References
Andronova, N. and Schlesinger, M.: 2001, ‘Objective estimation of the probability distribution for climate sensitivity’, J. Geophys. Res. 106, 22, 605–22, 612.
Dessai, S. and Hulme, M.: 2004, ‘Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities?’ Clim. Policy. (in press).
Forest, C., Stone, P., Sokolov, A., Allen, M., and Webster, M.: 2002, ‘Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations’, Science 295, 113–117.
Gregory, J., Stouffer, R., Raper, S., Stott, P., and Rayner, N.: 2002, ‘An observationally based estimate of climate sensitivity’, J. Clim. 15(22), 3117–3121.
Grübler, A. and Nakićenović, N.: 2001, ‘Identifying dangers in an uncertain climate’, Nature 412, 15.
Keepin, W.: 1986, ‘Review of global energy and carbon dioxide projections’, Ann. Rev. Energy 3(11), 357–392.
Manning, M.: 2003, ‘The difficulty of communicating uncertainty’, Clim. Change 61, 9–16.
Morgan, G. and Keith, D.: 1995, ‘Subjective judgements by climate experts’, Env. Sci. Technol. 29, 468–476.
Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B. et al.: 2000, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 599 pp.
Pittock, A., Jones, R. and Mitchell, C.: 2001, ‘Probabilities will help us plan for climate change’, Nature 413, 249.
Schneider, S. H.: 2001, ‘What is ‘dangerous’ climate change?’ Nature 411, 17–19.
Schneider, S. H.: 2002, ‘Can we estimate the likelihood of climatic changes at 2100?’ Clim. Change 52(4): 441–451.
United Nations.: 1992, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Text available at http://unfccc.int.
van der Sluijs, J.: 1997, Anchoring Amid Uncertainty, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, Ph.D. Thesis, 260 pp.
Webster, M.: 2003, ‘Communicating climate change uncertainty to policy-makers and the public’, Clim. Change 61, 1–8.
Webster, M., Forest, C., Reilly, J., Babiker, M., Kicklighter, D., Mayer, M., Prinn, R., Sarofim, M., Sokolov, A., Stone, P., and Wang, C.: 2003, ‘Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response’, Clim. Change 61, 295–320.
Wigley, T. and Raper, S.: 2001, ‘Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming’, Science 293, 451–454.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
RISBEY, J.S. Agency and the Assignment of Probabilities to Greenhouse Emissions Scenarios. Climatic Change 67, 37–42 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-004-3762-1
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-004-3762-1