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Imprecise probabilities of climate change: aggregation of fuzzy scenarios and model uncertainties

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Abstract

Whilst the majority of the climate research community is now set upon the objective of generating probabilistic predictions of climate change, disconcerting reservations persist. Attempts to construct probability distributions over socio-economic scenarios are doggedly resisted. Variation between published probability distributions of climate sensitivity attests to incomplete knowledge of the prior distributions of critical parameters and structural uncertainties in climate models. In this paper we address these concerns by adopting an imprecise probability approach. We think of socio-economic scenarios as fuzzy linguistic constructs. Any precise emissions trajectory (which is required for climate modelling) can be thought of as having a degree of membership in a fuzzy scenario. Next, it is demonstrated how fuzzy scenarios can be propagated through a low-dimensional climate model, MAGICC. Fuzzy scenario uncertainties and imprecise probabilistic representation of climate model uncertainties are combined using random set theory to generate lower and upper cumulative probability distributions for Global Mean Temperature anomaly. Finally we illustrate how non-additive measures provide a flexible framework for aggregation of scenarios, which can represent some of the semantics of socio-economic scenarios that defy conventional probabilistic representation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK

    Jim Hall

  2. School of Engineering, Computer Science & Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK

    Guangtao Fu

  3. Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK

    Jonathan Lawry

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  1. Jim Hall
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  2. Guangtao Fu
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  3. Jonathan Lawry
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Correspondence to Jim Hall.

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Hall, J., Fu, G. & Lawry, J. Imprecise probabilities of climate change: aggregation of fuzzy scenarios and model uncertainties. Climatic Change 81, 265–281 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9175-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9175-6

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