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How does silviculture affect storm damage in forests of south-western Germany? Results from empirical modeling based on long-term observations

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Abstract

Storms represent the most important disturbance factor in forests of Central Europe. Using data from long-term growth and yield experiments in Baden-Wuerttemberg (south-western Germany), which permit separation of storm damage from other causes of mortality for individual trees, we investigated the influence of soil, site, forest stand, and tree parameters on storm damage, especially focusing on the influence of silvicultural interventions. For this purpose, a four-step modeling approach was applied in order to extract the main risk factors for (1) the general stand-level occurrence of storm damage, (2) the occurrence of total stand damage, and (3) partial storm damage within stands. The estimated stand-level probability of storm damage obtained in step 3 was then offset in order to describe the damage potential for the individual trees within each partially damaged stand (4). Generalized linear mixed models were applied. Our results indicate that tree species and stand height are the most important storm risk factors, also for characterizing the long-term storm risk. Additionally, data on past timber removals and selective thinnings appear more important for explaining storm damage predisposition than for example stand density, soil and site conditions or topographic variables. When quantified with a weighting method (summarizing the relative weight of single predictors or groups of predictors), removals could explain up to 20% of storm risk. The stepwise modeling approach proved an important methodological feature of the analysis, since it enabled consideration of the large number of observations without damage (“zero inflation”) in a statistically correct way. These results form a reliable basis for quantifying forest management’s direct impact on the risk of storm damage.

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Acknowledgments

This study was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research under funding code 0330622. The authors are responsible for the contents of this publication. The authors would like to thank Dr. Edgar Kublin for statistical consulting and Ms. Robin Hillestad for language reviewing of this publication. Two anonymous reviewers helped improving this manuscript by giving helpful comments and constructive suggestions.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Forest Research Institute Baden-Württemberg, Wonnhaldestr. 4, 79100, Freiburg, Germany

    Axel Albrecht, Marc Hanewinkel & Ulrich Kohnle

  2. Institute of Silviculture, University of Freiburg, Tennenbacherstr. 4, 79085, Freiburg, Germany

    Jürgen Bauhus

Authors
  1. Axel Albrecht
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  2. Marc Hanewinkel
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  3. Jürgen Bauhus
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  4. Ulrich Kohnle
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Correspondence to Axel Albrecht.

Additional information

Communicated by H. Mayer.

This article belongs to the special issue ‘Wind Effects on Trees’.

Appendix

Appendix

See Table 6.

Table 6 List of all tested predictor variables, their coding and summary statistics
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Albrecht, A., Hanewinkel, M., Bauhus, J. et al. How does silviculture affect storm damage in forests of south-western Germany? Results from empirical modeling based on long-term observations. Eur J Forest Res 131, 229–247 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-010-0432-x

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