Abstract
The empirical relationship between electricity consumption and gross domestic product, population, the product of primary industry, second industry, and tertiary industry are investigated. The strong multicollinearity among EC’s affecting factors does not meet the criteria of the ordinary least square regression (OLS) regression model. Principle component analysis is used to eliminate multicollinearity. Three principle components with no multicollinearity can explain 99.34 % of affecting factors’ variance. The three principle components seemed as independent, and EC seemed as dependent variables when OLS regression is employed. The results show that: gross domestic product, primary industrial production value, second industrial production value, and tertiary industrial production value codetermined the trend of electricity consumption, while the proportion of primary industrial production value, second industrial production value, and tertiary industrial production value and population codetermined the starting point and fluctuation of electricity consumption; the economic scale is the mainly affecting factors on electricity consumption; as some parts of electricity consumed by primary industry are not included in the state grid, there is an illusion that the primary industry can produce electricity.
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Abbreviations
- AF i :
-
The affecting factors of EC
- A (AF i ):
-
The average value of AF i
- CEC j :
-
The calculated EC in year j, its unit is TWh
- EC :
-
The electricity consumption
- EC j :
-
The EC in year j, its unit is TWh
- EC PIPV :
-
The EC which influence by PIPV, its unit is TWh
- EC PIPVP :
-
The EC which influence by PIPVP, its unit is TWh
- EC SIPV :
-
The EC which influence by SIPV, its unit is TWh
- EC SIPVP :
-
The EC which influence by SIPVP, its unit is TWh
- EC TIPV :
-
The EC which influence by TIPV, its unit is TWh
- EC TPIVP :
-
The EC which influence by TIPVP, its unit is TWh
- EC P :
-
The EC which influence by P, its unit is TWh
- EC GDP :
-
The EC which influence by GDP, its unit is TWh
- GDP :
-
Gross domestic product, its unit is billion $
- GW:
-
Giga Watt
- MBE :
-
The mean bias error
- OLS:
-
Ordinary least square regression
- P :
-
Population, its unit is million people
- PC k :
-
The kth principal component
- PIPV :
-
Primary industrial production value, the primary industry includes farming, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and water conservancy. Its unit is billion $
- PIPVP :
-
Primary industrial production value proportion, its unit is %
- REC j :
-
The reality EC in year j
- RMBE :
-
The root mean square error
- SAF i :
-
The standardization of AF i , which is used for principal component analysis
- SD (AF i ):
-
The standard deviation of AF i
- SIPV :
-
Second industrial production value, second industry includes mining, manufacturing, electric power, gas and water, and construction. Its unit is billion $
- SIPVP :
-
Second industrial production value proportion, its unit is %
- SEC :
-
The standardization of EC
- TIPV :
-
Tertiary industrial production value, tertiary industry includes transportation, storage, post and telecommunication services, wholesale, retail trade and catering services, residential consumption, and others. Its unit is billion $
- TIPVP :
-
Tertiary industrial production value proportion, its unit is %
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Wang, Y., Zhang, Jm. & Guo, H. Decomposition of electricity consumption in China by primary component analysis. Clean Techn Environ Policy 18, 2533–2540 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-016-1225-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-016-1225-9