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Population ageing in Sweden: the effect of change in educational composition on the future number of older people suffering severe ill-health

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Abstract

We investigate how expected changes in the educational level composition of the older population may affect future prevalence of severe ill-health among older people in Sweden. Previous research has indicated that the number of older people, given educational differentials in mortality and expected changes in educational composition during the next decades, may increase more than expected following official population projections in Sweden. Eight alternative scenario projections for the possible development in the number of people with severe ill-health in Sweden between 2000 and 2035 are presented. Scenario projections, where both morbidity and mortality inequalities by educational level are taken into account, are compared with scenarios in which only age and gender are modelled. The projections are made with both constant and decreasing mortality. The calculations show that the expected increases in severe ill-health as a result from the ageing of the population in the period 2000–2035 might, to a large extent, be counteracted by the increase in the educational level of the Swedish population. We recommend therefore that in projections of the prevalence of ill-health, in addition to the ageing of the population, also changes in educational level should be taken into account.

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Notes

  1. In this article we use the term human resources planning for both health care and social care for the older people. Other terms, related to the issue of human resources for health care and social care for the older people, used in the literature are workforce planning and manpower planning.

  2. Special survey extensions in order to cover all older people, including those 85 years and older, have been made in 1988/1989 and 2002/2003. From the year 2004 the upper age limit has been abolished.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Aging Research Center, Karolinska Institute and Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

    Ilija Batljan & Mats Thorslund

  2. Stockholm Gerontology Research Center, Stockholm, Sweden

    Mårten Lagergren & Mats Thorslund

  3. Municipality of Nynäshamn, 149 81, Nynäshamn, Sweden

    Ilija Batljan

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  1. Ilija Batljan
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  2. Mårten Lagergren
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  3. Mats Thorslund
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Correspondence to Ilija Batljan.

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Batljan, I., Lagergren, M. & Thorslund, M. Population ageing in Sweden: the effect of change in educational composition on the future number of older people suffering severe ill-health. Eur J Ageing 6, 201–211 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10433-009-0120-1

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