Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Misperceptions of global climate change: information policies

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Previous experimental studies have found that people generally misperceive the basic dynamics of renewable resources, and in particular the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The purpose of the present laboratory experiment is to find out why people misperceive the dynamics of CO2 accumulation and how misperceptions could be avoided. Using a simulator, 242 subjects were each asked to control total global emissions of CO2 to reach a given target for the stock of CO2 in the atmosphere. Consistent with previous investigations we find a strong tendency for people to overshoot the stated goal. Furthermore, our results point out that people need help to develop proper mental models of CO2 accumulation and they need motivation to reconsider inappropriate decision heuristics. Based on these results and the literature on conceptual change a new information strategy is designed. To motivate, it imposes cognitive conflict; and to facilitate new understanding, it provides simple analogies. A new test shows promising learning effects. The results have important implications for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), governments, and media covering the climatic change issue as well as for general education.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bakken BE (1993) Learning and transfer of understanding in dynamic decision environments. PhD dissertation. Cambridge, MIT Sloan School of Management

  • Bell A (1994) Climate of opinion: public and media discourse on the global environment. Discourse Soc 5(1):33–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bord RJ, Fisher A et al (1998) Public perceptions of global warming: United States and international perspectives. Clim Res 11(1):75–84

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bostrom A, Morgan MG et al (1994) What do people know about global climate change. 1. Mental models. Risk Anal 14(6):959–970

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brehmer B (1992) Dynamic decision making: human control of complex systems. Acta Psychol 81:211–241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brigham FR, Laios C (1975) Operator performance in the control of a simulated process plant. Ergonomics 18:53–66

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Broadbent D, FitzGerald P et al (1986) Implicit and explicit knowledge in the control of complex systems. Br J Psychol 77:33–50

    Google Scholar 

  • Camerer CF, Hogarth RM (1999) The effects of financial incentives in experiments: a review and capital–labor–production framework. J Risk Uncertain 19(1–3):7–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark WC (ed) (1982) Carbon dioxide review. Oxford University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Doyle JK, Ford DN (1998) Mental models concepts for system dynamics research. Syst Dyn Rev 14(1):3–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duit R (2003) Conceptual change: a powerful framework for improving science teaching and learning. Int J Sci Educ 25(6):671–688

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dunlap RE (1998) Lay perceptions of global risk: public views of global warming in cross-national context. Int Sociol 13(4):473–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Forrester JW (1961) Industrial dynamics. MIT, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Funke J (1991) Solving complex problems: exploration and control of complex systems. In: Sternberg R, Frensch P (eds) Complex problem solving: principles and mechanisms. Lawrence Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ

    Google Scholar 

  • Groves F, Pugh A (1999) Elementary pre-service teacher perceptions of the greenhouse effect. J Sci Educ Technol 11(4):381–390

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2001a) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva

  • IPCC (2001b) IPCC third assessment report: climate change mitigation. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva

  • Jensen E (2005) Learning and transfer from a simple dynamic system. Scand J Psychol 46(2):119–131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keeling CD, Whorf TP (2002) Atmospheric CO2 concentrations (ppmv) derived from in situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. Carbon Dioxide Research Group, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California, La Jolla, CA

  • Kempton W (1991) Public understanding of global warming. Soc Nat Resour 4(4):331–345

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kirschner PA, Sweller J et al (2006) Why minimal guidance during instruction does not work: an analysis of the failure of constructivist, discovery, problem-based, experiential, and inquiry-based teaching. Educ Psychol 41(2):75–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Limon M (2001) On the cognitive conflict as an instructional strategy for conceptual change: a critical appraisal. Learn Instr 11(4–5):357–380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meadows G, Wiesenmayer R (1999) Identifying and addressing students’ alternative conceptions of the causes of global warming: the need for cognitive conflict. J Sci Educ Technol 8:235–239

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moxnes E (1998a) Not only the tragedy of the commons, misperceptions of bioeconomics. Manage Sci 44(9):1234–1248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moxnes E (1998b) Overexploitation of renewable resources: the role of misperceptions. J Econ Behav Organ 37(1):107–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moxnes E (2004) Misperceptions of basic dynamics, the case of renewable resource management. Syst Dyn Rev 20(2):139–162

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moxnes E, Saysel AK (2004) Misperceptions of basic climate change dynamics: information policies. WP 1/04. System Dynamics Group, University of Bergen, Bergen. Available at: http://www.ifi.uib.no/sd/wp.html

  • Palutikof JP, Agnew MD et al (2004) Public perceptions of unusually warm weather in the UK: impacts, responses and adaptations. Clim Res 26(1):43–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Plous S (1993) The psychology of judgment and decision making. McGraw Hill, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Posner GJ, Strike KA et al (1982) Accommodation of scientific conception: towards a theory of conceptual change. Sci Educ 66:211–227

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Read D, Bostrom A et al (1994) What do people know about global climate change. 2. Survey studies of educated laypeople. Risk Anal 14(6):971–982

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rebetez M (1996) Public expectation as an element of human perception of climate change. Clim Change 32(4):495–509

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogers EM (1995) Diffusion of innovations. Free Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Rouwette EAJA, Grossler A et al (2004) Exploring influencing factors on rationality: a literature review of dynamic decision-making studies in system dynamics. Syst Res Behav Sci 21(4):351–370

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seacrest S, Kuzelka R et al (2000) Global climate change and public perception: the challenge of translation. J Am Water Resour Assoc 36(2):253–263

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shanahan J, Good J (2000) Heat and hot air: influence of local temperature on journalists’ coverage of global warming. Public Underst Sci 9(3):285–295

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith VL (1982) Microeconomic systems as an experimental science. Am Econ Rev 72(5):923–955

    Google Scholar 

  • Stamm KR, Clark F et al (2000) Mass communication and public understanding of problems: the case of global warming. Public Underst Sci 9(13):219–237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sterman JD (1989) Misperceptions of feedback in dynamic decision making. Org Behav Human Decis Process 43(3):301–335

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sterman JD, Booth Sweeney L (2002) Cloudy skies: assessing public understanding of global warming. Syst Dyn Rev 18(2):207–240

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sterman JD, Sweeney LB (2007) Understanding public complacency about climate change: adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter. Clim Change 80(3–4):213–238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stern N, Peters S et al (2006) Stern review: the economics of climate change. HM Treasury, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Tversky A, Kahneman D (1974) Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185:1124–1131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Venville GJ, Treagust DF (1996) The role of analogies in promoting conceptual change in biology. Instr Sci 24:295–320

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. System Dynamics Group, Department of Geography, University of Bergen, Fosswinkelsgt. 6, 5007, Bergen, Norway

    Erling Moxnes

  2. Institute of Environmental Sciences, Boǧaziçi University, 34342, Bebek, İstanbul, Turkey

    Ali Kerem Saysel

Authors
  1. Erling Moxnes
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ali Kerem Saysel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ali Kerem Saysel.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Moxnes, E., Saysel, A.K. Misperceptions of global climate change: information policies. Climatic Change 93, 15–37 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9465-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9465-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation