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A framework for understanding climate change impacts on coral reef social–ecological systems

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Abstract

Corals and coral-associated species are highly vulnerable to the emerging effects of global climate change. The widespread degradation of coral reefs, which will be accelerated by climate change, jeopardizes the goods and services that tropical nations derive from reef ecosystems. However, climate change impacts to reef social–ecological systems can also be bi-directional. For example, some climate impacts, such as storms and sea level rise, can directly impact societies, with repercussions for how they interact with the environment. This study identifies the multiple impact pathways within coral reef social–ecological systems arising from four key climatic drivers: increased sea surface temperature, severe tropical storms, sea level rise and ocean acidification. We develop a novel framework for investigating climate change impacts in social–ecological systems, which helps to highlight the diverse impacts that must be considered in order to develop a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change, as well as developing appropriate management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on coral reef and people.

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Acknowledgments

This work was funded by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, as part of an early career researcher development workshop.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia

    Joshua Eli Cinner, Morgan Stuart Pratchett, Nicholas Anthony James Graham, Vanessa Messmer, Mariana Menezes Prata Bezerra Fuentes, Tracy Ainsworth, Natalie Ban, Line Kolind Bay, Jessica Blythe, Delphine Dissard, Louisa Evans, Michael Fabinyi, Pedro Fidelman, Joana Figueiredo, Ashley John Frisch, Christina Chemtai Hicks, Vimoksalehi Lukoschek, Aurelie Moya, Lucie Penin, Jodie Lynn Rummer, Stefan Walker & David Hall Williamson

  2. Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, 32306, USA

    Mariana Menezes Prata Bezerra Fuentes

  3. School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada

    Natalie Ban

  4. Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3, Townsville, QLD, 4810, Australia

    Line Kolind Bay

  5. WorldFish, Honiara, Solomon Islands

    Jessica Blythe

  6. IRD-Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-MNHN, LOCEAN Laboratory, IRD France-Nord, 32, Avenue Henri Varagnat, 93143, Bondy, France

    Delphine Dissard

  7. ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, QLD, 4072, Australia

    Simon Dunn

  8. School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, QLD, 4072, Australia

    Simon Dunn

  9. Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

    Louisa Evans

  10. Sustainability Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD, 4558, Australia

    Pedro Fidelman

  11. Oceanographic Center, Nova Southeastern University, 8000 N Ocean Drive, Dania Beach, FL, 33004, USA

    Joana Figueiredo

  12. ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia

    Christopher John Fulton

  13. Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Monterey, CA, 93940, USA

    Christina Chemtai Hicks

  14. ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 0200, Australia

    Jennie Mallela

  15. Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 0200, Australia

    Jennie Mallela

  16. UMR 9220 UR CNRS IRD ENTROPIE - Ecologie mariNe TROpicale des océans Pacifique et IndiEn, University of Reunion Island, Saint-Denis, France

    Lucie Penin

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  1. Joshua Eli Cinner
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  2. Morgan Stuart Pratchett
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Correspondence to Joshua Eli Cinner.

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Editor: Will Steffen.

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Cinner, J.E., Pratchett, M.S., Graham, N.A.J. et al. A framework for understanding climate change impacts on coral reef social–ecological systems. Reg Environ Change 16, 1133–1146 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0832-z

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