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Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Climate Model Evaluations

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Abstract

This paper describes an approach to computing probabilistic assessments of future climate, using a climate model. It clarifies the nature of probability in this context, and illustrates the kinds of judgements that must be made in order for such a prediction to be consistent with the probability calculus. The climate model is seen as a tool for making probabilistic statements about climate itself, necessarily involving an assessment of the model’s imperfections. A climate event, such as a 2^C increase in global mean temperature, is identified with a region of ‘climate-space’, and the ensemble of model evaluations is used within a numerical integration designed to estimate the probability assigned to that region.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Durham, Science Site, Stockton Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK

    Jonathan Rougier

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  1. Jonathan Rougier
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Correspondence to Jonathan Rougier.

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Rougier, J. Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Climate Model Evaluations. Climatic Change 81, 247–264 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9156-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9156-9

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