Atmospheric trajectories and spring bird migration across the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

We examined the relationship between the longitude of peak arrival of trans-Gulf migrants on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico in spring and wind trajectories over the Gulf at three different altitudes (500, 1,500, and 2,500 m above ground level). We used data from 10 WSR-88D radars (weather surveillance radar-1988-Doppler) from Brownsville, Texas, to Key West, Florida, to record the time and longitude of peak arrival on the northern Gulf coast for four spring migrations (2001–2004). We used the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory HYSPLIT transport and dispersion model at the READY Web site to generate backward, 24-h atmospheric trajectories based on archived atmospheric data for each trans-Gulf flight. The trajectories began at the geographic location where radar indicated the greatest concentrations of arriving migrants. Although the longitude of peak arrival varied, peak densities of most trans-Gulf migrants arrived on the northern coast near longitude 95°W. Regression analyses showed that the relationship between the longitude of peak trans-Gulf arrival and the direction of atmospheric trajectory was significant but weak at the 500-m level, where few migrants occurred, and was insignificant for the 1,500- and 2,500-m altitudes, where migrant densities were greater. We conclude that winds aloft over the Gulf have little influence on the longitude of peak trans-Gulf arrival on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, and we speculate that the arrival pattern may reflect the trans-Gulf migration pathways that evolved during the Last Glacial Maximum.