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A rigorous probabilistic seismic hazard model for Southeast China: a case study of Hong Kong

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Abstract

While the Southeast China region is situated in an intraplate area of low to moderate seismicity, it has experienced several noticeable earthquakes including the 1918 Shantou Earthquake having a magnitude of 7.3. This paper describes a rigorous probabilistic seismic hazard model for Southeast China using Hong Kong as a case study. Due to the scarcity of instrumental records of strong motion earthquakes, there are no appropriate ground motion predictive equations that can be derived from observed data. A number of the recently developed stochastic simulations of the seismological models have been appraised to quantify the seismic hazard as accurately as possible in order that future structures can be appropriately designed. As part of performing the hazard assessment, a detailed catalogue of historical and recent earthquakes within the Southeast China region has been compiled with data updated to 2009. A new seismic source model has also been developed based on consideration of observed seismicity, geological and tectonic information, and the source zone boundaries that were used to produce seismic hazard maps in the current Chinese code for seismic design of buildings, GB50011 (2010). The effect of the size of the seismic source zone is discussed. The results of the study include uniform seismic hazard spectra at the location of Hong Kong city and hazard maps for the surrounding part of Southeast China.

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Acknowledgments

The authors express a gratitude to Dr Tim Mote from Arup for his time to comment on this paper. This paper is published with the permission of the Head of Geotechnical Engineering Office and the Director of Civil Engineering and Development, Hong Kong SAR Government.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Arup, Level 5, Festival Walk, 80 Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon Tong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China

    J. W. Pappin & M. M. L. So

  2. Geotechnical Engineering Office, Civil Engineering and Development Department, 12/F, Civil Engineering and Development Building, 101 Princess Margaret Road, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China

    R. C. H. Koo, J. S. H. Kwan, Y. K. Shiu, K. K. S. Ho & W. K. Pun

  3. Earthquake Administration of Guangdong Province, No. 81, Xiangliezhong Road, Guangzhou, 510070, China

    H. Jiang & Y. B. Yu

Authors
  1. J. W. Pappin
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  2. R. C. H. Koo
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  3. H. Jiang
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  4. J. S. H. Kwan
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  5. Y. B. Yu
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  6. M. M. L. So
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  7. Y. K. Shiu
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  8. K. K. S. Ho
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  9. W. K. Pun
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Correspondence to R. C. H. Koo.

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Pappin, J.W., Koo, R.C.H., Jiang, H. et al. A rigorous probabilistic seismic hazard model for Southeast China: a case study of Hong Kong. Bull Earthquake Eng 13, 3597–3623 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9798-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9798-y

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