Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Climate Change and Floodplain Management in the United States

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Federal agencies use flood frequency estimates to delineate flood risk, manage the National Flood Insurance Program, and ensure that Federal programs are economically efficient. The assumption behind traditional flood risk analysis is that climate is stationary, but anthropogenic climate change and better knowledge of interdecadal climate variability challenge the validity of the assumption. This paper reviews several alternative statistical models for flood risk estimation that do not assume climate stationarity. Some models require subjective judgement or presuppose an understanding of the causes of the underlying non-stationarity, which is problematic given our current knowledge of the interaction of climate and floods. Although currently out of favor, hydrometeorological models have been used for engineering design as alternatives to statistical models and could be adapted to different climate conditions. Floodplain managers should recognize the potentially greater uncertainty in flood risk estimation due to climate change and variability and try to incorporate the uncertainties into floodplain management decision-making and regulation.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Arnell, N.: 2000, ‘Thresholds and response to climate change forcing: The water sector’, Climatic Change 46, 305–316.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arnell, N. and Hulme, M.: 2000, Implications of Climate Change for Large Dams and their Management, Thematic Review II.2 prepared as an input to the World Commission on Dams, Cape Town, www.dams.org.

  • Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., and Reinsel, G. C.: 1994, Time Series Analysis. Forecasting and Control. 3rd edition, Prentice Hall.

  • Chao, P. T., Floyd, J. L., and Holliday, W. C.: 1998, Empirical Studies of the Effect of Flood Risk on Housing Properties, Alexandria, VA: Institute for Water Resources, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, IWR Report 98-PS-2.

  • Chivers, J. and Flores, N. E.: 2002, ‘Market failure in information: The national flood insurance program’, Land Economics 78(4), 515–521.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douglas, E. M., Vogel, R. M. and Kroll, C. N.: 2000, ‘Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation’, J. Hydrol. 240, 90–105.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA): 2001, Introduction to the NFIP. http://www.fema.gov/nfip/intnfip.htm#4, Updated: June 21, 2001.

  • Federal Interagency Floodplain Management Task Force (Fed FPM TF): 1992, Floodplain Management in the United States: An Assessment Report.

  • Federal Interagency Floodplain Management Task Force (Fed FPM TF): 1994, A Unified National Program for Floodplain Management.

  • Felzer, B. and Heard, P.: 1999, ‘Precipitation differences amongst GCMs used for the U.S. national assessment’, J. Am. Water Resour. As. 35, 1327–1339.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frederick, K. D., Major, D. C., and Stakhiv, E. Z.: 1997, ‘Water resources planning principles and evaluation criteria for climate change: Summary and conclusions’, Climatic Change 37, 291–313.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • General Accounting Office (GAO): 2001, ‘Flood Insurance Information on the Financial Condition of the National Flood Insurance Program’, Statement of Stanley J. Czerwinski, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues, GAO-01-992T.

  • Gleick, P. H.: 2000, Water: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the Water Resources of the United States. The Report of the Water Sector Assessment Team of the National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change For the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security.

  • Groisman, P. Ya., Knight, R. W., and Karl, T. R.: 2001, ‘Heavy precipitation and high streamflow in the contiguous united states: Trends in the twentieth century’, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82(2), 219–246.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Groisman, P. Ya., Knight, R. W., Karl, T. R., Easterling, D. R., Sun, B., and Lawrimore, J. H.: 2004, ‘Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous united states: Trends derived from In situ observations’, Journal of Hydrometeorology 5, 64–85.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hobbs, B. F., Chao, P. T., and Venkatesh, B. N.: 1997, ‘Using decision analysis to include climate change in water resource decision making’, Climatic Change 37, 177–202.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holway, J. M. and Burby, R. J.: 1990, ‘The effects of floodplain development controls on residential land values’, Land Economics 66(3), 259–271.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Interagency Committee on Water Data (IACWD), (Bulletin 17-B of the Hydrology Committee originally published by the Water Resources Council), 1982. Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency, Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Interagency Floodplain Management Review Committee (IFMRC), (Galloway Report): 1994, Sharing the Challenge: Floodplain Management into the 21st Century. Report of the Interagency Floodplain Management Review Committee to the Administration Floodplain Management Task Force. Washington, D.C.: U.S. government Printing Office.

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group I, (IPCC) 2001a, Climate Change 2001: Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report.

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II, (IPCC) 2001b, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Technical Summary. A Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

  • Jain, S. and Lall, U.: 2000, ‘Magnitude and timing of annual maximum floods: Trends and large-scale climatic associations for Blacksmith Fork River, Utah’, Water Resources Research 36(12), 3641–3651.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karl, T. R., Knight, R. W., and Plummer, N.: 1995, ‘Trends in high frequency climate variability in the twentieth century’, Nature 377, 217–220.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karl, T. R. and Knight, R. W.: 1998, ‘Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States’, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 79(2), 231–241.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kunkel, K. E., Andsager, K., and Easterling, D. R.: 1999, ‘Long-term trends in extreme precipitation events over the Conterminous United States and Canada’, J. Climate 12, 2515–2527.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Larson, L. and Plasencia, D.: 2001, ‘No adverse impact: New direction in floodplain management policy’, Natural Hazards Review November 167–181.

  • Lins, H. F. and Slack, J. R.: 1998, ‘Streamflow trends in the United States’, Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 227–230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lord, W. B.: 1994, ‘Flood hazard delineation: The one percent standard’, Water Resour. Update, Issue No. 95: 36–39.

  • Lowrance, W. W.: 1976, Of Acceptable Risk, William Kaufmann, Inc., Los Altos, CA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Matalas, N. C.: 1997, ‘Stochastic hydrology in the context of climate change’, Climatic Change 37: 89–101.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matalas, N. C.: 1999, Flood Frequency Analysis in the Upper Mississippi and Missouri Basins, Planning and Management Consultants, Ltd, Carbondale, IL. Available at: http://www.mvr.usace.army.mil/pdw/pdf/FlowFrequency/Documents/FinalReport/default.asp

  • Matalas, N. C.: 2001, Uncertainty of Flood Frequency Estimates, Planning and Management Consultants, Ltd, Carbondale, IL. Available at: http://www.mvr.usace.army.mil/pdw/pdf/FlowFrequency/Documents/FinalReport/default.asp

  • Matalas, N. C. and Olsen, J. R.: 2001, ‘Analysis of trends and persistence in hydrologic records’, Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources IX, Proceedings of the Ninth Conference, United Engineering Foundation, Santa Barbara, CA, Oct. 15–20, 2000, pp. 61–76, Amer. Society of Civil Engineers, Reston.

  • McCabe, G. J. and Wolock, D. M.: 2003, ‘A step increase in streamflow in the conterminous United States’, Geophys. Res. Lett. 29(24), 38-1–38-4.

    Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, M. G. and Henrion, M.: 1990, Uncertainty A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moss, R. H. and Schneider, S. H.: 2000, ‘Uncertainties in the IPCC TAR: Recommendations to lead authors for more consistent assessment and reporting’, In: Guidance Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. R. Pachauri, T. Taniguchi and K. Tanaka, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, pp. 33–51.

  • National Assessment Synthesis Team (NAST): 2001, Climate Change Impacts on the United States The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. A Report for the US Global Change Research Program. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

  • National Research Council, Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems, Water Science and Technology Board, Committee on Safety Criteria for Dams, 1985. Safety of Dams Flood and Earthquake Criteria, National Academy Press, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (NRC), Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate: 1998, Decade-to-Century Scale Climate Variability and Change A Science Strategy, National Academy Press, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (NRC), Water Science and Technology Board, Committee on American River Flood Frequencies: 1999, Imroving American River Flood Frequency Analyses, National Academy Press, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (NRC), Water Science and Technology Board, 2000a, Envisioning the Agenda for Water Resources Research in the Twenty-first Century, National Academy Press, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (NRC), Water Science and Technology Board, 2000b, Risk Analysis and Uncertainty in Flood Damage Reduction Studies, National Academy Press, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (NRC), Water Science and Technology Board, Committee to Assess the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Methods of Analysis and Peer Review for Water Resources Project Planning, Panel on Methods and Techniques of Project Analysis, 2004. Analytical Methods and Approaches for Water Resources Project Planning, The National Academies Press, Washington DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Olsen, J. R., Beling, P. A., and Lambert, J. H.: 2000, ‘Dynamic models for floodplain management’, J. Water Res. Pl. ASCE 126(3): 167–175.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olsen, J. R., Stedinger, J. R., Matalas, N. C., and Stakhiv, E. Z.: 1999, ‘Climate variability and flood frequency estimation for the upper mississippi and lower missouri rivers’, J. Am. Water Resour. As. 35, 1509–1523.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Office of Management and Budget: 1992, Guidelines and Discount Rates for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Federal Programs, Circular No. A-94, Memorandum for Heads of Executive Departments and Establishments, Available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars/a094/a094.pdf

  • Pasterick, E. T.: 1998, ‘The national flood insurance program’, in Howard Kunreuther, and Richard J. Roth, Sr., (eds.), Paying the Price The Status and Role of Insurance Against Natural Disasters in the United States, Joseph Henry Press, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pielke, R. A., Jr. and Downton, M. W.: 2000, ‘Precipitation and damaging floods: Trends in the United States, 1932-97’, J. Climate 13, 3625–3637.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Porter, T. M.: 1995, Trust in Numbers The Pursuit of Objectivity in Science and Public Life. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sankarasubramanian, A. and Lall, U.: 2003, ‘Flood quantiles in a changing climate: Seasonal forecasts and causal relations’, Water Resources Research 39(5), SWC 4-1–SWC 4-11.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sarewitz, D. and Pielke, R., Jr.: 2001, ‘Extreme events: A research and policy framework for disasters in context’, International Geology Review 43, 406–418.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sarewitz, D., Pielke, R., Jr., and Keykhah, M.: 2003, ‘Vulnerability and risk: Some thoughts from a political and policy perspective’, Risk Analysis 23(4), 805–810.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Stakhiv, E. Z.: 1998, ‘Policy implications of climate change impacts on water resources management’, Water Policy 1(1), 159–175.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stedinger, J. R. and Crainiceanu, C. M.: 2001, Climate Variability and Flood Risk Assessment, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY. Available at: http://www.mvr.usace.army.mil/pdw/pdf/FlowFrequency/Documents/FinalReport/default.asp

  • Thomas, W. O., Jr.: 1985, ‘A uniform technique for flood frequency analysis’, J. Water Res. Pl. ASCE 111(3), 321–337.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth, K. E.: 1999, ‘Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate change’, Climatic Change 42, 327–339.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, (USACE): 1965, Standard Project Flood Determinations, Engineer Manual EM 1110-2-1411, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, (USACE): 1996, Risk-Based Analysis for Flood Damage Reduction Studies. Engineer Manual EM 1110-2-1619, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, CECW-EH-Y, Washington DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: 1997, Engineering and Design - Hydrologic Engineering Requirements for Reservoirs, Engineer Manual EM 1110-2-1420, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, CECW-EH-Y, Washington DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • United States Water Resources Council (USWRC): 1981, Floodplain Management Handbook.

  • United States Water Resources Council (USWRC): 1983, Economic and Environmental Principles and Guidelines for Water and Related Land Resources Implementation Studies.

  • Wolock, D. M. and McCabe, G. J.: 1999, ‘Estimates of runoff using water-balance and atmospheric general circulation models,’ J. Am. Water Resour. As. 35, 1341–1350.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Water Resources, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, CEIWR-PD, Casey Building, 7701 Telegraph Road, Alexandria, VA, 22315, USA

    J. Rolf Olsen

Authors
  1. J. Rolf Olsen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to J. Rolf Olsen.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Olsen, J.R. Climate Change and Floodplain Management in the United States. Climatic Change 76, 407–426 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9020-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9020-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation