A system dynamics-based decision-making tool and strategy optimization simulation of green building development in China

Abstract

Green building has emerged as a new type of building to mitigate the conflict between the rapid expansion of buildings and the deteriorating ecological environment, thus promoting ecologically sustainable development of building projects. However, the development of green building suffers from issues such as high initial costs and complicated process. In this study, a system dynamics (SD) approach has been used to investigate green building development (GBD) in China. The validity of the GBD-SD model has been verified and further applied to simulate GBD in the city of Wuhan. Three problems in current GBD system of Wuhan have been identified based on analysis of simulated results: (1) slow-paced GBD; (2) imbalanced green building supply and demand; and (3) low overall green level. Furthermore, three strategies have been proposed accordingly to solve those three problems. This study provides a GBD-SD model to comprehensively understand the dynamic relationships between participants in a GBD system and may shed light on sustainable development of green buildings for policy-makers.

Appendices

Appendix 1: model factors (variables) description

The structure of GBD-SD model is shown in Fig. 3. It can be used to quantitatively describe the complex dynamic relationships between the major factors (variables) in a GBD system. Description of model factors is detailed as follows:

Abbreviation	Factors name	Units
MLGT	Maturity level of green technology	Dmnl
AMLIGT	Annual maturity level increment of green technology	Dmnl
ITAGB-AMLIGT-LU	The impact of total area of green buildings in this region on annual maturity level increment of green technology LOOKUP	Dmnl
TAGB	Total area of green buildings in this region	Million sqm
PIIPUAGB	Proportion of incremental investment in per unit area of green building	Dmnl
IMLGT-PIIPUAGB-LU	The impact of maturity level of green technology on proportion of incremental investment in per unit area of green building LOOKUP	Dmnl
AIDWGBD	Annual increment of developers’ willingness for green building development	Dmnl
DWGBD	Developers’ willingness for green building development	Dmnl
IDGB-AIDWGBD-LU	The impact of demands for green building on annual increment of developers’ willingness for green building development LOOKUP	Dmnl
IPIIPUAGB-AIDWGBD-LU	The impact of proportion of incremental investment in per unit area of green building on annual increment of developers’ willingness for green building development LOOKUP	Dmnl
IGIPGBI	Intensity of governmental incentive policies on green building investment	Dmnl
IIGIPGBI-AIDWGBD-LU	The impact of intensity of governmental incentive policies on green building investment on annual increment of developers’ willingness for green building development LOOKUP	Dmnl
IVRGB-AIDWGBD-LU	The impact of vacancy rate of green building on annual increment of developers’ willingness for green building development LOOKUP	Dmnl
ICIGBD-AIDWGBD-LU	The impact of credibility increment of green building developers on annual increment of developers’ willingness for green building development LOOKUP	Dmnl
VRGB	Vacancy rate of green building	Dmnl
CIGBD	Credibility increment of green building developers	Dmnl
IMLRGBDP-AIDWGBD-LU	The impact of mandatory level of regional green building development policies on annual increment of developers’ willingness for green building development LOOKUP	Dmnl
MLRGBDP	Mandatory level of regional green building development policies	Dmnl
GTA	Green technology appropriateness	Dmnl
GL	Green level	Dmnl
DGB	Demands for green building	Million sqm
CDGB	Consumers’ desires for green buildings	Dmnl
AICD	Annual increment of consumers’ desires	Dmnl
PROCPUAGB	Proportion of reduced operation cost for per unit area of green building	Dmnl
GIL	Green implementation level	Dmnl
IPROCPUAGB-AICD-LU	The impact of proportion of reduced operation cost for per unit area of green building on annual increment of consumers’ desires LOOKUP	Dmnl
RPCG	Regional per capita GDP	Billion yuan
IRPCG-AICD-LU	The impact of regional per capita GDP on annual increment of consumers’ desires LOOKUP	Dmnl
ICCLTGB-AICD-LU	The impact of consumers’ cognition level toward green building on annual increment of consumers’ desires LOOKUP	Dmnl
RLQ	Resident life quality	Dmnl
PPGB	Public praises for green building (comfort level)	Dmnl
CCLTGB	Consumers’ cognition level toward green building	Dmnl
PLGB	Propaganda level of green building	Dmnl
EAPC	Expected area per capita	Sqm/person
AIPCA	Annual increment of per capita area	Sqm/person.year
TRBD	Total regional building demands	Million sqm
RPS	Regional population sizes	Million person
AIRPCA	Annual increase rate of per capita area	Sqm/person
AINBAGB	Annual increment of the newly built-up area of green buildings	Million sqm/year
INGB-LU	Increment of new green building LOOKUP	Million sqm
DLGBDS	Development level of the GBD system	Dmnl
ITAGB-DLGBDS-LU	The impact of total area of green buildings in this region on development level of the GBD system LOOKUP	Dmnl

Appendix 2: Mathematical equations containing initial values and units of the GBD-SD model

$${\text{EAPC}} = {\text{INTEG}}\left( {{\text{AIPCA}},32} \right),\;{\text{Units: Sqm/person}}$$

(1)

$${\text{AIPCA}} = {\text{EAPC}}*{\text{AIRPCA,}}\;{\text{Units: Sqm/person}} \cdot {\text{year}}$$

(2)

$${\text{AIRPCA}} = 0.01,\;{\text{Units: Sqm/person}}$$

(3)

$${\text{RPS}} = {\text{INTEG}}\left( {{\text{Natural}}\;{\text{annual}}\;{\text{increment}}\;{\text{of}}\;{\text{population}} + {\text{Annual}}\;{\text{net}}\;{\text{migration}}\;{\text{of}}\;{\text{population,}}833.24} \right),\;{\text{Units: Million person}}$$

(4)

$${\text{RPCG}} = {\text{RegionalGDP /RPS,}}\;{\text{Units: Billion yuan}}$$

(5)

$${\text{IMLRGBDP-AIDWGBD-LU}} = \left( {\left[ {\left( {0,0} \right) - \left( {1,0.08} \right)} \right],\left( {1.8e - 005,0.01} \right),\left( {0.1,0.03} \right),\left( {0.5,0.08} \right),\left( {1,0.08} \right)} \right),\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(6)

$${\text{TAGB}} = {\text{INTEG}}\left( {{\text{AINBAGB,}}28.8} \right),{\text{Units: Million sqm}}$$

(7)

$${\text{ITAGB-AMLIGT-LU}} = \left( {\left[ {\left( {28,0} \right)\left( {80000,0.05} \right)} \right],\left( {28,0.001} \right),\left( {360,0.0015} \right),\left( {20000,0.02} \right),\left( {39500,0.025} \right),\left( {50000,0.028} \right),\left( {74000,0.045} \right),\left( {80000,0.006} \right)} \right),\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(8)

$${\text{ITAGB-DLGBDS-LU}} = \left( {\left[ {\left( {28,0} \right) - \left( {80000,0.7} \right)} \right],\left( {28,0.2} \right),\left( {8744,0.5} \right),\left( {80000,0.7} \right)} \right),\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(9)

$${\text{INGB-LU}} = \left( {\left[ {\left( {2008,0} \right)\left( {2050,5000} \right)} \right],\left( {2008,0} \right),\left( {2009,32} \right),\left( {2010,109} \right),\left( {2011,180} \right),\left( {2012,210} \right),\left( {2013,339} \right),\left( {2030,4639} \right), \, \left( {2050,350} \right)} \right),\;{\text{Units: Million sqm}}$$

(10)

$${\text{PLGB}} = 0.04,\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(11)

$${\text{TRBD}} = {\text{EAPC*RPS,}}\;{\text{Units: Million sqm}}$$

(12)

$${\text{AMLIGT}} = {\text{ITAGB-AMLIGT-LU}}\left( {\text{TAGB}} \right) ,\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(13)

$${\text{IGIPGBI}} = 0. 1 ,\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(14)

$${\text{IIGIPGBI-AIDWGBD-LU}} = \left( {\left[ {\left( {0.1,0} \right)-\left( {1,0.08} \right)} \right],\left( {0.1,0.02} \right),\left( {0.6,0.07} \right),\left( {1,0.07} \right)} \right),\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(15)

$${\text{AINBAGB}} = {\text{INGB-LU}}\left( {\text{Time}} \right) + {\text{DELAY}}1(10*{\text{DWGBD,0}} . 6 ) ,\;{\text{Units: Million sqm/year}}$$

(16)

$${\text{AICD}} = {\text{IRPCG-AICD-LU}}\left( {\text{RPCG}} \right) * {\text{ICCLTGB-AICD-LU}}\left( {\text{CCLTGB}} \right) * {\text{IPROCPUAGB-AICD-LU}}\left( {\text{PROCPUAGB}} \right) ,\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(17)

$${\text{CCLTGB}} = 2. 3 9 7 * {\text{PLGB}} + 2. 7 4 3 * {\text{PPGB}} + 9. 2 5 {\text{e}}-0 0 6 * {\text{TAGB,}}\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(18)

$${\text{CDGB}} = {\text{INTEG}}\left( {{\text{AICD,0}} . 1} \right) ,\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(19)

$${\text{ICCLTGB-AICD-LU}} = \left( {\left[ {\left( { 0. 1 , 0} \right)\left( { 1 , 0. 1} \right)} \right] ,\left( { 0. 1 , 0. 0 3} \right) ,\left( { 0. 1 3 , 0. 0 2} \right) ,\left( { 0. 4 8 , 0. 0 4} \right) ,\left( { 0. 7 , 0. 0 9} \right) ,\left( { 0. 8 4 , 0. 0 9} \right) ,\left( { 0. 8 4 , 0. 0 9} \right) ,\left( { 1 , 0. 0 9} \right)} \right) ,\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(20)

$${\text{GIL}} = 0. 1 ,\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(21)

$${\text{GL}} = 0. 5 7 6 * {\text{GIL}} + 0. 2 6 3 * {\text{GTA,}}\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(22)

$${\text{PIIPUAGB}} = {\text{IMLGT-PIIPUAGB-LU}}\left( {\text{MLGT}} \right) ,\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(23)

$${\text{IPIIPUAGB-AIDWGBD-LU}} = \left( {\left[ {\left( {0,0} \right)\left( {0.09,0.08} \right)} \right],\left( {0.002,0.07} \right),\left( {0.005,0.07} \right),\left( {0.009,0.07} \right),\left( {0.01,0.07} \right),\left( {0.07,0.05} \right),\left( {0.09,0.01} \right)} \right),\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(24)

$${\text{PROCPUAGB}} = 0. 5 * {\text{GL,}}\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(25)

$${\text{IPROCPUAGB-AICD-LU}} = \left( {\left[ {\left( {0.03,0} \right)-\left( {0.14,1} \right)} \right],\left( {0.03,0.2} \right),\left( {0.04,0.35} \right),\left( {0.06,0.95} \right),\left( {0.09,0.96} \right),\left( {0.14,0.96} \right)} \right),\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(26)

$${\text{PPGB}} = 0. 0 1 * {\text{RLQ,}}\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(27)

$${\text{CIGBD}} = 0.9*GL,\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(28)

$${\text{ICIGBD-AIDWGBD-LU}} = \left( {\left[ {\left( {0,0} \right)-\left( {0.22,0.06} \right)} \right],\left( {0,0} \right),\left( {0.1,0.04} \right),\left( {0.12,0.05} \right),\left( {0.17,0.06} \right),\left( {0.22,0.06} \right)} \right),\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(29)

$${\text{DLGBDS}} = {\text{ITAGB-DLGBDS-LU}}\left( {\text{TAGB}} \right),\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(30)

$${\text{DWGBD}} = {\text{INTEG}}\left( {{\text{AIDWGBD,0}} . 1} \right) ,\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(31)

$${\text{AIDWGBD}} = {\text{IMLRGBDP-AIDWGBD-LU(MLRGBDP)}}*{\text{IIGIPGBI-AIDWGBD-LU(IGIPGBI)*IPIIPUAGB-AIDWGBD-LU(PIIPUAGB)*IVRGB-AIDWGBD-LU(VRGB)*IDGB-AIDWGBD-LU(DGB)*ICIGBD-AIDWGBD-LU(CIGBD)}}* 1 0^{ 6} ,\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(32)

$${\text{VRGB}} = 0. 1 ,\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(33)

$${\text{IVRGB-AIDWGBD-LU}} = \left( {\left[ {\left( {0, - 0.04} \right) - \left( {1,0.04} \right)} \right],\left( {0,0.02} \right),\left( {0.2,0.04} \right),\left( {0.4, - 0.02} \right),\left( {0.8, - 0.04} \right),\left( {1, - 0.04} \right)} \right),\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(34)

$${\text{DGB}} = {\text{TRBD}}*{\text{CDGB,}}\;{\text{Units: Million sqm}}$$

(35)

$${\text{IDGB-AIDWGBD-LU}} = \left( {\left[ {\left( {2666,0} \right) - \left( {8e + 007,1} \right)} \right],\left( {2666,0.1} \right),\left( {2.4e + 006,1} \right),\left( {8e + 007,0.7} \right)} \right),\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(36)

$${\text{MLGT}} = {\text{INTEG}}\left( {{\text{AMLIGT}},0.1} \right),\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(37)

$${\text{IMLGT-PIIPUAGB-LU}} = \left( {\left[ {\left( {0.1,0} \right) - \left( {1,0.1} \right)} \right],\left( {0.1,0.09} \right),\left( {0.3,0.02} \right),\left( {1,0} \right)} \right),\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(38)

$${\text{GTA}} = 0. 8*{\text{MLGT,}}\;{\text{Units: Dmnl}}$$

(39)