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Consequences of climate change for the soil climate in Central Europe and the central plains of the United States

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Abstract

This study aims to evaluate soil climate quantitatively under present and projected climatic conditions across Central Europe (12.1°–18.9° E and 46.8°–51.1° N) and the U.S. Central Plains (90°–104° W and 37°–49° N), with a special focus on soil temperature, hydric regime, drought risk and potential productivity (assessed as a period suitable for crop growth). The analysis was completed for the baselines (1961–1990 for Europe and 1985–2005 for the U.S.) and time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2100 based on the outputs of three global circulation models using two levels of climate sensitivity. The results indicate that the soil climate (soil temperature and hydric soil regimes) will change dramatically in both regions, with significant consequences for soil genesis. However, the predicted changes of the pathways are very uncertain because of the range of future climate systems predicted by climate models. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that the risk of unfavourable dry years will increase, resulting in greater risk of soil erosion and lower productivity. The projected increase in the variability of dry and wet events combined with the uncertainty (particularly in the U.S.) poses a challenge for selecting the most appropriate adaptation strategies and for setting adequate policies. The results also suggest that the soil resources are likely be under increased pressure from changes in climate.

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Acknowledgments

Projects KONTAKT, LH110010 and National Agency for Agricultural Research QI91C054 helped plan and execute this study. Dr. Trnka was supported by the project “Establishment of International Scientific Team Focused on Drought Research” (no. OP VK CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0248). Dr. Dubrovský was supported by the FP 7 project CLIMSAVE (no. 244031). Dr. Hlavinka was supported by project “Partnership in Climate Research and Adaptation Strategies (no. CZ.1.07/2.4.00/31.0056). We would like to thank Deborah Wood(NDMC) for careful language editing of the final version of the paper and to three anonymous reviewers for helpful comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Zemedelska 1, 613 00, Brno, Czech Republic

    Miroslav Trnka, Petr Hlavinka, Martin Dubrovský, Martin Možný & Zdeněk Žalud

  2. CzechGlobe – Global Change Research Centre, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, v.v.i., Bělidla 986, 4a, 603 00, Brno, Czech Republic

    Miroslav Trnka, Josef Eitzinger, Martin Dubrovský, Daniela Semerádová & Zdeněk Žalud

  3. Leibniz-Center for Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany

    Kurt Christian Kersebaum

  4. Institute of Meteorology, Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan Str. 82, 1190, Vienna, Austria

    Josef Eitzinger

  5. National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 3310 Holdrege Street, Lincoln, NE, 68583, USA

    Michael Hayes, Mark Svoboda & Brian Wardlow

  6. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II-1401, 141 31, Prague, Czech Republic

    Martin Dubrovský

  7. Department of Agrochemistry, Soil Science, Microbiology and Plant Nutrition, Mendel University in Brno, Zemedelska 1, 613 00, Brno, Czech Republic

    Eduard Pokorný

  8. Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Doksany Observatory, 411 82, Doksany 105, Czech Republic

    Martin Možný

  9. School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, 3310 Holdrege Street, Lincoln, NE, 68583, USA

    Don Wilhite

  10. Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Faculty of Agronomy, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, Brno, 613 00, Czech Republic

    Miroslav Trnka

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  1. Miroslav Trnka
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  2. Kurt Christian Kersebaum
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  4. Michael Hayes
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  9. Brian Wardlow
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  10. Eduard Pokorný
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  11. Martin Možný
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  13. Zdeněk Žalud
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Correspondence to Miroslav Trnka.

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Trnka, M., Kersebaum, K.C., Eitzinger, J. et al. Consequences of climate change for the soil climate in Central Europe and the central plains of the United States. Climatic Change 120, 405–418 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0786-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0786-4

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