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Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance

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Abstract

In this paper, we develop a multiregion epidemic model in order to provide the basic information on local HIV epidemic states in Japan. By considering the previous efforts of national epidemic projections in Japan, we statistically calibrate a model by employing an estimation method that allows the inclusion of geographically varying parameters. Using this model, we present a geographical projection of local epidemics until 2015 by examining geographical variations in future epidemic growth and spatial relationships in HIV transmission. We also discuss the implications of planning preventive measures and improvement in the Japanese HIV/AIDS surveillance system based on analytical results.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to express our appreciation to Dr. Takao Matsumoto, Tokyo Rinkai Hospital and Prof. Masaki Nagai, Department of Public Health, Saitama Medical School for their kind permission to refer to their clinical database of HIV/AIDS cases/patients on hospitals in Tokyo. This paper is supported by Grant-in-Aid for Encouragement of Young Scientists of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (No. 15700549).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Ritsumeikan University, 56-1 Toji-in Kitamachi, Kita-ku, Kyoto, 603-8577, Japan

    Tomoki Nakaya

  2. Health Centre, Okayama City Hall, Okayama, Japan

    Katsumi Nakase

  3. Infectious Disease Surveillance Centre, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan

    Ken Osaka

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  1. Tomoki Nakaya
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  2. Katsumi Nakase
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  3. Ken Osaka
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Correspondence to Tomoki Nakaya.

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Nakaya, T., Nakase, K. & Osaka, K. Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance. J Geograph Syst 7, 313–336 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-005-0008-3

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