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Pest species distribution modelling: origins and lessons from history

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Abstract

Pest species distribution modelling was designed to extrapolate risks in the biosecurity sector in order to protect agricultural crops against the spread of both endemic and introduced pest species. The need to identify sources of biological control agents for importation added to this demand. Independently, biogeographers mapped species distributions to interpolate their niche requirements. Recently the threat of climate change caused an explosion in demand for guidance on likely shifts in potential distributions of species. The different technology platforms in the two sectors resulted in divergence in their approaches to mapping actual and potential species distributions under rapidly changing environmental scenarios. Much of the contemporary discussion of species mapping ignores the lessons from the history of pest species distribution modelling. This has major implications for modelling of the non-equilibrium distributions of all species that occur with rapid climate change. The current review is intended to remind researchers of historical findings and their significance for current mapping of all species. I argue that the dream of automating species mapping for multiple species is an illusion. More modest goals and use of other approaches are necessary to protect biodiversity under current and future climates. Pest risk mapping tools have greater prospects of success because they are generic in nature and so able to be used both to interpolate and to extrapolate from field observations of any species based on climatic variables. In addition invasive species are less numerous and usually better understood, while the risk assessments are applied on regional scales in which climate is the dominant variable.

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Acknowledgments

My thanks to Dr Darren Kriticos and CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems for facilitating my participation in the International Pest Mapping Workshop in Port Douglas in August 2010. Prof Myron Zalucki and Prof Janet Franklin made helpful comments on the draft manuscript. The Ecology Centre at the University of Queensland kindly provided research facilities to enable me to conduct the review.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. The Ecology Centre, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, QLD, 4072, Australia

    Robert W. Sutherst

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  1. Robert W. Sutherst
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Correspondence to Robert W. Sutherst.

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This paper is dedicated to the memory of William Cook and Thomas Park who contributed so much to the early development of sound species mapping.

Robert W. Sutherst: Deceased.

Vale Robert W. (Bob) Sutherst (1943–2013).

Very sadly, Bob Sutherst passed away just as this paper was accepted for publication. Bob was an applied ecologist who made a substantial and impressive contribution to invasion biology. His early work on the complicated distribution, abundance, epidemiology and control of ungulate ticks and subsequent work on biting flies laid a solid foundation to underpin the development of CLIMEX and DYMEX. The development of these generic computer-based ecological modelling tools reflected Bob’s passionate desire to share knowledge. These tools were built on a foundation of rich sets of detailed studies of the distribution and seasonal abundance of invasive species, and a rare appreciation of how ecosystems work at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. These tools are one of his enduring legacies. Bob was quick to appreciate the challenges posed by climate change, and used modelling tools to demonstrate how they could support the development of appropriate climate adaptive measures for managing pests and diseases.

Bob was a much-loved and inspirational scientific leader and colleague who challenged those he encountered to be good people, great scientists, and where appropriate to take the path less trodden. Always one to stand by his convictions, he contributed to important, robust debates in the literature, particularly regarding species niche modelling methods. His latest contribution is presented here. We should be ever thankful to this courageous, clever, insightful, warm-hearted, humorous gentleman, scientist and friend. We send our sincere condolences to his wife Anna, his daughter Helen and his son Michael.

Darren J. Kriticos, Tania Yonow and Gunter F. Maywald.

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Sutherst, R.W. Pest species distribution modelling: origins and lessons from history. Biol Invasions 16, 239–256 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-013-0523-y

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