Abstract
Elephant are increasing across some areas of Africa leading to concerns that they may reduce woodlands through their feeding. Droughts may help limit elephant numbers, but they are generally both episodic and local. To explore more general impacts of rainfall, we examine how its annual variation influences elephant survival across ten sites. These sites span an almost coast-to-coast transect of southern Africa that holds the majority of the ~500,000 remaining savanna elephants. Elephants born in high rainfall years survive better than elephants born in low rainfall years. The relationship is generally weak, except at the two fenced sites, where rainfall greatly influenced juvenile survival. In these two sites, there are also extensive networks of artificial water. Rainfall likely affects elephant survival through its influence on food. The provision of artificial water opens new areas for elephants in the dry season, while fencing restricts their movements in the wet season. We conclude that the combination of these factors makes elephant survival more susceptible to reductions in rainfall. As a result, elephants living in enclosed reserves may be the first populations to feel the impacts of global warming which will decrease average rainfall and increase the frequency of droughts. A way to prevent these elephants from damaging the vegetation within these enclosed parks is for managers to reduce artificial water sources or, whenever practical, to remove fences.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Barnes ME (2001) Effects of large herbivores and fire on the regeneration of Acacia erioloba woodlands in Chobe National Park, Botswana. Afr J Ecol 39:340–350
Ben-Shahar R (1993) Patterns of elephant damage to vegetation in northern Botswana. Biol Cons 65:249–256
Blanc JJ, Thouless CR, Hart JA, Dublin HT, Douglas-Hamilton I, Craig CG, Barnes, RFW (2003) African elephant status report 2002: an update from the African elephant database. IUCN/SSC African Elephant Specialist Group. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, Cambridge
Blanc JJ, Barnes RFW, Craig CG, Dublin HT, Thouless CR, Douglas-Hamilton I, Hart JA (2007) African elephant status report 2007: an update from the African elephant database. Occasional Paper Series of the IUCN Species Survival Commission, No. 33. IUCN/SSC African Elephant Specialist Group. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge. vi + 276 pp
Bonenfant C, Gaillard JM, Coulson T, Festa-Bianchet M, Loison A, Garel M, Loe LE, Blanchard P, Pettorelli N, Owen-Smith N, Du Toit J, Duncan P (2009) Empirical evidence of density-dependence in populations of large herbivores. Adv Ecol Res 41:313–357
Brits J, van Rooyen MW, van Rooyen N (2002) Ecological impact of large herbivores on the woody vegetation at selected watering points on the eastern basaltic soils in the Kruger National Park. Afr J Ecol 40:53–60
Chamaillé-Jammes S, Valeix M, Fritz H (2007) Managing heterogeneity in elephant distribution: interactions between elephant population density and surface-water availability. J Appl Ecol 44:625–633
Chamaillé-Jammes S, Fritz H, Valeix M, Murindagomo F, Colbert J (2008) Resource variability, aggregation and direct density dependence in an open context: the local regulation of an African elephant population. J Anim Ecol 77:135–144
Coe MJ, Cumming DHM, Phillipson J (1976) Biomass and the production of large African herbivores in relation to rainfall and primary productivity. Oecologia 22:341–354
Corfield TF (1973) Elephant mortality in Tsavo National Park, Kenya. E Afr Wildl J 11:339–368
Cumming DHM, Fenton MB, Rautenbach IL, Taylor RD, Cumming GS, Cumming MS, Dunlop JM, Ford GA, Hovorka MD, Johnston DS, Kalcounis M, Portfors Mahlangu Z, VR C (1997) Elephants, woodlands and biodiversity in southern Africa. S Afr J Sci 93:231–236
de Beer Y, van Aarde R (2008) Do landscape heterogeneity and water distribution explain aspects of elephant home range in southern Africa’s arid savannas? J Arid Environ 72:2017–2025
de Beer Y, Kilian W, Versfeld W, van Aarde R (2006) Elephants and low rainfall alter woody vegetation in Etosha National Park, Namibia. J Arid Environ 64:412–421
Dudley JP, Craig GC, DStC Gibson, Haynes G, Kilmowicz J (2001) Drought mortality of bush elephants in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. Afr J Ecol 39:187–194
Dunham KM, Robertson EF, Grant CC (2004) Rainfall and the decline of a rare antelope, the tsessebe (Damaliscus lunatus lunatus), in Kruger National Park, South Africa. Biol Conserv 117:83–94
Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO (2000) Climate extremes: observations, modelling and impacts. Science 289:2068–2074
Foley C, Pettorelli N, Foley L (2008) Severe drought and calf survival in elephants. Biol Lett 4:541–544
Fritz H, Duncan P (1994) On the carrying capacity for large ungulates of African savanna ecosystems. Proc Roy Soc Lond B 256:77–82
Gaillard JM, Festa-Bianchet M, Yoccoz NG (1998) Population dynamics of large herbivores: variable recruitment with constant adult survival. Trends Ecol Evol 13:58–63
Gaillard JM, Festa-Bianchet M, Yoccoz NG, Loison A, Toïgo C (2000) Temporal variation in fitness components and population dynamics of large herbivores. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 31:367–393
Giannini A, Biasutti M, Held IM, Sobel AH (2008) A global perspective on African climate. Clim Change 90:359–383
Guldemond R, van Aarde RJ (2007) The impact of elephants on plants and their community variables in South Africa’s Maputaland. Afr J Ecol 45:327–335
Guldemond R, van Aarde RJ (2008) A meta-analysis of the impact of African Elephants on Savanna vegetation. J Wildl Manag 72:892–899
Harris GM, Russell GJ, van Aarde R, Pimm SL (2008) Rules of habitat use by elephants Loxodonta africana in southern Africa: insights for regional management. Oryx 42:66–75
Illius AW, O’Conner TG (2000) Resource heterogeneity and ungulate population dynamics. Oikos 89:283–294
Kerley GIH, Landman M (2006) The impacts of elephants on biodiversity in the Eastern Cape Subtropical Thickets. S Afr J Sci 102:395–402
Kerley GIH, Landman M, Kruger L, Owen-Smith N, Balfour D, de Boer WF, Gaylard A, Lindsay K, Slotow R (2008) Effects of elephants on ecosystems and biodiversity. In: Scholes RJ, Mennell KG (eds) Elephant management: a scientific assessment for South Africa. Wits University Press, South Africa
Lee PC, Moss CJ (1986) Early maternal investment in male and female African elephant calves. Behav Ecol Sociobiol 18:353–361
Loarie SR, van Aarde RJ, Pimm SL (2009a) Fences and artificial water affect African savannah elephant movement patterns. Biol Conserv 142:3086–3098
Loarie SR, van Aarde RJ, Pimm SL (2009b) Elephant seasonal vegetation preferences across dry and wet savannas. Biol Conserv 142:3099–3107
Loveridge AJ, Hunt JE, Murindagomo F, Macdonald DW (2006) Influence of drought on predation of elephant (Loxodonta africana) calves by lions (Panthera leo) in an African wooded savannah. J Zool 270:523–530
Ma ZG, Fu CB (2007) Global aridification in the second half of the 20th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background. Sci China D Earth Sci 50:776–788
Mduma SAR, Sinclair ARE, Hilborn R (1999) Food regulates the Serengeti wildebeest: a 40-year record. J Anim Ecol 68:1101–1122
Moss C (1988) Elephant memories. William Morrow and Company, USA
O’Connor TG, Goodman PS, Clegg B (2007) A functional hypothesis of the threat of local extirpation of woody plant species by elephant in Africa. Biol Conserv 136:329–345
Ogutu JO, Owen-Smith N (2003) ENSO, rainfall and temperature influences on extreme population declines among African savanna ungulates. Ecol Lett 6:412–419
Ogutu JO, Piepho HP, Dublin HT, Bhola N, Reid RS (2008) Rainfall influences on ungulate population abundance in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. J Anim Ecol 77:814–829
Owens MJ, Owens D (2009) Early age reproduction in female savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) after severe poaching. Afr J Ecol 47:214–222
Owen-Smith N (1990) Demography of a large herbivore, the greater kudu Tragelaphus strepsiceros, in relation to rainfall. J Anim Ecol 59:893–913
Owen-Smith N (1996) Ecological guidelines for waterpoints in extensive protected areas. S Afr J Wild Res 26:107–112
Paeth H, Thamm HP (2007) Reginoal modelling of future African climate north of 15 degrees S including greenhouse warming and land degradation. Clim Change 83:401–427
Phillipson J (1975) Rainfall, primary production and ‘carrying capacity’ of Tsavo National Park (East), Kenya. E Afr Wildl J 13:171–201
Rutherford MC (1980) Annual plant production–precipitation relations in arid and semi-arid regions. S Afr J Sci 76:53–56
Salnicki J, Teichmann M, Wilson VJ, Murindagomo F (2001) Spotted hyaenas Crocuta crocuta prey on new-born elephant calves in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. Koedoe 44:79–83
Scholes RJ, Bond WJ, Eckhardt HC (2003) Vegetation dynamics in the Kruger ecosystem. In: du Toit JT, Rogers KH, Biggs HC (eds) The Kruger experience, ecology and management of savanna heterogeneity. Island Press, USA
Shrader AM, Ferreira SM, van Aarde RJ (2006a) Digital photogrammetry and laser rangefinder techniques to measure African elephants. S Afr J Wildl Res 36:1–7
Shrader AM, Ferreira SM, McElveen ME, Lee PC, Moss CJ, van Aarde RJ (2006b) Growth and age determination of African savanna elephants. J Zool 270:40–48
Trimble MJ, Ferreira SM, van Aarde RJ (2009) Drivers of megaherbivore demographic fluctuations: inference from elephants. J Zool 279:18–26
Van Aarde R, Jackson TP (2007) Megaparks for metapopulations: addressing the causes of locally high elephant numbers in southern Africa. Biol Conserv 134:289–297
Walker BH, Emslie RH, Owen-Smith N, Scholes RJ (1987) To cull or not to cull: lessons from a southern African drought. J Appl Ecol 24:381–401
Ward D (2008) The biology of deserts. Oxford University Press, UK
Watterson IG (2008) Components of precipitation and temperature anomalies and change associated with modes of the southern hemisphere. Int J Climat 29:809–826
Wittemyer G, Daballen D, Rasmussen H, Kahindi O, Douglas-Hamilton I (2005) Demographic status of elephant in the Samburu and Buffalo Springs national reserves, Kenya. Afr J Ecol 43:44–47
Wittemyer G, Rasmussen HB, Douglas-Hamilton I (2007) Breeding phenology in relation to NDVI variability in free-ranging African elephant. Ecography 30:42–50
Woolley L-A, Mackey RL, Page BR, Slotow R (2008) Modelling the effect of age-specific mortality on elephant Loxodonta africana populations: can natural mortality provide regulation? Oryx 42:49–57
Young K, van Aarde RJ (2010) Density as an explanatory variable of movements and calf survival in savanna elephants across southern Africa. J Anim Ecol. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01667.x
Young K, Ferreira SM, van Aarde RJ (2009) Elephant spatial use in wet and dry savannas of southern Africa. J Zool 278:189–205
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the Botswana Department of Wildlife and National Parks, Namibia Ministry of Environment and Tourism, South African National Parks and the Zambian Wildlife Authority for allowing us to conduct the research within their parks and reserves. We thank the International Fund for Animal Welfare, the Peace Parks Foundation, the United States Fish & Wildlife Services and the National Research Foundation for funding. The University of Pretoria provided the postdoctoral fellowship for A.M. Shrader.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Shrader, A.M., Pimm, S.L. & van Aarde, R.J. Elephant survival, rainfall and the confounding effects of water provision and fences. Biodivers Conserv 19, 2235–2245 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-010-9836-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-010-9836-7