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Using dendrochronology to model hemlock woolly adelgid effects on eastern hemlock growth and vulnerability

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Abstract

This study examined the relationship between eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.) crown condition and changes in radial growth associated with infestation by hemlock woolly adelgid Adelges tsugae (Homoptera: Adelgidae) (HWA). Tree-ring chronologies of eastern hemlock were used to develop a binomial decline index based on three consecutive years of below average growth. Radial growth decline was modeled, using logistic regression, as a function of an extensive array of tree, crown, and site variables that were collected over an 11 year period in Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area. Some site-related variables such as site-location and aspect were significantly related to decline probabilities when considered individually. However, the total proportion of response variance accounted for was low, and the only site variable included in the final model was mean plot-level HWA infestation level. For every 1% increase in mean percent HWA infestation per plot, there was an 8% increase in the likelihood that a tree would be classified as being in decline. Tree crown variables such as live crown ratio, crown density, and the modified ZBadj index, a combination of foliage transparency and branch dieback, had the most explanatory power, both individually and in the final model. These crown variables were relatively accurate predictors of the degree of hemlock growth decline during HWA infestation.

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Acknowledgements

This project was funded by the USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Hamden, CT, Award No. 05-JV-11242328-102. Data for the analysis is the result of an ongoing study and collaboration between the USDA Forest Service Northeastern Area and Northern Research Station, Morgantown, WV, Field Offices, and the USDI National Park Service, Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area. Desta Fekedulegn provided invaluable assistance with statistical analysis. Field data collection and technical assistance were provided by Dave Feicht, Karen Felton, John Juracko, Matt Seese, Jeff Shreiner, and Brian Simpson.

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  1. Division of Forestry and Natural Resources, West Virginia University, P.O. Box 6125, Morgantown, WV, 26506-6125, USA

    James Rentch

  2. Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 180 Canfield St., Morgantown, WV, 26505, USA

    Mary Ann Fajvan

  3. Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area, National Park Service, 294 Old Milford Rd., Milford, PA, 18337, USA

    Richard A. Evans

  4. USDA Forest Service State & Private Forestry, Northeastern Area, 180 Canfield Street, Morgantown, WV, 26505, USA

    Brad Onken

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  1. James Rentch
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Correspondence to Mary Ann Fajvan.

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Rentch, J., Fajvan, M.A., Evans, R.A. et al. Using dendrochronology to model hemlock woolly adelgid effects on eastern hemlock growth and vulnerability. Biol Invasions 11, 551–563 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-008-9270-x

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