions scenarios. A special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Newman JA (2005) Climate change and the fate of cereal aphids in Southern Britain. Glob Chang Biol 11:940–944
Newman JA (2006) Using the output from global circulation models to predict changes in the distribution and abundance of cereal aphids in Canada: a mechanistic modeling approach. Glob Chang Biol 12:1634–1642
Newman JA, Anand M, Henry HL, Hunt S, Gedalof Z (2011) Climate change biology. CABI, Wallingford
National Cooperated Research Group of Brown Planthopper (NCRGBPH) (1981) Advances in the study of the migration of brown planthopper in China. Sci Agric Sin 14(2):52–59
Olfert O, Weiss RM, Kriticos D (2011) Application of general circulation models to assess the potential impact of climate change on potential distribution and relative abundance of Melanoplus sanguinipes (Fabricius) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in North America. Psyche 2011:Ariticle ID 980372
Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y et al (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467:43–51
Robinson EA, Ryan GD, Newman JA (2012) A meta-analytical review of the effects of elevated CO2 on plant-arthropod interactions highlights the importance of interacting environmental and biological variables. New Phytol 194:321–336
Shi BK, Huang JL, Hu CX, Hou ML (2014) Interactive effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on the brown planthopper on rice plants. J Integr Agric 13:1520–1529
Shou ZB (1983) Developmental threshold temperature and degree days in the brown planthopper. Chin J Appl Entomol 2:52–55
SPSS Inc (1999) SPSS for Windows, Release 10.0.1. SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA
Tang JY, Hu BH, Wang JQ (1996) Outbreak analysis of rice migratory pests in China and recommendations for management strategies. Acta Ecol Sin 16(2):167–173
Xu YL, Jones R (2004) Validating PRECIS with ECMWF reanalysis data over China. Chin J Agrometeorol 25(1):5–9
Yang X-G, Liu Z-J, Chen F (2010) The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China I. The possible effects of climate warming on northern limits of cropping systems and crop yields in China. Sci Agric Sin 43:329–336
Ziter C, Robinson EA, Newman JA (2012) Climate change and voltinism in Californian insect pest species: sensitivity to location, scenario and climate model choice. Glob Chang Biol 18:2771–2780
Acknowledgments
This research was funded by a National Key Basic Research Program project from the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2010CB951503). The authors thank the editors and anonymous reviewers for their very helpful comments on a previous version of this manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hu, C., Hou, M., Wei, G. et al. Potential overwintering boundary and voltinism changes in the brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens, in China in response to global warming. Climatic Change 132, 337–352 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1427-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1427-x