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Modeling temporal and spatial colony-site dynamics in a long-lived seabird

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Population Ecology

Abstract

We studied the determinants of colony site dynamics in Audouin's gull, Larus audouinii, breeding in a small archipelago of the western Mediterranean. Data on island occupation were available for a series of 25 years, since first colonization of the archipelago in 1973. Group behavior was studied in relation to the components of dispersal: permanence or abandonment (extinction) on an island previously occupied and permanence or occupation (colonization) of another island. Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) were used to identify the relative contribution of each explanatory variable to the probability of colony abandonment. Gulls showed a low probability (3%) of abandoning one of the islands (Grossa I.), especially when the colony was increasing in numbers from time t i-1 to t i . However, the probability of abandoning Grossa increased up to 31% when the colony was declining. The probability of island abandonment was very high for all other islands (range 66–99%) when the colony was declining, but much lower (range 36–82%) when it was increasing. Hence, we suggest that island abandonment by Audouin's gull is at least a two-step process. The first step (dispersal of a portion of the colony) probably takes place at random, as an evolutionary load typical of a species evolved in unstable habitats. The second step, a further loss of breeding pairs, seems to feedback on the first loss of members of the colony (public information), likely perceived as a loss of colony quality. Colonization of islands by gulls abandoning Grossa I. was marginally and negatively affected by the density of breeding yellow-legged gulls, a predatory species. Results apply to conservation ecology since they highlight the need to protect not only occupied patches but also those empty at present.

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Acknowledgements

This study is contribution no. 10 to the LIFE-NATURE program BA 3200/98/447 "Conservation of island Special Protection Areas in the Valencian Region" financed by the Generalitat Valenciana and the European Union. We thank all the wardens from the Columbretes Nature Reserve for their anonymous work and Juan Jiménez for his support over all these years. R. Ricklefs, E. Cam, J.A. Donázar, D. Serrano, T. Sota and two anonymous referees critically read drafts of the manuscript. M.G. Forero was financed by a contract of the Program Ramón y Cajal of the Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología of Spain.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avançats (CSIC-UIB), Miquel Marquès 21, 07190, Esporles, Majorca, Spain

    Alejandro Martínez-Abraín, Daniel Oro & Manuela G. Forero

  2. CPEMN, Conselleria de Medi Ambient, Valencia, Spain

    Alejandro Martínez-Abraín

  3. Department d'Estadística i Investigació Operativa, Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain

    David Conesa

Authors
  1. Alejandro Martínez-Abraín
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  2. Daniel Oro
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  3. Manuela G. Forero
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  4. David Conesa
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Alejandro Martínez-Abraín.

Appendix

Appendix

Values for a number of variables used for analyzing patch extinction and colonization of Audouin's gull at the Columbretes archipelago. The area, vegetation cover and protection against human disturbances are shown for each patch (i.e. island or colony). For each year and patch, number of breeding pairs is shown during the period 1973–2002 and its breeding success (when available, as mean number of fledglings per pair) in brackets. Data for 1976, 1979, 1980, 1981 and 1982 were not available. AG Total number of Audouin's and YLG yellow-legged gulls (in number of pairs) in the archipelago (NA not available).

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Martínez-Abraín, A., Oro, D., Forero, M.G. et al. Modeling temporal and spatial colony-site dynamics in a long-lived seabird. Popul Ecol 45, 133–139 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-003-0150-z

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