Abstract
This study examined the performance and future predictions for the Middle East produced by 18 global climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 emissions scenario the models predict an overall temperature increase of ~1.4 K by mid-century, increasing to almost 4 K by late-century for the Middle East. In terms of precipitation the southernmost portion of the domain experiences a small increase in precipitation due to the Northward movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. The largest change however is a decrease in precipitation that occurs in an area covering the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey, Syria, Northern Iraq, Northeastern Iran and the Caucasus caused by a decrease in storm track activity over the Eastern Mediterranean. Other changes likely to impact the region include a decrease of over 170,000 km2 in viable rainfed agriculture land by late-century, increases in the length of the dry season that reduces the length of time that the rangelands can be grazed, and changes in the timing of the maximum precipitation in Northern Iran that will impact the growing season, forcing changes in cropping strategy or even crop types.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adler RF, Huffman GJ, Chang A, Ferraro R, Xie PP, Janowiak J, Rudolf B, Schneider U, Curtis S, Bolvin D, Gruber A, Susskind J, Arkin P, Nelkin E (2003) The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present). J Hydrometeorol 4:1147–1167
Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Roeckner E (2006) Storm tracks and climate change. J Clim 19:3518–3543
Evans JP, Smith RB, Oglesby RJ (2004) Middle East climate simulation and dominant precipitation processes. Int J Climatol 24:1671–1694
Evans J, Geerken R (2004) Discrimination between climate and human induced dryland degradation. J Arid Environ 57:535–554
Greene AM, Goddard L, Lall U (2006) Probabilistic multimodel regional temperature change projections. J Clim 19:4326–4343
Hansen J, Ruedy R, Glascoe J Sato M (1999) GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J Geophys Res-Atmos 104:30997–31022
Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Imhoff M, Lawrence W, Easterling D, Peterson T, Karl T (2001) A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J Geophys Res-Atmos 106:23947–23963
IPCC (2000) Special report on emission scenarios. Intergovernmental panel on climate change. Accessed at http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm
Jones PD, Moberg A (2003) Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and an update to 2001. J Clim 16:206–223
Lambert SJ, Fyfe JC (2006) Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise. Clim Dyn 26:713–728
Legates DR, McCabe GJ (1999) Evaluating the use of “goodness-of-fit” measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation. Water Resour Res 35:233–241
Mann ME (2002) Large-scale climate variability and connections with the Middle East in past centuries. Clim Change 55:287–314
Miller P, Lanier W, Brandt S (2001) Using growing degree days to predict plant stages, Montguide fact sheet. Montana State University Extension Service, Bozeman
Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models. Part I—A discussion of principles. J Hydrol 10:282–290
Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late 19th century. J Geophys Res 108:4407
Xie P, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly basis analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numberical model outputs. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78(11):2539–2558
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Evans, J.P. 21st century climate change in the Middle East. Climatic Change 92, 417–432 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9438-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9438-5