Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

A dynamic Bayesian network-based model for evaluating rainfall-induced landslides

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Rainfall-induced landslides are among the most widespread hazards in the world. Forecasting slope stability when rainfall events occur is an important topic in the landslide disaster field. The link between rainfall events and slope instability is uncertain, because of the variabile rainfall infiltration mechanism within a slope mass. To reduce this uncertainty, a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is utilised to analyse the stability of a slope in time domains by representing the probabilistic relationships of variables [rainfall intensity, cumulative infiltration, pore water pressure (PWP), and factor of safety] and relating these variables to each other over adjacent time steps. This model improves the accuracy of objective evaluation by coupling parts of observation value against the uncertainty. Successively, a deterministic method (DM) with empirical or tested values in models and a logistics regression (LR) method totally based on the statistical results are employed to estimate slope stability in time domains. Through comparing the temporal slope instability evaluation of the three mentioned methods with the real scenes of an artificial slope, the results demonstrate that 1) the DBN can evaluate the stability of a slope closer to reality in time domains compared to the DM; 2) The DBN estimates the instability of the slope in accordance with the LR method and can include some physical mechanisms. The characteristics of the DBN make the method a potential way to evaluate slope stability.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Acharya G, De Smedt F, Long NT (2006) Assessing landslide hazard in GIS: a case study from Rasuwa, Nepal. Bull Eng Geol Env 65(1):99–107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alvioli M, Guzzetti F, Rossi M (2014) Scaling properties of rainfall induced landslides predicted by a physically based model. Geomorphology 213(5):38–47

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ayalew L (1999) The effect of seasonal rainfall on landslides in the highlands of Ethiopia. Bull Eng Geol Env 58(1):9–19

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Biondi G, Cascone E, Maugeri M, Motta E (2000) Seismic response of saturated cohesionless slopes. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 20:209–215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bogaard TA, Greco R (2016) Landslide hydrology: from hydrology to pore pressure. WIREs Water 3:439–459

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bonnard C, Tacher L, Beniston M (2008) Prediction of landslide movements caused by climate change: Modelling the behaviour of a mean elevation large slide in the Alps and assessing its uncertainties. Proc.10th Int. Symp. on Landslides and Engineered Slopes: 217–227

  • Borga M, Fontana GD, Cazorzi F (2002) Analysis of topographic and climatic control on rainfall-triggered shallow landsliding using a quasi-dynamic wetness index. J Hydrol 268:56–71

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Casadei M, Dietrich WE, Miller NL (2003) Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil-mantled landscapes. Earth Surf Proc Land 28:925–950

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cascini L, Cuomo S, Guida D (2008) Typical source areas of May 1998 flow-like mass movements in the Campania region, southern Italy. Eng Geol 96:107–125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen YL, Uchimura T, Irfan M, Huang D, Xie JR (2017) Detection of water infiltration and deformation of unsaturated soils by elastic wave velocity. Landslides 14(5):1715–1730

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chowdhury RN, Xu DW (1993) Rational polynomial technique in slope stability analysis. Journal of Geotechnical Engineering Division, ASCE 119(12):1910–1928

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Claessens L, Knapen A, Kitutu MG, Poesen J, Deckers JA (2007) Modelling landslide hazard, soil redistribution and sediment yield of landslides on the Ugandan footslopes of mount Elgon. Geomorphology 90(1):23–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Collins BD, Znidarcic D (2004) Stability analyses of rainfall induced landslides. J Geotech Geoenviron 130(4):362–372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Corominas J, Moya J (1999) Reconstructing recent landslide activity in relation to rainfall in the Llobregat River basin, eastern Pyrenees, Spain. Geomorphology 30:79–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crosta G (1998) Regionalization of rainfall thresholds: an aid to landslide hazard evaluation. Environ Geol 35:131–145

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • D’Aniello A, Cozzolino L, Cimorelli L, Covelli C, Della Morte R, Pianese D (2014) One-dimensional simulation of debris-flow inception and propagation. Third Italian workshop on landslides. Procedia earth. Planet Sci 9:112–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeps.2014.06.005.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dai Y, Fredlund DG, Stolte WJ (1993) A probabilistic slope stability analysis using deterministic computer software. Proceedings of the Conference on Probabilistic Methods in Geotechnical Engineering, Canbera, Australia, February 10-12:267–274

    Google Scholar 

  • De Vita P, Napolitano E, Godt JW, Baum RL (2013) Deterministic estimation of hydrological thresholds for shallow landslide initiation and slope stability models: case study from the Somma-Vesuvius area of southern Italy. Landslides 10(6):713–728

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duncan JM (2000) Factors of safety and reliability in geotechnical engineering. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng ASCE 126(4):307–316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Furman A, Warrick AW, Zerihun D, Sanchez CA (2006) Modified Kostiakov infiltration function: accounting for initial and boundary conditions. J Irrig Drain Eng 132:587–596

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geo-slope International Ltd (2007) Seep/W User's guide for finite element seepage analysis. GEO-SLOPE International Ltd., Calgary, Alberta, Canada

    Google Scholar 

  • Godt JW (2004) Observed and modeled rainfall conditions for shallow landsliding in the Seattle, Washington, area. PhD thesis. University of Colorado, Boulder

  • Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2007) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe. Meteorog Atmos Phys 98:239–267

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2008) The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update. Landslides 5(1):3–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamby DM (1994) A review of techniques for parameter sensitivity analysis of environmental models. Environ Monit Assess 32(2):135–154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hapke C, Plant N (2010) Predicting coastal cliff erosion using a Bayesian probabilistic model. Mar Geol 278:140–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ismail EH, Rogers JD, Ahmed MF, Usery EL, Abdelsalam MG (2017) Landslide susceptibility mapping of blue nile and tekeze river basins using oblique rainfall-aspect rasters. Bull Eng Geol Env (online)

  • Iverson RM (2000) Landslide triggering by rain infiltration. Water Resour Res 36(7):1897–1910

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li AG, Tham LG, Yue GQ, Lee CF, Law KT (2005) Comparison of field and laboratory soil–water characteristic curves. J Geotech Geoenviron 131(9):1176–1180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lora M, Camporese M, Salandin P (2016) Design and performance of a nozzle-type rainfall simulator for landslide triggering experiments. Catena 140:77–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Michiue M (1985) A method for predicting slope failures on cliff and mountain due to heavy rain. Natural Disaster Science 7(1):1–12

    Google Scholar 

  • Montgomery DR, Dietrich WE (1994) A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding. Water Resour Res 30(4):1153–1171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murphy KP (2002) Dynamic Bayesian networks: representation, inference and learning. PhD thesis. University of California, Berkeley

    Google Scholar 

  • Ohtsu H, Ohnish Y, Takahashi K (2003) A study on the slope risk evaluation due to rainfall using the simplified storage tank model. Proceeding of the 2nd Southeast Asia Workshop on Rock Engineering, Bangkok, Thailand: 67–72

  • Pack RT, Tarboton DG, Goodwin CN (2001) Assessing terrain stability in a GIS using SINMAP. 15th annual GIS conference, Vancouver, British Columbia, February 19–22

  • Rahardjo H, Nio AS, Leong EC, Song NY (2010) Effects of groundwater table position and soil properties on stability of slope during rainfall. J Geotech Geoenviron 136(11):1555–1564

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reid ME (1994) A pore-pressure diffusion model for estimating landslide-inducing rainfall. J Geol 102(6):709–717

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosi A, Segoni S, Catani F, Casagli N (2012) Statistical and environmental analyses for the definition of a regional rainfall threshold system for landslide triggering in Tuscany (Italy). J Geogr Sci 22(4):617–629

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schaap MG, Van Genuchten MT (2006) A modified Mualem–van Genuchten formulation for improved description of the hydraulic conductivity near saturation. Vadose Zone J 5(1):27–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Takahashi K (2004) Research of underground water numerical analysis method that considering water cycle system. PhD thesis. Kyoto University, Japan

  • Tricker AS (1978) The infiltration cylinder: some comments on its use. J Hydrol 36(3):383–391

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsai TL, Tsai PY, Yang PJ (2015) Probabilistic modeling of rainfall-induced shallow landslide using a point-estimate method. Environ Earth Sci 73(8):4109–4117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walker SH, Duncan DB (1967) Estimation of the probability of an event as a function of several independent variables. Biometrika 54:167–179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang G, Sassa K (2003) Pore-pressure generation and movement of rainfall-induced landslides: effects of grain size and fine-particle content. Eng Geol 69:109–125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang X, You X (2013) Estimating parameters of van Genuchten model for soil water retention curve by intelligent algorithms. Appl Math Inform Sci 7(5):1977–1983

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang QG, Huang RQ, Liu YX, XP S, Li GQ, Nie W (2016) A physically-based geometry model for transport distance estimation of rainfall-eroded soil sediment. Appl Sci 6:34

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We appreciate the support from the Opening Fund of State Key Laboratory of Geo-hazard Prevention and Geo-environment Protection (Chengdu University of Technology)-SKLGP2017K006, and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation-2017M620048 the suggestions from Dr. Miloš Marjanović (University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Chair of Geotechnics).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Geo-hazard Prevention and Geo-environment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610059, China

    Wen Nie

  2. Quanzhou Institute of Equipment Manufacturing, Haixi Institutes, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Quanzhou, 362200, China

    Wen Nie

  3. School of Civil Engineering, Shijiazhuang Tiedao University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, 050043, China

    Dan Feng

  4. Department of Hydrology, Water Management and Water Protection, University of Braunschweig, 38106, Braunschweig, Germany

    Worapong Lohpaisankrit

  5. Department of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, RWTH Aachen University, 52064, Aachen, Germany

    Cheng Li

  6. Engineering Risk Analysis Group, Technical University of Munich, 80333, Munich, Germany

    Ji Yuan

  7. Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

    Yulong Chen

Authors
  1. Wen Nie
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Dan Feng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Worapong Lohpaisankrit
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Cheng Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Ji Yuan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Yulong Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yulong Chen.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Nie, W., Feng, D., Lohpaisankrit, W. et al. A dynamic Bayesian network-based model for evaluating rainfall-induced landslides. Bull Eng Geol Environ 78, 2069–2080 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-017-1221-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-017-1221-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation