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Triggering of landslides in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) and prediction by the rainfall intensity and duration method

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Abstract

Prediction of the triggering of landslides across a vast territory is not possible using the rainfall intensity and duration method due to the many uncertainties in terms of forecasts, the exact location of rainfall and the heterogeneity of the terrain due to various external factors. However, it is possible to determine the trigger threshold for a specific landslide or for a relatively small area with homogeneous characteristics. By comparing the behaviour of a landslide with the trigger threshold for the region, it is possible to determine the degree of susceptibility to rainfall of the landslide zone and therefore identify any abnormal behaviour. This information allows for the identification of causes related to external factors such as human activities and karstification.

Résumé

Il n’est pas possible de prédire le déclenchement de glissements de terrain sur un vaste territoire à partir d’une méthode basée sur la durée et l’intensité des précipitations en raison d’incertitudes sur la qualité des prévisions, sur la localisation exacte des pluies et sur l’hétérogénéité du terrain résultant de divers facteurs extérieurs. Il est toutefois possible de déterminer le seuil de déclenchement d’un type particulier de glissement de terrain dans une zone relativement peu étendue et présentant des caractéristiques homogènes. Par comparaison du comportement d’un glissement de terrain avec le seuil de déclenchement pour la région, il est possible de déterminer le degré de susceptibilité aux précipitations de la zone de glissement, et donc d’identifier tout comportement anormal. Cette information permet la détermination des causes associées à des facteurs extérieurs comme les activités humaines ou la karstification.

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Acknowledgements

Special thanks go to Luigi Tunesi Ingegneria SA in Pregassona-Lugano, Switzerland, for providing the important study entitled “Curve d’intensità di pioggia per il Cantone Ticino, 2002” (rainfall intensity curves for Canton Ticino, 2002).

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  1. Studio di Geologia e Geotecnica Ing., Pedrozzi Associati SA, 6963, Pregassona-Lugano, Switzerland

    G. Pedrozzi

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  1. G. Pedrozzi
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Correspondence to G. Pedrozzi.

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Pedrozzi, G. Triggering of landslides in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) and prediction by the rainfall intensity and duration method. Bull Eng Geol Environ 63, 281–291 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-004-0240-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-004-0240-y

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