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Drinking-water treatment, climate change, and childhood gastrointestinal illness projections for northern Wisconsin (USA) communities drinking untreated groundwater

Traitement de l’eau potable, changement climatique, et projections des maladies gastro-intestinales chez l’enfant dans les collectivités du nord du Wisconsin (Etats-Unis d’Amérique) buvant de l’eau souterraine non traitée

Tratamiento de agua potable, cambio climático y enfermedades gastrointestinales infantiles en las comunidades del norte de Wisconsin (EE.UU.) que beben agua subterránea no tratada

对(美国)威斯康星州北部社区饮用未处理的地下水进行的饮用水处理、气候变化及童年胃肠疾病的预测

Projeções de tratamento de água para consumo, mudança climática e doenças gastrointestinais em comunidades do Norte de Winsconsin (EUA) consumindo água subterrânea não tratada

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Abstract

This study examined the relative importance of climate change and drinking-water treatment for gastrointestinal illness incidence in children (age <5 years) from period 2046–2065 compared to 1991–2010. The northern Wisconsin (USA) study focused on municipalities distributing untreated groundwater. A time-series analysis first quantified the observed (1991–2010) precipitation and gastrointestinal illness associations after controlling for seasonality and temporal trends. Precipitation likely transported pathogens into drinking-water sources or into leaking water-distribution networks. Building on observed relationships, the second analysis projected how climate change and drinking-water treatment installation may alter gastrointestinal illness incidence. Future precipitation values were modeled by 13 global climate models and three greenhouse-gas emissions levels. The second analysis was rerun using three pathways: (1) only climate change, (2) climate change and the same slow pace of treatment installation observed over 1991–2010, and (3) climate change and the rapid rate of installation observed over 2011–2016. The results illustrate the risks that climate change presents to small rural groundwater municipalities without drinking water treatment. Climate-change-related seasonal precipitation changes will marginally increase the gastrointestinal illness incidence rate (mean: ∼1.5%, range: −3.6–4.3%). A slow pace of treatment installation somewhat decreased precipitation-associated gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ∼3.0%, range: 0.2–7.8%) in spite of climate change. The rapid treatment installation rate largely decreases the gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ∼82.0%, range: 82.0–83.0%).

Résumé

Cette étude a examiné l’importance relative du changement climatique et du traitement de l’eau potable pour l’incidence de la maladie gastro-intestinale chez les enfants (<5 ans) de la période 2046–2065 par rapport à 1991–2010. L’étude du nord du Wisconsin (Etats-Unis d’Amérique) a porté sur les municipalités qui distribuent de l’eau souterraine non traitée. Une analyse de séries chronologiques a d’abord quantifié les précipitations observées (1991–2010) et les associations avec des maladies gastro-intestinales après un contrôle de la saisonnalité et les tendances temporelles. Les précipitations ont probablement transporté des pathogènes vers des sources d’eau potable ou vers des réseaux de distribution d’eau comportant des fuites. S’appuyant sur les relations observées, la deuxième analyse a montré comment le changement climatique et des installations de traitement de l’eau potable pourraient modifier l’incidence des maladies gastro-intestinales. Les précipitations futures ont été modélisées à l’aide de 13 modèles climatiques globaux et trois niveaux d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre. La deuxième analyse a été relancée en utilisant trois voies : (1) le changement climatique seulement, (2) le changement climatique et la même allure lente de déploiement des installations de traitement observée sur la période 1991–2010, et (3) le changement climatique et un rythme rapide de déploiement d’installations de traitement observé sur la période 2011–2016. Les résultats illustrent les risques que présentent le changement climatique pour les petites municipalités rurales alimentées par les eaux souterraines sans traitement d’eau potable. Les changements de précipitations saisonniers liés au changement climatique augmenteront légèrement le taux d’incidence de la maladie gastro-intestinale (moyenne: ∼1.5%, gamme: −3.6–4.3%). Un lent déploiement des installations de traitement conduit à une légère diminution de l’incidence de la maladie gastro-intestinale associée aux précipitations (moyenne: ∼ 3.0%, gamme: 0.2–7.8%) malgré le changement climatique. Un taux rapide d’installations de traitement de l’eau diminue largement l’incidence de la maladie gastro-intestinale (moyenne: ∼82.0%, gamme: 82.0–83.0%).

Resumen

Este estudio examinó la importancia relativa del cambio climático y el tratamiento del agua potable para la incidencia de enfermedades gastrointestinales en niños (edad <5 años) del período 2046–2065 en comparación con 1991–2010. El estudio en Wisconsin del norte (EE UU), se centró en los municipios que distribuían agua subterránea no tratada. Un análisis de series de tiempo cuantificó primero las asociaciones de precipitación y enfermedad gastrointestinal observadas (1991–2010) después de controlar la estacionalidad y las tendencias temporales. Es probable que la precipitación transportara patógenos a fuentes de agua potable o a redes de distribución de agua con filtraciones. Sobre la base de las relaciones observadas, el segundo análisis proyecta cómo el cambio climático y la instalación de tratamiento de agua potable puede alterar la incidencia de enfermedades gastrointestinales. Los futuros valores de precipitación fueron modelados por 13 modelos climáticos globales y tres niveles de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El segundo análisis se reanudó utilizando tres trayectorias: (1) sólo el cambio climático, (2) el cambio climático y el mismo ritmo lento de instalación de tratamiento observado durante 1991–2010, y (3) el cambio climático y la rápida instalación observada durante el período 2011–2016. Los resultados ilustran los riesgos que el cambio climático presenta a las pequeñas municipalidades rurales con agua potable de aguas subterráneas sin tratamiento. Los cambios de precipitación estacional relacionados con el cambio climático aumentarán marginalmente la tasa de incidencia de la enfermedad gastrointestinal (media: ∼ 1.5%, rango: −3.6–4.3%). Un ritmo lento de la instalación de tratamiento disminuyó ligeramente la incidencia de la enfermedad gastrointestinal asociada a la precipitación (media: ∼ 3.0%, rango: 0.2–7.8%) a pesar del cambio climático. La tasa de instalación rápida del tratamiento disminuye en gran medida la incidencia de la enfermedad gastrointestinal (media: ∼ 82.0%, rango: 82.0–83.0%).

摘要

本研究论述了2046–2065年与1991–2010年相比,气候变化和童年(小于5岁)期胃肠疾病发生率饮用水处理的相对重要性。在(美国)威斯康星州北部进行的研究集中在提供未处理地下水的社区。时间序数分析首次量化了观测到(1991–2010年)的降水和季节性及时间趋势控制后胃肠疾病的关联性。降水很可能传输病原体到饮用水源中或渗漏的供水网络中。在观测的关系基础上,二阶分析预测了气候变化和饮用水处理装置是怎样可能改变胃肠疾病发生率的。采用13个全球气候模型和三个温室气体排放标准模拟了未来的降水值。采用三个途径再进行二阶分析:(1)单单气候变化;(2)气候变化及1991–2010年观测到的处理装置相同的缓慢步伐;(3)气候变化及2011–2016年观测到的快速的装置比率。结果描述了气候变化对饮用水未处理的、采用地下水的小的乡村社区的风险。气候变化相关的季节性降水变化将最低限度地增加胃肠疾病的发病率(平均值:∼1.5%,范围:–3.6–4.3%)。 尽管有气候变化,但处理装置的缓慢步伐多少降低了降水相关的胃肠疾病发病率(平均值:∼3.0%,范围:0.2–7.8%)。快速的处理装置率大大降低了胃肠疾病的发病率(平均值:∼82.0%,范围:82.0–83.0%)

Resumo

Esse estudo investigou a importância relativa das mudanças climáticas e do tratamento da água para abastecimento na incidência de doenças gastrointestinais em crianças (idade < 5 anos) para o período 2046–2065 comparado a 1991–2010. O estudo no norte de Winsconsin (EUA) focou em municípios que distribuem água subterrânea não tratada. Uma análise de séries temporais quantificou as associações entre precipitação e doenças gastrointestinais observadas (1991–2010) após controle da sazonalidade e tendências temporais. A precipitação provavelmente transportou patógenos nas fontes de água para abastecimento ou nas redes de distribuição de água com vazamentos. Construída a partir de relações observadas, a segunda análise previu como as mudanças climáticas e a instalação do tratamento da água para abastecimento podem alterar a incidência de doenças gastrointestinais. Valores futuros de precipitação foram modelados por 13 modelos climáticos globais e três níveis de emissões de gases de efeito estufa. A segunda análise foi refeita utilizando três caminhos: (1) apenas mudanças climáticas, (2) mudanças climáticas e o mesmo passo lento na instalação do tratamento observado de 1991 a 2010, e (3) mudanças climáticas e a taxa rápida de instalação observadas de 2011 a 2016. Os resultados ilustram os riscos que as mudanças climáticas apresentam para municípios rurais que utilizam águas subterrâneas sem tratamento de água para abastecimento. Mudanças na precipitação sazonal relacionada às mudanças climáticas aumentarão marginalmente a taxa de incidência de doenças gastrointestinais (média: ∼1.5%, alcance: –3.6–4.3%). Um passo lento na instalação do tratamento de alguma forma diminui a incidência de doenças gastrointestinais associadas a precipitação (média: ∼3.0%, alcance: 0.2–7.8%) apesar das mudanças climáticas. Uma taxa rápida de instalação do tratamento diminui profundamente a incidência de doenças gastrointestinais (média: ∼82.0%, alcance: 82.0–83.0%).

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Acknowledgements

This work was partially supported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (grant 1U01EH000428-01) and National PERISHIP Dissertation Fellowship funded by The National Science Foundation, University of Colorado Natural Hazards Center, Swiss Re, and the Public Entity Risk Institute. Stephen Vavrus, Kevin Braun, and Ruben Behnke kindly shared the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts climate projections. We thank Mark A. Borchardt, Joan B. Rose, and anonymous reviewers whose comments significantly improved the article.

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  1. Department of Geography, Florida State University, Bellamy Building Room 323, 113 Collegiate Loop, PO BOX 3062190, Tallahassee, FL, 32306, USA

    Christopher K. Uejio

  2. Wisconsin Department of Health Services, 1 West Wilson St, Madison, WI, 53701, USA

    Megan Christenson & Colleen Moran

  3. Children’s Hospital of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Campus, 8915 W. Connell Ct., Milwaukee, WI, 53226, USA

    Mark Gorelick

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  1. Christopher K. Uejio
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Correspondence to Christopher K. Uejio.

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Uejio, C.K., Christenson, M., Moran, C. et al. Drinking-water treatment, climate change, and childhood gastrointestinal illness projections for northern Wisconsin (USA) communities drinking untreated groundwater. Hydrogeol J 25, 969–979 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-016-1521-9

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