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Trends in flood seasonality of the River Ouse (Northern England) from archive and instrumental sources since AD 1600

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Abstract

The last decade has witnessed an increase in the application of historical records (historical and documentary) in developing a more complete understanding of high-magnitude flood frequency; but little consideration has been given to the additional information that documentary accounts contain, particularly relating to flood seasonality. This paper examines the methods and approaches available in long-term flood seasonality analysis and applies them to the River Ouse (Yorkshire) in Northern England since AD 1600. A detailed historical flood record is available for the City of York consisting of annual maxima flood levels since AD 1877, with documentary accounts prior to this. A detailed analysis of long-term flood seasonality requires confidence in the accuracy and completeness of flood records; as a result the augmented flood series are analysed using three strategies: firstly, considering all recorded floods since AD 1600; secondly, through detailed analysis of the more complete record since AD 1800; and finally, applying a threshold to focus on high-magnitude flood events since AD 1800. The results identify later winter flooding, particularly in the second half of the twentieth century, with a notable reduction in summer flood events at York during the twentieth century compared to previous centuries. Flood generating mechanisms vary little between the periods considered, with a general pattern of stability in the ratio of floods incorporating a snowmelt component.

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  1. Department of Geography, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 7ZT, UK

    Neil Macdonald

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Macdonald, N. Trends in flood seasonality of the River Ouse (Northern England) from archive and instrumental sources since AD 1600. Climatic Change 110, 901–923 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0117-6

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