Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Climatic and environmental change in the Karakoram: making sense of community perceptions and adaptation strategies

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Regional Environmental Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate how mountain communities perceive and adapt to climatic and environmental change. Primary data were collected at community and household level through in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and quantitative questionnaires covering 210 households in six villages of the West Karakoram (Hundur and Darkut in the Yasin Valley; Hussainabad, Altit, Gulmit, and Shiskat in the Hunza valley of Gilgit-Baltistan). The relevance of the area with respect to our scopes is manifold. First, this is one of the most extreme and remote mountainous areas of the world, characterized by complex and fragile institutional and social fabrics. Second, this region is one of the focal points of research for the hydro-meteo-climatological scientific community, because of its relevance in terms of storage and variability of water resources for the whole Indus basin, and for the presence of conflicting signals of climate change with respect to the neighboring regions. Third, the extreme hardships due to a changing environment, as well as to the volatility of the social and economic conditions are putting great stress on the local population. As isolating climate change as a single driver is often not possible, community perceptions of change are analyzed in the livelihood context and confronted with multi-drivers scenarios affecting the lives of mountain people. We compare the collected perceptions with the available hydro-climatological data, trying to answer some key questions such as: how are communities perceiving, coping with, and adapting to climatic and environmental change? Which are the most resorted adaptation strategies? How is their perception of change influencing the decision to undertake certain adaptive measures?

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. The study area is part of the Kashmir stalemate and is included in the Indian claims over the region. Since August 2009 the former Northern Areas of Pakistan gained self-rule and obtained a self-elected “Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly”. Yet, the province still enjoys only a non-constitutional status within the country and has a peripheral role in the country’s economic and political life, resulting in a lack of proper governance, as well as in difficulties for researchers to access data on the region, that is typically not included in official statistics.

  2. A comprehensive account of the Customary Laws of Gilgit-Baltistan can be found at: http://iucn.org/about/union/secretariat/offices/asia/asia_where_work/pakistan/pk_elaws/na_laws/na_sub_laws/).

References

  • Adger NW (1999) Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam. World Dev 27:249–269

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adger WN (2006) Vulnerability. Global Environ Change 16:268–281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Archer DR, Fowler HJ (2004) Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 8(1):47–61

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Archer DR, Forsythe N, Fowler HJ, Shah SM (2010) Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 814:1669–1680

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Banerjee S, Gerlitz YS, Hoermann B (2011) Labour migration as a response to water hazards in the Hindu-Kush-Himalayas. International center for integrated mountain development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu

  • Bansal A (2008) Gilgit-Baltistan: the roots of political alienation. Strateg Anal 32(1):81–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bengtsson L, Hodges IK, Roeckner E (2007) Storm tracks and climate change. J Clim 19:3518–3542

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bocchiola D, Diolaiuti G (2012) Recent (1980–2009) evidence of climate change in the upper Karakoram, Pakistan. Theor Appl Climatol 113:611–641

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bolch T, Kulkarni A, Kääb A, Huggel C, Paul F, Cogley JG, Frey H, Kargel JS, Fujita K, Scheel M, Bajracharya S, Stoffel M (2012) The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers. Science 336:310–314

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Campbell DJ, Olson JM (1991) Environment and development in Kenya: flying the kite in Kajiado District. Centen Rev 35:295–314

    Google Scholar 

  • Cradock-Henry NA (2002) Risk, vulnerability and environmental hazards in the village of Darkot, northern Pakistan. Paper 435. Available at: http://scholars.wlu.ca/etd/435. Last retrieved 8 Sept 2012

  • Ehlers E, Kreutzmann H (2000) High mountain pastoralism in northern Pakistan. Erdkundliches Wissen 132:9–36

    Google Scholar 

  • Ellis F (2000) Rural livelihoods and diversity in developing countries. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Fowler HJ, Archer DR (2006) Conflicting signals of climatic change in the Upper Indus Basin. J Clim 9:4276–4293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gioli G, Khan T, Scheffran J (2013) Gender and environmental migration in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. Sustainable development in South Asia: shaping the future. SDPI, Islamabad

  • Goulden MC, Adger WN, Allison EH, Conway D (2013) Limits to resilience from livelihood diversification and social capital in lake social-ecological systems. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 03(4):906–924

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hasson S, Lucarini V, Pascale S (2013a) Hydrological cycle over South Asian rivers as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments. Earth Syst Dyn Discuss 4:109–177

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hasson S, Lucarini V, Khan MR, Petitta M, Bolch T, Gioli G (2013b) Early XXI Century climatology of snow cover for the Western River Basins of the Indus river system. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 10:13145–13190

  • Herbers H (1998) Work and nutrition in High Asia. Theoretical framework, methods and main results of a comprehensive study on the production-reproduction-system in northern Pakistan. EBHR 14:18–30

    Google Scholar 

  • Immerzeel WW, van Beek LPH, Bierkens MFP (2010) Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Science 328:1382–1385

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007)  Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE  (eds) Climate change: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

  • Khan K (2012) Tourism downfall: sectarianism an apparent major cause in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). Pak J Polit Stud 19(2):155–168

    Google Scholar 

  • Khattak MS, Babel MS, Sharif M (2011) Hydrometeorological trends in the upper Indus River Basin in Pakistan. Clim Res 46:103–119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kollmair M, Gamper S (2002) The sustainable livelihood approach: training input. Development Study Group Zurich (DSGZ), Zurich, Switzerland

    Google Scholar 

  • Kreutzmann H (1998) Oases of the Karakorum. Evolution of irrigation and social organization in Hunza, North Pakistan. In: Allan NJR, Knapp GW, Stadel C (eds) Human impact on mountains. Rowman and Littlefield, Totowa, pp 243–254

    Google Scholar 

  • Kreutzmann H (ed) (2000) Sharing water. Irrigation and water management in the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya. Oxford University Press, Karachi

    Google Scholar 

  • Kreutzmann H (2011) Scarcity within opulence: water management in the Karakorum Mountain revisited. J Mt Sci 8:525–534

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laghari AN, Vanham D, Rauch V (2011) The Indus basin in the framework of current and future water resources management. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 8:2263–2288

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Macchi M, Gurung A, Hoermann B, Choudhury D (2011) Climate variability and change in the Himalaya. Community perception and responses, Kathmandu: International center for integrated mountain development ICIMOD

  • Malik A, Piracha M (2006) Economic transition in Hunza and Nagar Valleys. In: Kreutzmann H (ed) Karakoram in transition. Culture, development and ecology in the Hunza Valley. Oxford, New York, Karachi, pp 359–369

    Google Scholar 

  • Mertz O, Mbow C, Reenberg A, Diouf A (2009) Farmers’ perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel. Environ Manag 43:804–816

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meze-Hausken E (2008) On the (im-) possibilities of defining human climate thresholds. Clim Chang 89:299–324

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raup BH, Kieffer HH, Hare TM, Kargel JS (2000) Generation of data acquisition requests for the ASTER satellite instrument for monitoring a globally distributed target: glaciers. Geosci Remote 3:1105–1112

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rees HG, Collins DN (2006) Regional differences in response of flow in glacier-fed Himalayan Rivers to climatic warming. Hydr Process 20:2157–2169

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roncoli C, Ingram K, Kirshen P (2002) Reading the rains: local knowledge and rainfall forecasting among farmers of Burkina Faso. Soc Nat Resour 15:411–430

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scherler D, Bookhagen B, Strecker MR (2011) Spatially variable response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change affected by debris cover. Nat Geosci 4:156–159

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Schickhoff U (2006) The forests of Hunza Valley: scarce resources under threat. In: Kreutzmann H (ed) Karakoram in transition. Culture, development and ecology in the Hunza Valley. Oxford, New York, Karachi, pp 123–144

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider J-F, Gruber F, Mergili M (2011) Recent cases and geomorphic evidence of landslide-dammed lakes and related hazards in the mountains of Central Asia. In: Proceedings of the second world landslide forum

  • Sharif M, Archer DR, Fowler HJ, Forsythe N (2013) Trends in timing and magnitude of flow in the Upper Indus Basin. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17:1503–1516

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silvestri S, Bryan E, Ringler C, Herrero M, Okoba B (2012) Climate change perception and adaptation of agro-pastoral communities in Kenya. Reg Environ Change 12:791–802

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smit B, Wandel J (2006) Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Glob Environ Change 16:282–292

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smit B, Burton I, Klein RJT, Street R (1999) The science of adaptation: a framework for assessment. Mitig Adapt Strat Gl 4:199–213

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stöber G (2000) Irrigation practice in Yasin, Northern Areas of Pakistan. In: Kreutzmann H (ed) Sharing water, irrigation and water management in the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya. Oxford University Press, New York, pp 73–89

    Google Scholar 

  • Tacoli C (2009) Crisis or adaptation? Migration and climate change in context of high mobility. Environ Urban 21:1–13

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tambo JA, Abdoulaye T (2013) Smallholder farmers’ perceptions of and adaptations to climate change in the Nigerian savanna. Reg Environ Change 13:375–388

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas DSG, Twyman C (2005) Good or bad rangeland? Hybrid knowledge, science, and local understandings of vegetation dynamics in the Kalahari. Land Degrad Dev 15:215–231

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas DSG, Twyman C, Osbahr H, Hewitson B (2007) Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa. Clim Change 83:301–322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tschakert P (2007) Views from the vulnerable: perceptions on climatic and other stressors in the Sahel. Glob Environ Change 17:381–396

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vogel C, O’Brien K (2006) Who can eat information? Examining the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecasts and regional climate risk management strategies. Clim Res 33:111–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Warner K, van der Geest K, Kreft S, Huq S, Harmeling S, Koen K, de Sherbinin A (2012) Evidence from the frontlines of climate change: loss and damage to communities despite coping and adaptation. Loss and damage in vulnerable countries initiative. Policy report 9. United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn

  • World Bank (2006) Migration and inequality. World development report 2006 background paper. The World Bank, Washington

  • Yang D, Choi H (2007) Are remittances insurance? World Bank Econ Rev 21(2):219–248

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to the organizers of the “First International Conference on Politics of Water Resource Governance in The Indus Basin” (Lahore 9-10 January 2013) for the kind invitation to present this work, and to Dr. Ghulam Rasul of the Pakistan Meteorological Department for his feedback and support. GG and JS acknowledge the support given by the Cluster of Excellence “Integrated Climate System Analysis and Prediction” (Clisap) of the University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany to the GEM project.  The GEM project has been jointly conducted by the Research Group “Climate Change and Security, CLISEC” of the University of Hamburg, and the Sustainable Development Policy Institute  (SDPI), Islamabad,  Pakistan. This article contains some results included in the background paper commissioned by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) under the Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Program (HICAP), which is implemented jointly by ICIMOD, CICERO and UNEP/GRID-Arendal and is supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Norway and Swedish International Development Agency (Sida).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), Institute of Geography, KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

    Giovanna Gioli & Jürgen Scheffran

  2. Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad, Pakistan

    Giovanna Gioli & Talimand Khan

Authors
  1. Giovanna Gioli
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Talimand Khan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jürgen Scheffran
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Giovanna Gioli.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Gioli, G., Khan, T. & Scheffran, J. Climatic and environmental change in the Karakoram: making sense of community perceptions and adaptation strategies. Reg Environ Change 14, 1151–1162 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0550-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0550-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation