Niedrige Zinsen — gesamtwirtschaftliche Ursachen und Folgen

Zusammenfassung

Die Zentralbanken in den Industrieländern betreiben seit längerer Zeit eine sehr lockere Geldpolitik mit niedrigen nominalen Zinsen. Bei gleichzeitig niedriger Infl ationsrate sind auch die Realzinsen sehr gering. Von niedrigen Zinsen wird erwartet, dass die Investitionsschwäche überwunden, defl ationäre Entwicklungen gestoppt und das Wirtschaftswachstum angekurbelt wird. Offenbar kann aber die Geldpolitik diese Ziele nicht allein erreichen, möglicherweise setzt sie sogar falsche Anreize. Andere regulierende Maßnahmen sind erforderlich, zudem können Investitionsprogramme unterstützend wirken.

Abstract

Due to the financial crises from 2008 to 2012, unconventional monetary policy caused an environment of record low interest rates around the world. Maintaining the low interest rate policy might be reasonable for the ECB in the short run in order to fight the fragmentation of the financial market and the risk of defl ation in the Eurozone. Some authors argue that permanently low interest rates lead to wrong incentives in the financial market for debtors and creditors alike. They fear potential risks for fiscal policy and financial stability in Germany and recommend macroprudential measures beyond the Basel III framework and a beginning exit of the ECB from its unconventional monetary policy. Others warn against overburdening monetary policy. They find rather that effective financial market regulation and proper fiscal rules and institutions are required to secure financial market stability and the sustainability of public debt and that a premature exit from accommodating monetary policies would do more harm than good. They argue that monetary policy alone will not solve Europe’s problems. The differing recommendations are mainly based on differing assessments of the European business cycle.