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Bottom-up climate risk assessment of infrastructure investment in the Niger River Basin

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Abstract

The Niger River is the third largest river in the African continent. Nine riparian countries share its basin, which rank all among the world’s thirty poorest. Existing challenges in West Africa, including endemic poverty, inadequate infrastructure and weak adaptive capacity to climate variability, make the region vulnerable to climate change. In this study, a risk-based methodology is introduced and demonstrated for the analysis of climate change impacts on planned infrastructure investments in water resources systems in the Upper and Middle Niger River Basin. The methodology focuses on identifying the vulnerability of the Basin’s socio-economic system to climate change, and subsequently assessing the likelihood of climate risks by using climate information from a multi-run, multi-GCM ensemble of climate projections. System vulnerabilities are analyzed in terms of performance metrics of hydroelectricity production, navigation, dry and rainy season irrigated agriculture, flooding in the Inner Delta of the Niger and the sustenance of environmental flows. The study reveals low to moderate risks in terms of stakeholder-defined threshold levels for most metrics in the 21st Century. The highest risk levels were observed for environmental flow targets. The findings indicate that the range of projected changes in an ensemble of CMIP3 GCM projections imply only relatively low risks of unacceptable climate change impacts on the present large-scale infrastructure investment plan for the Basin.

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Notes

  1. The precipitation elasticity of runoff defines the response of runoff to changes in precipitation and the temperature elasticity defines runoff response to changes in temperature (due to changes in evapotranspiration).

  2. The runoff elasticity of a performance indicator defines the response of the indicator to changes in runoff; for example, a runoff elasticity of 1.5 indicates that a 10 % decrease in runoff causes a 15 % decrease in performance.

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Acknowledgments

This study was undertaken as part of a World Bank funded Climate Risk Assessment for the NRB. The authors would like to express their gratitude to A. Guero, R. Dessoussia, H. Doffou, S. Kone, B. Coulibaly, W. Garvey, N. Harshadeep, A. Tarhule, and the Niger Basin Authority for their significant inputs.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Woods Institute of Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94503, USA

    Y. B. Ghile

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, 01002, USA

    M. Ü. Taner

  3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, 01002, USA

    C. Brown

  4. 230 Arrowlake Road, Wimberley, TX, 78676, USA

    J. G. Grijsen

  5. The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA

    Amal Talbi

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  1. Y. B. Ghile
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  2. M. Ü. Taner
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  3. C. Brown
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  4. J. G. Grijsen
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  5. Amal Talbi
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Correspondence to Y. B. Ghile.

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Ghile, Y.B., Taner, M.Ü., Brown, C. et al. Bottom-up climate risk assessment of infrastructure investment in the Niger River Basin. Climatic Change 122, 97–110 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1008-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1008-9

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