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Importance of endogenous feedback controlling the long-term abundance of tropical mosquito species

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Population Ecology

Abstract

Mosquitoes are a major vector for tropical diseases, so understanding aspects that modify their population dynamics is vital for their control and protecting human health. Maximising the efficiency of control strategies for reducing transmission risk requires as a first step the understanding of the intrinsic population dynamics of vectors. We fitted a set of density-dependent and density-independent models to the long-term time series of six tropical mosquito species from northern Australia. The models’ strength of evidence was assessed using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC c ), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and jack-knifed cross-validation (C-V). Density dependence accounted for more than 99% of the model weight in all model-selection methods, with the Gompertz-logistic (Cushing model) being the best-supported model for all mosquito species (negative density feedback expressed even at low densities). The second-most abundant species, Aedes vigilax (a saline breeder), showed no spatial heterogeneity in its density-dependent response, but the remaining five species had different intrinsic growth rates across 11 study sites. Population densities of saline species were high only during the late dry to early wet season following the highest tides of the month or early flood rains when swamps were mostly saline, whereas those of freshwater species were highest during the mid-wet and mid-dry seasons. These findings demonstrate remarkably strong density dependence in mosquito populations, but also suggest that environmental drivers, such as rainfall and tides, are important in modifying seasonal densities. Neglecting to account for strong density feedback in tropical mosquito populations will clearly result in less effective control.

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Acknowledgments

Funding for this project was provided by the Australian Research Council (LP0667619). We appreciate the support and assistance of N. Anstey, L. Bisevac, G. Boggs, D. Bowman, S. Cleland, B. Currie, S. Jacklyn, S. de Little, G. Morgan, G. Williamson and K. Mines. C.J.A.B. and B.W.B. conceived the research, and G.Y. was responsible for the analysis (with assistance from C.J.A.B. and B.W.B.). G.Y. took the lead in writing the manuscript, with equal contributions from C.J.A.B. and B.W.B. P.I.W. contributed to writing the manuscript. The data for this analysis have been provided by the Medical Entomology Branch DHCS and we thank the many staff over the years for their part in the collection of the data, and in particular to G. Hayes of MEB who arranged database access.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School for Environmental Research, Institute of Advanced Studies, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT, 0909, Australia

    Guo-Jing Yang & Corey J. A. Bradshaw

  2. Medical Entomology Branch, Communicable Diseases Program, Northern Territory Government Department of Health and Community Services, P.O. Box 40596, Casuarina, NT, 0811, Australia

    Peter I. Whelan

  3. Research Institute for Climate Change and Sustainability, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, 5005, Australia

    Corey J. A. Bradshaw & Barry W. Brook

  4. Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Meiyuan, Yangxiang 117#, Wuxi, 214064, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China

    Guo-Jing Yang

  5. South Australian Research and Development Institute, P.O. Box 120, Henley Beach, SA, 5022, Australia

    Corey J. A. Bradshaw

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  1. Guo-Jing Yang
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Correspondence to Guo-Jing Yang.

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Yang, GJ., Bradshaw, C.J.A., Whelan, P.I. et al. Importance of endogenous feedback controlling the long-term abundance of tropical mosquito species. Popul Ecol 50, 293–305 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-008-0082-8

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