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Episodic recharge and climate change in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

Recharge épisodique et changement climatique dans le Murray-Darling Basin, Australie

Recarga episódica y cambio climático en la cuenca de Murray-Darling, Australia

澳大利亚Murray-Darling盆地地下水的间歇性补给及气候变化研究

Recarga episódica e alterações climáticas na Bacia de Murray-Darling, Austrália

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Abstract

In semi-arid areas, episodic recharge can form a significant part of overall recharge, dependant upon infrequent rainfall events. With climate change projections suggesting changes in future rainfall magnitude and intensity, groundwater recharge in semi-arid areas is likely to be affected disproportionately by climate change. This study sought to investigate projected changes in episodic recharge in arid areas of the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, using three global warming scenarios from 15 different global climate models (GCMs) for a 2030 climate. Two metrics were used to investigate episodic recharge: at the annual scale the coefficient of variation was used, and at the daily scale the proportion of recharge in the highest 1% of daily recharge. The metrics were proportional to each other but were inconclusive as to whether episodic recharge was to increase or decrease in this environment; this is not a surprising result considering the spread in recharge projections from the 45 scenarios. The results showed that the change in the low probability of exceedance rainfall events was a better predictor of the change in total recharge than the change in total rainfall, which has implications for the selection of GCMs used in impact studies and the way GCM results are downscaled.

Résumé

Dans les régions semi arides la recharge épisodique peut constituer une partie importante de la recharge totale dépendant d’épisodes pluvieux rares. Avec des prévisions de changement climatique suggérant de futurs changements d’ampleur et d’intensité des précipitations, la recharge de nappe dans les régions semi arides sera vraisemblablement affectée de façon disproportionnée par le changement climatique. Cette étude cherchait à examiner les changements liés à une recharge épisodique dans les zones arides du Murray-Darling Basin, Australie, en utilisant trois scénarios de réchauffement global tirés de 15 modèles différents (GCMs) du climat 2030. Deux grandeurs ont été utilisées pour examiner la recharge épisodique: le coefficient de variation à l’échelle de l’année, et le pourcentage de recharge au plus haut 1% du jour à l’échelle journalière. Les grandeurs étaient proportionnelles mais ne permettaient pas de conclure si la recharge épisodique devait ou non augmenter dans cet environnement; ceci n’est pas un résultat surprenant étant donnée la dispersion des projections de recharge des 45 scénarios. Les résultats ont montré que le changement dans la probabilité basse d’un excédent des événements pluvieux était un meilleur indicateur du changement de recharge totale que le changement de précipitation totale, ce qui a des implications dans la sélection des GCM utilisés dans les études d’impact et la façon dont les résultats du GCM sont réduits.

Resumen

En áreas semiáridas la recarga episódica puede formar una parte significativa de la recarga total, dependiendo de los eventos infrecuentes de las precipitaciones. Con las proyecciones de cambio climático sugiriendo cambios en las intensidades y magnitudes de las futuras precipitaciones, probablemente la recarga del agua subterránea en área semiáridas se verá afectada desproporcionadamente por el cambio climático. Este estudio buscó investigar los cambios proyectados en la recarga episódica en áreas áridas de la cuenca Murray-Darling, Australia, usando tres escenarios de calentamiento global a partir de 15 diferentes modelos climáticos globales (GCMs) para el clima en 2030. Se utilizaron dos métricas para investigar la recarga episódica: en escala anual se usó el coeficiente de variación, y en la escala diaria la proporción de la recara en un 1% más alto de la recarga diaria. Estas métricas eran recíprocamente proporcionales pero no fueron concluyentes acerca si la recarga episódica iba a incrementarse o disminuir en este ambiente; esto no es un resultado sorprendente considerando la amplitud en las proyecciones de la recarga a partir de 45 escenarios. Los resultados mostraron que el cambio en la baja probabilidad de eventos de excedencia de las precipitaciones fue un mejor predictor del cambio en la recarga total, lo cual tiene implicancias para la selección de GCMs usados en estudios de impacto y la manera en que los resultados del GCM son llevados a escalas más reducidas.

摘要

在半干旱地区,间歇性补给量能占到总补给量的很大一部分,取决于不频发的降雨事件。由于气候变化会导致未来降雨大小和强度的变化,半干旱地区的地下水补给很可能不成比例地受气候变化影响。本研究根据从15个不同的全球气候模型(GCMs)中选择的3个全球暖化情景,分析了2030年的气候条件,调查了澳大利亚Murray-Darling盆地干旱地区地下水间歇性补给的变化。利用两个变量来调查间歇性补给:年尺度上的变量系数以及日尺度上日补给量最高1%的补给比例。变量二者之间是成比例的,但是这个环境条件下间歇性补给量到底是增加还是降低的,则是不确定的,考虑到45个情景中补给变化的广度,这个结果并不奇怪。结果表明超过的降雨事件的低概率变化相比总的降雨变化,是更好地总补给量变化的预测方法,这对影响研究中全球气候模型的选择以及该模型结果的尺度缩小方法是非常有意义的.

Resumo

A recarga episódica em zonas semi-áridas pode constituir uma parte significativa da recarga total, dependente de eventos de precipitação raros. Com as projeções para as alterações climáticas a sugerir futuras modificações na grandeza e na intensidade da precipitação, é provável que a recarga da água subterrânea em zonas semi-áridas venha a ser afectada desproporcionadamente pelas alterações climáticas. Este estudo procurou investigar as alterações projectadas da recarga episódica em zonas áridas da Bacia de Murray-Darling, Austrália, usando três cenários de aquecimento global em 15 diferentes modelos climáticos globais (GCM) para um clima em 2030. Foram usadas duas métricas para investigar a recarga episódica: à escala anual foi usado o coeficiente de variação e à escala diária usou-se a proporção de recarga das maiores percentagens de recarga diária. As métricas foram proporcionais entre si, mas foram inconclusivas quanto à possibilidade da recarga episódica ir aumentar ou diminuir neste ambiente, o que não é um resultado surpreendente, considerando a dispersão das projeções de recarga a partir dos 45 cenários. Os resultados mostraram que as mudanças na baixa probabilidade de superação de eventos de precipitação foi um melhor preditor das modificações na recarga total, do que a mudança na precipitação total, o que tem implicações para a selecção dos GCM utilizados em estudos de impacte e na forma como os resultados de GMC são aplicados localmente.

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Acknowledgements

This work is part of the Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project, which was funded by the National Water Commission.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country National Research Flagship, CSIRO Land and Water, PMB 2, Glen Osmond, SA, 5064, Australia

    Russell S. Crosbie, James L. McCallum & Glen R. Walker

  2. CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country National Research Flagship, CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra ACT, 2601, Australia

    Francis H. S. Chiew

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  1. Russell S. Crosbie
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  2. James L. McCallum
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  4. Francis H. S. Chiew
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Correspondence to Russell S. Crosbie.

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Crosbie, R.S., McCallum, J.L., Walker, G.R. et al. Episodic recharge and climate change in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. Hydrogeol J 20, 245–261 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-011-0804-4

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