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Effects of temperature and host plant fragmentation on Lymantria dispar population growth along its expanding population front

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Abstract

Lymantria dispar (L.), formerly known in the U.S.A. as the gypsy moth, has been a major pest species in North American forests for > 100 years. Due to the economic and ecological consequences of L. dispar outbreaks, many aspects of its population biology and ecology have been studied. However, as L. dispar continues to spread into new areas, it remains important to understand its invasion dynamics in newly established populations where prior research is lacking. In this study, we used a 16-year spatially-referenced dataset to quantify the spatial dynamics of L. dispar population growth rates along its expanding population front from Minnesota to North Carolina. We then used this information in a spatially-explicit modeling framework to quantify the role of temperatures, primary and secondary L. dispar host plant density, and the fragmentation of primary and secondary host plants, on L. dispar population growth rates. Across the invasion front, temperatures were significant predictors of growth rates. The basal area of host plants, often used to predict L. dispar risk, was not a significant predictor in any region along the invasion front. Instead, primary and secondary host plant cohesion (i.e., reduced fragmentation), were significant predictors of growth rates, with the exception of areas where host plants are generally scarce. The results highlight geographical differences in how temperature and host plant fragmentation affect L. dispar growth rates, and underscore the role that secondary host plants can play in establishing populations. The results inform the development of improved risk models of L. dispar invasion.

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Data available through ResearchWorks at the University of Washington.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to Drs. L. Monika Moscal and Jonathan Bakker (University of Washington) for reviewing an earlier draft of this manuscript. We would like to acknowledge financial support from USDA Farm Bill Section 10007 (Cooperator Agreement No. A112430 to PCT), the National Science Foundation (DEB-1556111 to PCT), and the University of Washington. This research was conducted by RM in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the M.S. degree from the University of Washington.

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  1. School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    Riley Metz & Patrick C. Tobin

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  1. Riley Metz
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  2. Patrick C. Tobin
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RM: Conceptualization, Investigation, Analysis, Writing; PCT: Conceptualization, Analysis, Funding acquisition, Project administration, Writing.

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Correspondence to Patrick C. Tobin.

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Metz, R., Tobin, P.C. Effects of temperature and host plant fragmentation on Lymantria dispar population growth along its expanding population front. Biol Invasions 24, 2679–2691 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-022-02804-8

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