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Impact of climate-related disasters on human migration in Mexico: a spatial model

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Abstract

The great human-environmental diversity of Mexico provides a framework for an initial understanding of the wide disparities between rich and poor. Mexico is still dominated in many regions by agriculture, and during the last 25 years, weather-related disasters have accounted for about 80% of economic losses. This is dramatic, especially considering that this sector produces only ca. 4% of GDP while providing a livelihood to one-quarter of the country’s population. Based on a spatial model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to catalyzing the emigration process in vulnerable regions throughout Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, we assess the effect of economic losses from disasters in combination with adverse production and trade conditions during the 1990s in triggering out-migration.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera (CCA), Universidad Nacional Autonóma de México (UNAM), Ciudad Universitaria, CP 04510, México, DF, Mexico

    Sergio O. Saldaña-Zorrilla

  2. Swedish Institute for Transport and Communicaton Analysis (SIKA), Akademigatan 2, 831 40, Östersund, Sweden

    Krister Sandberg

Authors
  1. Sergio O. Saldaña-Zorrilla
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  2. Krister Sandberg
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Correspondence to Sergio O. Saldaña-Zorrilla.

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The authors wish to acknowledge the support from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), in Laxenburg, Austria, where most of this research was conducted. The views expressed in this article, and any errors, remain the authors’ sole responsibility.

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Saldaña-Zorrilla, S.O., Sandberg, K. Impact of climate-related disasters on human migration in Mexico: a spatial model. Climatic Change 96, 97–118 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9577-3

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