Abstract
For Hispanic women, the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT; “Gail Model”) combines 1990–1996 breast cancer incidence for Hispanic women with relative risks for breast cancer risk factors from non-Hispanic white (NHW) women. BCRAT risk projections have never been comprehensively evaluated for Hispanic women. We compared the relative risks and calibration of BCRAT risk projections for 6,353 Hispanic to 128,976 NHW postmenopausal participants aged 50 and older in the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI). Calibration was assessed by the ratio of the number of breast cancers observed with that expected by the BCRAT (O/E). We re-evaluated calibration for an updated BCRAT that combined BCRAT relative risks with 1993–2007 breast cancer incidence that is contemporaneous with the WHI. Cox regression was used to estimate relative risks. Discriminatory accuracy was assessed using the concordance statistic (AUC). In the WHI Main Study, the BCRAT underestimated the number of breast cancers by 18% in both Hispanics (O/E = 1.18, P = 0.06) and NHWs (O/E = 1.18, P < 0.001). Updating the BCRAT improved calibration for Hispanic women (O/E = 1.08, P = 0.4) and NHW women (O/E = 0.98, P = 0.2). For Hispanic women, relative risks for number of breast biopsies (1.71 vs. 1.27, P = 0.03) and age at first birth (0.97 vs. 1.24, P = 0.02) differed between the WHI and BCRAT. The AUC was higher for Hispanic women than NHW women (0.63 vs. 0.58, P = 0.03). Updating the BCRAT with contemporaneous breast cancer incidence rates improved calibration in the WHI. The modest discriminatory accuracy of the BCRAT for Hispanic women might improve by using risk factor relative risks specific to Hispanic women.
Abbreviations
- BCRAT:
-
Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool
- NHW:
-
Non-Hispanic white
- SEER:
-
Surveillance, epidemiology, and end results
- WHI:
-
Women’s Health Initiative
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Acknowledgments
This research was supported, in part, by the National Cancer Institute Biobehavioral Cancer Prevention and Control Training Program (grant number R25CA092408) at the University of Washington and the Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health/National Cancer Institute. The Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) program is funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services through contracts N01WH22110, 24152, 32100-2, 32105-6, 32108-9, 32111-13, 32115, 32118-32119, 32122, 42107-26, 42129-32, and 44221. The authors thank the WHI investigators and staff for their dedication, and the study participants for making the program possible. A listing of WHI investigators can be found at http://www.whiscience.org/publications/WHI_investigators_shortlist.pdf.
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Banegas, M.P., Gail, M.H., LaCroix, A. et al. Evaluating breast cancer risk projections for Hispanic women. Breast Cancer Res Treat 132, 347–353 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10549-011-1900-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10549-011-1900-9