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Breaking automotive modal lock-in: a choice modelling study of Jakarta commuters

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Abstract

The automotive domination in high-growth Asian conurbations is typically seen as the outcome of conventional market forces driven by income and aspirational consumer motivations. Proposed here is a more complex explanation, where path-dependent growth and associated positive feedback mechanisms underlie a staged process that evolves into a non-Pareto efficient form of market failure, inflicting a decline in the quality of urban life. Positive feedback mechanisms and imperfect information create ‘automotive modal lock-in’ (AML) forming a barrier to possible superior alternatives. This study uses a choice modelling experiment with Jakarta commuters to test the role of negative externalities in modal choice, measuring the extent to which commuters may be willing to trade off automotive use for a reduction in negative externalities. The results present an indication of how the process of AML reversal could begin.

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Notes

  1. The automotive mode of transport is taken to include the use of both automobiles and motorcycles.

  2. Feedback from the preliminary survey indicated a need to simplify this variable. Thus, commuters were informed that the percentage increases were composed of a combination of increased registration fees using the Singapore mode and a CBD entry tax.

  3. Percentage increases were derived from unpublished statistics for 2009 and 2011 collated by the Direktorat Lalu Lintas Polda Metropolitan Jakarta Raya http://www.tmcmetro.com/.

  4. The business as usual level for traffic accidents was derived from DKI traffic accident data between 2008 and 2010, and that for sickness levels was derived from the preliminary survey.

  5. Given the need to shorten the survey, this question was not repeated in the final version.

  6. Omprengan is the unofficial system of private cars being used commercially for commuting.

  7. Small three wheel ,single/two person transport.

  8. A higher 13% level of increase in traffic congestion per annum was used for the discrete choice experiment—a figure which more closely reflected the actual rate of increase in the previous several years.

  9. Motor vehicle registrations in the DKI region of Jakarta are currently increasing at the rate of 117,000 a year, indicating that a 1% reduction would decrease by 1170 vehicles per annum.

  10. Motorists at this income level are at more than twice the threshold identified by Dargay et al. (2007) as the point at which automobile ownership rises sharply.

  11. This similarity in WTP between modes according to level of income (and which is also reflected in time-related WTP shown in Table 7.13) is a phenomenon which is described in Yagi and Mohommadian’s (2008) study. They note that modelling of daily travel activity of Jakarta households in fact indicated that those with lower incomes had a greater relative utility for work-dedicated trips than higher-income households. This is explained in terms of the assumption that higher-income workers in Jakarta have more flexibility given they are likely to have, on average, fewer working hours and more days off than lower paid workers.

  12. They note that commuters will tend to reduce high travel time valuations by moving into inner city locations.

  13. Based on an average monthly salary of participants recorded in the first survey of approximately Rp7 million per month.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. QUT Business School, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

    Jeremy Webb & Clevo Wilson

  2. AMPR, QUT Business School, School of Advertising, Marketing and Public Relations, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2414, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

    Max Briggs

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  1. Jeremy Webb
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Correspondence to Max Briggs.

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Webb, J., Briggs, M. & Wilson, C. Breaking automotive modal lock-in: a choice modelling study of Jakarta commuters. Environ Econ Policy Stud 20, 47–68 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10018-017-0181-x

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