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Projected Changes in Terrestrial Carbon Storage in Europe under Climate and Land-use Change, 1990–2100

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Abstract

Changes in climate and land use, caused by socio-economic changes, greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural policies and other factors, are known to affect both natural and managed ecosystems, and will likely impact on the European terrestrial carbon balance during the coming decades. This study presents a comprehensive European Union wide (EU15 plus Norway and Switzerland, EU*) assessment of potential future changes in terrestrial carbon storage considering these effects based on four illustrative IPCC-SRES storylines (A1FI, A2, B1, B2). A process-based land vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM), adapted to include a generic representation of managed ecosystems, is forced with changing fields of land-use patterns from 1901 to 2100 to assess the effect of land-use and cover changes on the terrestrial carbon balance of Europe. The uncertainty in the future carbon balance associated with the choice of a climate change scenario is assessed by forcing LPJ-DGVM with output from four different climate models (GCMs: CGCM2, CSIRO2, HadCM3, PCM2) for the same SRES storyline. Decrease in agricultural areas and afforestation leads to simulated carbon sequestration for all land-use change scenarios with an average net uptake of 17–38 Tg C/year between 1990 and 2100, corresponding to 1.9–2.9% of the EU*s CO2 emissions over the same period. Soil carbon losses resulting from climate warming reduce or even offset carbon sequestration resulting from growth enhancement induced by climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the second half of the twenty-first century. Differences in future climate change projections among GCMs are the main cause for uncertainty in the cumulative European terrestrial carbon uptake of 4.4–10.1 Pg C between 1990 and 2100.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We are grateful to Tim Mitchell (CRU) for providing the climate data and thank all participants of the ATEAM project for three-and-a-half years of constructive discussion. This work contributes to the EU-funded project ATEAM (Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Assessment and Modelling; http://www.pik-potsdam.de/ateam; EVK2-CT−2000–00075). SZ was supported by the HSB-programme of the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany (AZ: 24–04/323;200) and the EU-funded CarboEurope-IP (GOCE-CT-2003–505572).

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  1. Markus Erhard

    Present address: European Environment Agency, Kongens Nytorv 6, 1050, Copenhagen, Denmark

  2. Stephen Sitch

    Present address: Met Office (JCHMR), Crowmarsh-Gifford, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), e.V., Telegrafenberg, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany

    Sönke Zaehle, Alberte Bondeau, Wolfgang Cramer, Markus Erhard, Stephen Sitch & Pascalle C. Smith

  2. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Orme des Merisiers, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

    Sönke Zaehle & Pascalle C. Smith

  3. Finnish Environment Institute, Box 140, 00251, Helsinki, Finland

    Timothy R. Carter

  4. Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans Knöll-Strasse 10, 07745, Jena, Germany

    I. Colin Prentice

  5. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Queen’s Road, Bristol, BS8 1RJ, UK

    I. Colin Prentice

  6. Department of Geography, Universite Catholique de Louvain, Place Pasteur 3, 1348, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

    I. Reginster & Mark D. A. Rounsevell

  7. Geobiosphere Science Centre, Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 22362, Lund, Sweden

    Benjamin Smith & Martin Sykes

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  1. Sönke Zaehle
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Correspondence to Sönke Zaehle.

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Zaehle, S., Bondeau, A., Carter, T.R. et al. Projected Changes in Terrestrial Carbon Storage in Europe under Climate and Land-use Change, 1990–2100. Ecosystems 10, 380–401 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-007-9028-9

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