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Toward an early warning system for dengue prevention: modeling climate impact on dengue transmission

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Abstract

Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease of humans in tropical lands. As an efficient vaccine is not yet available, the only means to prevent epidemics is to control mosquito populations. These are influenced by human behavior and climatic conditions and thus, need constant effort and are very expansive. Examples of succeeded prevention are rare because of the continuous reintroduction of virus or vector from outside, or growing resistance of mosquito populations to insecticides. Climate variability and global warming are other factors which may favour epidemics of dengue. During a pilot study in Claris EC project, a model for the transmission of dengue was built, to serve as a tool for estimating the risk of epidemic transmission and eventually forecasting the risk under climatic change scenarios. An ultimate objective would be to use the model as an early warning system with meteorological forecasts as input, thus allowing better decision making and prevention.

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Abbreviations

EWS:

Early warning systems

GCM:

Global circulation models

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. LOCEAN-IPSL, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR 182, UPMC Tour 45-55, 4 place Jussieu case 100, 75252, Paris cedex 05, France

    Nicolas Degallier, Christophe Menkes, Matthieu Lengaigne, Jacques Servain & Jean-Philippe Boulanger

  2. Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution (UMR CNRS 5554), Université Montpellier II-pl. E. Bataillon, case courrier 061, 34095, Montpellier cedex 05, France

    Charly Favier

  3. SVS-MS, Esplanada dos Ministérios, Bloco G, Edifício Sede, 1° andar, 70.058-900, Brasília, DF, Brazil

    Walter M. Ramalho & Régilo Souza

  4. Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos (FUNCEME), Av. Rui Barbosa, 1246, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil

    Jacques Servain

Authors
  1. Nicolas Degallier
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  2. Charly Favier
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  3. Christophe Menkes
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  4. Matthieu Lengaigne
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  5. Walter M. Ramalho
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  6. Régilo Souza
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  7. Jacques Servain
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  8. Jean-Philippe Boulanger
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Correspondence to Nicolas Degallier.

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Degallier, N., Favier, C., Menkes, C. et al. Toward an early warning system for dengue prevention: modeling climate impact on dengue transmission. Climatic Change 98, 581–592 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9747-3

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